2020年经济学人 从政治角度看疫情(2)

The uncertainty¹ has many sources. One is that sars-cov-2 and the disease it causes, covid-19, are not fully² understood. Another is over the status of the pandemic. In each region or country it tends to proliferate³ rapidly undetected. By the time testing detects cases in one place it will be spreading in many others, as it was in Italy, Iran and South Korea. By the time governments shut schools and ban crowds they may be too late.

不确定性有很多来源。一是SARS-CoV-2和它引起的疾病covid-19，还没有被完全了解。另一个是关于流行病的状态。在每个地区或国家，流行病往往迅速扩散而不被发现。当在一个地方检测到病例时，它将在其他许多地方传播，就像在意大利、伊朗和韩国一样。等到政府关闭学校，禁止人群进入时，可能就太晚了。

China’s solution, endorsed⁴ by the who, was to impose a brutal⁵ quarantine, bolstered⁶ by mass-testing and contact tracing. That came at a high human and economic cost, but new infections have dwindled⁷. This week, in a victory lap, President Xi Jinping visited Wuhan, where the pandemic first emerged. Yet uncertainty persists even in China, because nobody knows if a second wave of infections will rise up as the quarantine eases.

中国的解决方案得到了世界卫生组织的认可，即实施残酷的隔离，并辅以大规模检测和接触者追踪。这付出了高昂的人力和经济代价，但新的感染人数已经减少。本周，中国国家主席习近平考察了最先出现疫情的武汉。然而，即使在中国，不确定性依然存在，因为没有人知道随着隔离的放松，第二波感染是否会上升。

In democracies leaders have to judge if people will tolerate China’s harsh regime of isolation⁸ and surveillance. Italy’s lockdown is largely self-policed and does not heavily infringe⁹ people’s rights. But if it proves leakier than China’s, it may be almost as expensive and a lot less effective.

在民主国家，领导人必须判断人民是否能接受高强度的隔离。意大利的封锁在很大程度上是自我监督，并没有严重侵犯人民的权利。但是，如果事实证明措施漏洞更大，那么在成本可能几乎同样高昂的情况下，但是效果要差得多。

Efficacy also depends on the structure and competence¹⁰ of health-care systems. There is immense scope for mixed messages and inconsistent instructions about testing and when to stay isolated¹¹ at home. Every health system will be overwhelmed. Places where people receive very little health care, including refugee camps and slums, will be the most vulnerable. But even the best-resourced hospitals in rich countries will struggle.

效力还取决于卫生保健系统的结构和能力。有关检测以及何时在家隔离的混合消息和前后矛盾的指令在很大的范围都存在。各个卫生系统都将不堪重负。那些几乎没有医疗保健的地方，包括难民营和贫民窟，将会很艰难。

1 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

2 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

3 proliferate   

vi.激增，(迅速)繁殖，增生

参考例句：

• We must not proliferate nuclear arms.我们决不能扩散核武器。
• Rabbits proliferate when they have plenty of food.兔子有充足的食物就会繁衍得很快。

4 endorsed   

vt.& vi.endorse的过去式或过去分词形式v.赞同( endorse的过去式和过去分词 )；在（尤指支票的）背面签字；在（文件的）背面写评论；在广告上说本人使用并赞同某产品

参考例句：

• The committee endorsed an initiative by the chairman to enter discussion about a possible merger. 委员会通过了主席提出的新方案，开始就可能进行的并购进行讨论。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The government has broadly endorsed a research paper proposing new educational targets for 14-year-olds. 政府基本上支持建议对14 岁少年实行新教育目标的研究报告。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 brutal   

adj.残忍的，野蛮的，不讲理的

参考例句：

• She has to face the brutal reality.她不得不去面对冷酷的现实。
• They're brutal people behind their civilised veneer.他们表面上温文有礼，骨子里却是野蛮残忍。

6 bolstered   

v.支持( bolster的过去式和过去分词 )；支撑；给予必要的支持；援助

参考例句：

• He bolstered his plea with new evidence. 他举出新的证据来支持他的抗辩。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The data must be bolstered by inferences and indirect estimates of varying degrees of reliability. 这些资料必须借助于推理及可靠程度不同的间接估计。 来自辞典例句

7 dwindled   

v.逐渐变少或变小( dwindle的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Support for the party has dwindled away to nothing. 支持这个党派的人渐渐化为乌有。
• His wealth dwindled to nothingness. 他的钱财化为乌有。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

9 infringe   

v.违反，触犯，侵害

参考例句：

• The jury ruled that he had infringed no rules.陪审团裁决他没有违反任何规定。
• He occasionally infringe the law by parking near a junction.他因偶尔将车停放在交叉口附近而违反规定。

10 competence   

n.能力，胜任，称职

参考例句：

• This mess is a poor reflection on his competence.这种混乱情况说明他难当此任。
• These are matters within the competence of the court.这些是法院权限以内的事。

11 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。