2020年经济学人 危机中的意大利(1)

Few people would wish to trade places with Giuseppe Conte, Italy's prime minister.

没什么人愿意和意大利总理朱塞佩·孔特交换位置。

As covid-19 spread he put the entire country into lockdown for the first time since the second world war.

随着covid-19的传播，整个国家自二战以来第一次进入了禁闭状态。

Now he must try to contain the economic effects. But he is finding that tackling them also depends on lenders and Europe's institutions.

现在他必须设法控制经济影响。但他发现，解决这些问题也依赖于放贷机构和欧洲机构。

The immediate¹ prognosis is a severe contraction². Economists⁴ at JPMorgan Chase, a bank,

目前的形势预报是严重收缩。摩根大通银行的经济学家预测

expect GDP to fall at an annualised rate of 7.5% in the first quarter of the year.

按年率计算，今年第一季度的GDP将下降7.5%。

The hope at least is that recovery is rapid.

至少希望经济能够得到迅速的复苏。

To that end, Mr Conte said on March 11th that he would set aside 25bn euro ($28bn, or 1.4% of GDP)

为此，孔特在3月11日表示，他将拨出250亿欧元（280亿美元，占GDP1.4 %）

in order to cushion the epidemic⁵'s economic effects.

以缓冲流行病的经济影响。

The precise measures were yet to be agreed as The Economist³ went to press,

在刊付印之际，具体的措施尚未达成一致，

but were expected to include compensation for companies that lose revenues and workers who are laid off.

但预计将包括对失去营业收入的公司和下岗工人的补偿。

Ministers have also promised to help banks suspend repayments⁶ on mortgages and small-business loans for a year.

部长们还承诺帮助银行在一年内暂停偿还抵押贷款和小企业贷款。

As people fall ill and quarantines are imposed, businesses and households face abrupt⁷ disruptions to their income.

生病的人被强制隔离，企业和家庭的收入会突然中断。

That means quick fixes are in high demand. Unlike public-spending measures,

这意味着对快速解决问题方法的需求很高。与公共支出措施不同，

bank forbearance does not need legislation, and so can take immediate effect.

银行宽限不需要立法，因此可以立即生效。

But Italy's lenders, which already have higher non-performing loan ratios than the euro-area average,

但意大利的放贷机构（这些机构的不良贷款率已经高于欧元区平均水平）警告称，

warn that they cannot cope with the loss in interest income unless the government guarantees unpaid⁸ loans,

除非政府为未偿还贷款提供担保，否则他们无法应对利息收入的损失，

so that they do not have to hold more provisions.

这样他们就不必持有更多准备金。

In any case, leniency⁹ from lenders will help some of those most disrupted by the epidemic, but not all.

无论如何，放贷机构的宽容会帮助一些受疫情影响最严重的人，但不是所有人。

Small firms, which are more likely to rely on bank finance, will benefit. But only 15% of Italian households have mortgages.

更倾向于依靠银行融资的小企业将从中受益。但是只有15%的意大利家庭有房屋贷款。

The neediest, says Tito Boeri, a former head of the social-security administration, cannot take out loans in the first place.

社会保障署前署长表示，最需要帮助的人一开始就无法获得贷款。

More helpful would be to extend unemployment benefit to cover the self-employed, who make up a fifth of the workforce¹⁰,

更帮助的做法是将失业救济金扩大到占劳动力五分之一的个体经营者

and temporary workers whose contracts are due to expire. For as long as the outbreak lasts,

和合同即将到期的临时工。只要疫情持续，

benefits will need to be unconditional¹¹ and generous, notes Francesco Giavazzi of Bocconi University.

福利就必须是无条件且慷慨的，博科尼大学的弗朗切斯科·贾瓦齐说到。

If they are too stingy, people will start hoarding¹² cash, fearing that the government could withdraw its support.

如果过于吝啬，人们就会开始囤积现金，担心政府可能会撤回对他们的支持。

1 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

2 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

6 repayments   

偿还，报答，偿付的钱物( repayment的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The repayments of the loan are spread over 10 years. 贷款可在十年内分期偿还。
• The repayments of the loan are spread over 25 years. 这笔贷款分摊二十五年偿还。

7 abrupt   

adj.突然的，意外的；唐突的，鲁莽的

参考例句：

• The river takes an abrupt bend to the west.这河突然向西转弯。
• His abrupt reply hurt our feelings.他粗鲁的回答伤了我们的感情。

8 unpaid   

adj.未付款的，无报酬的

参考例句：

• Doctors work excessive unpaid overtime.医生过度加班却无报酬。
• He's doing a month's unpaid work experience with an engineering firm.他正在一家工程公司无偿工作一个月以获得工作经验。

9 leniency   

n.宽大（不严厉）

参考例句：

• udges are advised to show greater leniency towards first-time offenders.建议法官对初犯者宽大处理。
• Police offer leniency to criminals in return for information.警方给罪犯宽大处理以换取情报。

10 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

11 unconditional   

adj.无条件的，无限制的，绝对的

参考例句：

• The victorious army demanded unconditional surrender.胜方要求敌人无条件投降。
• My love for all my children is unconditional.我对自己所有孩子的爱都是无条件的。

12 hoarding   

n.贮藏；积蓄；临时围墙；囤积v.积蓄并储藏（某物）( hoard的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• After the war, they were shot for hoarding. 战后他们因囤积而被枪决。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Actually he had two unused ones which he was hoarding up. 其实他还藏了两片没有用呢。 来自英汉文学