VOA慢速英语2016--美国少数州选民将决定总统大选

AS IT IS 2016-09-19 Voters in Just a Few States Will Decide US Presidential Election 美国少数州选民将决定总统大选

On November 8 this year, Americans across the country will vote for president. But the candidate who wins the most votes will not necessarily be the winner.

Instead, the U.S. has a complicated system called the Electoral College. In that system, each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia casts votes for the president.

Under the Electoral College, not every state is equally important. In the 2016 election – as in past elections – only a few states will really matter.

Not the biggest states. Not the most heavily populated states. The swing states.

Swing states vs. safe states

In the last four elections, eighty percent of U.S. states selected the presidential candidate from the same political party every time.

For example, the majority of voters in the states of Alaska and Idaho consistently voted for the Republican presidential candidate. The majority of voters in the states of Minnesota and New York consistently voted for the Democrat¹.

As a result, the candidates do not usually spend much time or money campaigning in those “safe states.” Instead, they focus on the swing states, where no one knows which candidate is likely to win.

In 2016, the swing states are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

None is more important than Ohio. That state has voted for every winning presidential candidate since 1964.

Of course, most voters will mark ballots³ in safe states, not swing states. And because all but two states follow a winner-takes-all rule, most states go to the candidate whom the majority of voters choose.

So, a voter in Minnesota could mark a ballot² for Republican Donald Trump⁴. But, most other Minnesota voters will probably choose Democrat Hillary Clinton. As a result, all of Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes will go to Clinton, and the Republican voter’s ballot will not really do anything to help Trump.

However, the voter's other choices may affect candidates for state and local offices. So it is important that people in safe states vote, too.

Are the Democrats⁵ one swing state away from winning?

At this moment in history, the Electoral College system helps the Democrats. That is because states with the largest populations have recently voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. And, the more people a state has, the more votes it gets in the Electoral College.

The Washington Post newspaper notes that “the Democratic nominee⁶ begins at a significant advantage over the Republican one.” It says the Democrats have the advantage no matter who the party’s candidate is.

Consider the numbers. A candidate needs 270 out of 538 Electoral College votes to become president.

In the last six presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has won the same 19 states plus Washington, DC each time. Those areas together carry 242 Electoral College votes.

If Democrat Hillary Clinton can win those areas this year, plus the swing state of Florida, she will earn 271 Electoral College votes –one more than she needs to win the presidency⁷.

Republican Donald Trump has a harder path to victory. Thirteen states voted for the Republican candidate in each of the last six presidential elections. But many of them are small states. They have a total of only 102 electoral votes.

As a result, Donald Trump must not only win those 13 states. He must also win several swing states – or even some traditionally Democratic states – to reach the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.

Will Donald Trump change the map this year?

Some Republicans are worried that Trump’s path to victory may be even harder than that. The website TheWeek.com noted⁸ that Trump may do worse than lose the swing states this year. He may also lose some of the states that Republicans have historically won.

You see, although Trump is very popular with some voters, he is equally unpopular with others. As a result, some voters who usually choose the Republican candidate may choose the Democrat.

The Washington Post newspaper reports that some political experts are preparing to blame Donald Trump if the Republicans fail to win the presidency. But Post writer Chris Cillizza says the Republican Party has a problem that “goes deeper than Trump -- or any one candidate.”

Cillizza says the real reason may be that the Republican Party has not been able to convince the increasing number of nonwhites in the U.S. to vote for its presidential candidates. He writes: “What has become increasingly clear is that any state with a large or growing nonwhite population has become more and more difficult for Republicans to win.”

Words in This Story

cast – v. to make (a vote) formally

consistently – adv. always acting or behaving in the same way

winner-takes-all – expression a system in which the winner of the most votes in a state wins all of the electoral votes from that state

1 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

2 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

3 ballots   

n.投票表决( ballot的名词复数 )；选举；选票；投票总数v.（使）投票表决( ballot的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They're counting the ballots. 他们正在计算选票。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The news of rigged ballots has rubbed off much of the shine of their election victory. 他们操纵选票的消息使他们在选举中获得的胜利大为减色。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

5 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

7 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

8 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。