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物莫能陷？军事专家对俄新坦克能力存疑

Russia has been showing off its new combat tank design, which officials claim is 20 years ahead of current Western designs. But military analysts¹ question those assertions, and warn the cost could be too heavy a burden for Russia’s struggling economy.

俄罗斯一直在展示最新型的坦克设计，也就是阿尔玛塔T-14主战坦克。设计者声称，它比目前西方的设计领先了20年，驾驶这种坦克就跟玩电子游戏一样。不过，军事分析家对这些说法表示怀疑，他们还警告说，这种新型坦克的造价可能给俄罗斯步履蹒跚的经济带来过于沉重的负担。

During Russia’s Victory Day military parade on May 9, as fighter jets roared overhead and thousands of troops marched through Moscow's Red Square, there was one new piece of hardware that grabbed the world’s attention – the new T-14 Armata tank.

新坦克在5月间的莫斯科二战胜利日阅兵式上亮相。

It is the trailblazer of Russia’s multi-billion dollar military modernization².

阿尔玛塔坦克是耗资数十亿美元的俄罗斯军事现代化项目的开路先锋。

Chief designer Andrei Terlikov of the company Ural Transport Machines said the Armata contains cutting-edge technology – including the first unmanned turret³.

乌拉尔车辆厂总设计师安德烈·捷尔利科夫说，阿尔玛塔配备着尖端技术，包括首座无人炮塔。

"The level of automation, the principles we put in it, the technological⁴ edge we created represent a decisive step towards more advanced unmanned machines," he said.

他说：“那种自动化程度、我们所纳入的理念、我们创造的技术，都代表着决定性的一步，迈向更先进的无人机械。”

Russia claims the Armata’s so-called explosive reactive armor or "ERA" is capable of withstanding all anti-tank rounds possessed⁵ by NATO.

俄罗斯声称，阿尔玛塔坦克的所谓爆炸反应装甲（ERA）能够顶住北约现有的所有反坦克炮火。

Chief designer Andrei Terlikov explained that the tank has an "active protection complex", which allows it to generate a counter-impact against incoming anti-tank rounds, to calculate the impact point, and lower the incoming round's impact or fully⁶ destroy it with a defensive⁷ weapon.

捷尔利科夫说：“这种坦克有一套积极保护综合系统，可以对来袭的反坦克弹产生反作用力，并计算出冲击点，减低它的冲击力或用一枚防御武器彻底摧毁它。”

The designers liken operating the tank to playing a computer game.

设计人员把驾驶这种坦克比作打电脑游戏。

Deputy chief designer Ilya Demchenko said they had a remote-controlled combat module⁸, multi-specter channels, and new algorithyms. He said it's as if the crew played a computer game. It's only left to them to take some conclusive⁹ actions, to make the decisions.

副总设计师伊利亚·杰姆琴科说：“这类装备的一个新理念是，他们有一个遥控作战模块、多通道频谱、新的算式。我不妨打个比方，这就像是车组人员在玩电脑游戏。他们需要做的只是做某些决定性的动作，去做决定。”

But the marketing¹⁰ of military hardware should always be taken with a degree of skepticism, said Henry Boyd of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

国际战略研究所的亨利·博伊德的说，在听到这类军事装备的推销宣传时，人们一定要存有几分怀疑。

“Where this puts it in comparison with contemporary Western tank design is something I think we’ll have to wait some time to get a better sense of. It’s inevitably¹¹ not going to end up with everything that is currently being advertised as possible to put on this platform, the ambition is just going to be too great. Cost will come in at some point,” he said.

他说：“在拿它跟当前西方坦克设计做比较方面，我觉得，我们还要等一些时候才能有更好地了解。目前是尽可能做宣传广告，但不可避免的是，最终配备在这个平台上的东西其实并没有那么好，雄心可能太大了。到某个节点，成本就会成为问题。”

The cost is estimated at up to $8 million per tank – the same as a light fighter jet. But Western sanctions over Russia’s intervention¹² in Ukraine, and the falling oil prices have hit the Russian economy hard.

每台坦克据估计造价最高达8百万美元，等同于一架轻型喷气式战斗机。不过，西方因俄罗斯干预乌克兰而对其实施制裁，再加上油价下跌，俄罗斯经济受到了重创。

“The nominal¹³ production process is [to begin in] 2018. Whether it even makes that is questionable,” said Boyd.

博伊德说：“名义上，生产进程将在2018年开始。能不能做到，还是个问题。”

He said it’s unlikely the Armata T-14 tank would be seen on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine – even if the fighting escalated¹⁴. But Boyd said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical doctrine¹⁵ would play a big part in the Armata’s development.

博伊德认为，即使乌克兰冲突加剧，也不大可能在乌东战场看到阿尔玛塔T-14坦克。不过，他说，普京总统的地缘政治思想将在阿尔玛塔坦克部署方面发挥重要作用。

“It is not impossible that we will see T-14 being used at the front lines of Russian intervention or quasi-intervention in its near-abroad in the not too distant future,” he said.

 “在不太远的将来，在俄罗斯在周边地区采取的干预或准干预行动中，我们看到在前线出现T-14坦克，这种情景不是不可能的。”他说。

Moscow denies direct involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. But Russia’s neighbors – and NATO – will be watching the Armata’s development closely as President Putin seeks to modernize¹⁶ the country’s vast armed forces.

莫斯科否认卷入乌克兰东部冲突。不过，阿尔玛塔坦克的部署以及总统普京将庞大的俄军进行现代化升级的努力，将受到邻国和北约的密切关注。