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发达国家需要“负增长”？

A new report says the global economy that sprang from the industrial revolution may not be suitable for sustainable growth in the 21st Century. The Worldwatch Institute says environmental stress, economic volatility¹ and growing social inequality are threatening prospects² for prosperity.

一份刚刚出台的报告说，工业化革命之后全球范围内盛行的经济模式，对21世纪来讲，或许不是那么适合。总部设在美国的“世界观察研究所”在一份报告中说，生态环境上的负担、经济发展过程中的波动、以及社会上的不平等现象等等，对于未来的繁荣来说，都在某种程度上构成威胁。

The report is called State of the World 2012: Moving Toward Sustainable Prosperity.

“世界观察研究所”的这份报告题为“2012年的全球概况：如何朝可持续的繁荣迈进”。

Michael Renner, co-director of the report, said, “We chose the term ‘sustainable prosperity’ because we feel that there’s a real danger that this notion of taking care of the environment is too often seen as a burden that just comes at the wrong time when we’re facing a big economic crisis. And I think it’s absolutely essential to proceed in ways that we look at both the environmental concerns and the social and economic concerns. How can we reduce the burden on the planet?”

麦克·雷纳是这份报告的负责人之一。他说：“我们选择用‘可持续的繁荣’这个词，是因为我们觉得，当遇到经济发展危机的时候，人们往往觉得环保问题是个负担，这其实是很危险的。我认为，在关注社会和经济发展的同时，同样地关注环保，是非常重要的；我们需要想的是，如何减轻地球的负担？”

For more people to lead the so-called good life, Renner said, existing resources need to be used wisely.

雷纳说，要想让更多的人都过上所谓的“高质量生活”的话，那么，就必须对现有资源的使用“量力而行”。

“Well, you know, the good life I think sort of traditionally has in Western countries been defined as a life that is built on fairly massive consumption of resources – energy, water, materials of all sorts. What we like to argue is that you can still lead a good life, just without consuming so much in the way of resources,” he said.

雷纳说：“西方国家所认定的所谓高质量的生活，是建立在大量的能源消费的基础上的，无论是能源、水源、以及所有的原材料。在我们看来，高质量的生活还是可以有保障的，但是不必要耗费这么多的能源。”

One example, he said, is better infrastructure³.

其中一个例子，他说，就是如何改善基础设施架构。

“How can our transportation system, for example, be organized so we don’t have to travel such huge distances every day just to go to jobs, go to the stores or the movies and so on. And so there are various technical and structural⁴ ways to ensure that we have a decent life,” he said.

雷纳说：“如何让我们的交通系统变得每个人都不用花这么多的时间在路上，去上班、去买东西、去看电影，如此等等。其实有好多办法可以帮助我们通过技术和架构方面的改良，来过上高质量的生活。”

He said countries need to move toward developing renewable energy and not rely on fossil fuels. He added that new oil finds in Kenya, Uganda, Ghana and other countries may not be the long-term solution to energy demands.

雷纳说，每个国家都需要朝着可持续性能源的方向发展。他说，在肯尼亚、乌干达、加纳以及其他国家发现的石油资源，对于长期来说，并不是解决办法。

“The scale that we’re talking about in terms of global consumption - these additional finds of oil are really not going to make that much of a difference. Short-term, yes, it may look pretty good. It looks good for the particular country in question because they can earn additional income if they export it. They earn additional foreign exchange. But from a global perspective it doesn’t really in sort of any meaningful way change the picture that in the longer run we’re going to run into some real serious problems,” he said.

雷纳说：“我们所说的全球范围内的消费量，靠上面说的这些新发现的石油储藏，是根本解决不了问题的。从短期上来讲可能可以，而且对相关国家来说，也不错，假如能顺利出口原油，就可以赚取不少外汇；但是从全球的角度来看，从长远来讲，不能真正解决问题。”

Renner said China, while a major consumer of fossil fuels, is also developing renewable energy resources.

雷纳表示，中国方面虽然消耗的能源量很大，但是中方同时也在发展再生能源。

“I think there is a growing recognition that there is a need to invest in alternatives. And that we need to invest in those now because it will take years and in some cases some decades to generate alternatives that are scaled where they really make the difference that we need to see,” he said.

雷纳说：“大家逐渐意识到，必须要投资于另类能源；而且现在就要开始投资，因为需要很多年、甚至几十年的时间，才能找到大规模的再生、或者是替代性能源。”

The Worldwatch Institute report recommends ‘degrowth’ in what it calls ‘over developed’ countries, and the establishment of green economies.

“世界观察研究所”的这份报告推荐在那些“过度发展”的国家里，实行所谓的“倒增长”；并开始建立绿色经济模式。

“Before we actually run into a problem where resource scarcity⁵ makes our economies basically stutter and come to a halt, let’s actually plan ahead. And let’s reduce our take on the planetary resources in a forward-looking way. So that we can actually change things according to our own schedule, according to our own priorities, rather than suddenly saying, ‘Oh, my God, we do have scarcity,’” he said.

雷纳表示：“在真正碰到问题之前、或者说是在我们的经济由于能源紧缺而停滞不前之前，我们就需要开始策划，所谓的未雨绸缪。我们需要放眼未来，节约能源，这样的话，就可以掌握主动，而不是陷于被动状态。”

Other recommendations include having more corporations that are socially and environmentally responsible; making agriculture more productive and efficient; and creating a food production system that reduces waste and is environmentally sound.

“世界观察研究所”的这份报告在做出的提示当中，还提到要加大各个公司和企业的社会和环境责任制，让农业生产变得更加高效率，在食品生产过程中减少浪费、降低环境污染。

The report also addresses the issue of population growth. The global population has surpassed 7 billion and the U.N. estimates it will reach 9 billion by 2050. However, it does not recommend population control, such as the one child policy that had been imposed by China. It says, “Over time, population growth will end and reverse” through reproductive health and equal rights for all.

这份报告同时还提到了人口增长的问题。世界各地的总人口现在已经超过了70亿。联合国方面估计，到2050年的时候，世界各地的总人口将超过90亿。不过，“世界观察研究所”并没有推荐说要实行类似中国的一胎化的人口控制政策。这个研究所在报告中说，“随着时间的推移、以及避孕和平权方面的进步，人口增长将会”自然而然地放缓下来，而且还有可能往反方向走。

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the first Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This June, city is hosting a conference on sustainable development called Rio+20. The Worldwatch Institute calls on participants to “radically change the consumer culture” and make “sustainable living” a priority.

今年是地球峰会20周年。第一届地球峰会是在巴西的里约热内卢举行的。今年6月，巴西的里约热内卢仍然要举行题为里约热内卢再加20的、主题为可持续性发展的会议。“世界观察研究所”呼吁所有与会方面都“大力改变当下的消费文化”、将“可持续性生活方式”当作重点来看。