2020年经济学人 约翰逊语言专栏--和冠状病毒有关的信息传达(1)

Books & arts

来源于《图书与艺术》版块

Johnson

约翰逊语言专栏

Corona-speak

和冠状病毒有关的信息传达

How to frame public health messages so people hear them

如何构建公共卫生信息，让人们听到

Imagine that America is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative responses are proposed. Assume that the consequences of the programmes are as follows: if option A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If B is chosen, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that none will be. Which would you choose?

想象一下，美国正在为一种罕见的疾病爆发做准备，这种疾病预计将导致600人死亡。提出了两种备选方案。假设两个方案的结果如下：如果选择A，将拯救200人。如果选B，则有三分之一的概率600人获救，三分之二的概率一个也救不了。你会选择哪一个？

Now assume a different pair of options. If C is implemented¹, 400 people will perish; if D is preferred, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will. Which will you choose now?

现在假设还有两个其他不同的选项。如果实施C计划，将有400人死亡；如果选择D计划，没有人死亡的概率是1 / 3，600人死亡的概率是2 / 3。你现在会选择哪一个？

If you are like most people, you chose A in the first scenario², and D in the second. If you stopped and deliberately³ did the maths, though, or have read Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, you will have noticed that the two scenarios⁴ are identical: A and C offer the same outcome, as do B and D. Mr Kahneman won the Nobel prize in economics for his pioneering work (with the late Amos Tversky) in behavioural economics, which focuses on how people’s choices are swayed by a host of factors that should not affect decision-making, but perennially⁵ do. The first two paragraphs above are taken from a survey the two researchers conducted in 1981, eerily⁶ presaging⁷ today’s pandemic.

如果你和大多数人一样，在第一种情况下选择A，在第二种情况下选择D。然而，如果你停下来，有意地计算一下，或者读过丹尼尔?卡内曼的《思考，快与慢》，你会发现这两种情况是相同的：A和C的结果是一样的，B和D也是一样的。卡内曼因其在行为经济学方面的开创性工作（与已故的阿莫斯?特沃斯基合作）而获得诺贝尔经济学奖，行为经济学关注的是人们的选择如何受到一系列因素的影响，这些因素本不应影响决策，但却始终会影响决策。上面的前两段摘自这两位研究人员在1981年进行的一项调查，它诡异地预示了如今的疫情。

The glitches⁸ in human psychology⁹ that the pair identified include “negativity bias”: bad outcomes loom¹⁰ larger in people’s minds than positive ones. That is why A appeals (“200 people will be saved”), whereas the identical but differently framed C (“400 people will die”) does not; focusing on the negative pushes three-quarters of people away from this choice. This effect interacts with another one: willingness to gamble. People will not gamble with a sure thing in hand (200 living people) but they will take a risk to avoid certain losses (400 dead).

这两位科学家发现，人类心理中的小毛病包括“消极偏见”：在人们的脑海中，消极的结果比积极的结果更突出。这就是为什么A会留下这样的印象(“200人将被拯救”)，而C会留下这样的印象(“400人将死去”)；关注负面因素会让四分之三的人远离这个选择。这种效应与另一种相互作用：赌博的意愿。人们不会拿着一件有把握的东西(200的存活人数)去赌博，但他们会冒险避免某些损失(400的死亡人数)。

1 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

2 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

3 deliberately   

adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地

参考例句：

• The girl gave the show away deliberately.女孩故意泄露秘密。
• They deliberately shifted off the argument.他们故意回避这个论点。

4 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

5 perennially   

adv.经常出现地；长期地；持久地；永久地

参考例句：

• He perennially does business abroad. 他常年在国外做生意。 来自辞典例句
• We want to know what is perennially new about the world. 我们想知道世上什么东西永远是新的。 来自互联网

6 eerily   

adv.引起神秘感或害怕地

参考例句：

• It was nearly mid-night and eerily dark all around her. 夜深了，到处是一片黑黝黝的怪影。 来自汉英文学 - 散文英译
• The vast volcanic slope was eerily reminiscent of a lunar landscape. 开阔的火山坡让人心生怪异地联想起月球的地貌。 来自辞典例句

7 presaging   

v.预示，预兆( presage的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• There is talk of the failed deal presaging a break-up. 对于交易失败的就预示着解散的说法不过是传言。 来自互联网

8 glitches   

n.小过失，差错( glitch的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Manufacturing glitches have limited the factory's output. 生产中的故障影响了该厂的产量。 来自辞典例句
• Another kind of period variation,\"Glitches,\" are seen in several pulsars. 在几个脉冲星中还看到了周期的另一种变化，即“自转突快”现象。 来自辞典例句

9 psychology   

n.心理，心理学，心理状态

参考例句：

• She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
• He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。

10 loom   

n.织布机，织机；v.隐现，(危险、忧虑等)迫近

参考例句：

• The old woman was weaving on her loom.那位老太太正在织布机上织布。
• The shuttle flies back and forth on the loom.织布机上梭子来回飞动。