2020年经济学人 精明的牵制(1)

You know by now, if you've been paying attention, that the coronavirus pandemic is,

如果大家一直在关注的话，现在你应该知道，此次冠状病毒

if not a turning point in history, then the midwife toprofound change or, at the very least, anopportunity for a bit of a rethink.

即便不是一个历史转折点，也应该是深刻变革的促成因素，或者至少是一个重新思考的机会。

Everything has changed—except, perhaps, minds. Those who expected China

一切都发生了改变——除了思想。那些预计中国

(or the European Union or shareholder¹ capitalism) to blow up are now more convinced it will.

（或欧盟或股东资本主义）会崩溃的人，现在更加确信了。

Believers in globalisation's retreat, or inflation's comeback, have fewer doubts.

相信全球化会倒退，或通胀会卷土重来的人，就没有那么多疑问了。

And if you were chary² of emerging markets you might be more so now.

如果你以前对新兴市场很谨慎，现在可能会更加谨慎。

In March, when there was a mad scramble³ for cash, the cash everyone wanted was dollars.

今年3月，当人们疯狂地争抢现金时，每个人都想要的现金是美元。

When the dollar gets bid up, it hurts emerging markets. If inflation returns, meanwhile, itwill surely show up first in the developing world.

当美元被推高时，新兴市场就会受到伤害。与此同时，如果通胀卷土重来，它肯定会首先出现在发展中国家。

Yet if these vices⁴ seem more apparent, so does the virtue⁵ of diversification⁶.

然而，如果这些缺点看起来更加明显，那么多元化的优点也一样。

The ideal diversifier is not just something other than what you own, but something thatcontrasts with it.

理想的分散投资不只是你没有的东西，而是与你所拥有的相反的东西。

The typical portfolio⁷ is rich in dollar assets—in Treasuries⁸ and the leading American shares. Itneeds a counterweight, an anti-dollar trade.

典型的投资组合是拥有丰富的美元资产——国债和美国主要股票。它需要一种牵制力，一种反美元的贸易。

A benchmark basket of emerging-market stocks is a good one.

新兴市场的一篮子基准股票是个不错的选择。

It helps that such stocks are cheap. Valuations based on company earnings⁹ are oftenmisleading at the start of recessions.

这类股票的低价是有帮助的。在经济衰退开始时，以公司盈利为基础的估值往往具有误导性。

Recent earnings figures flatter the appraisal¹⁰; forward-looking estimates of profits take time toreflect grim reality.

近期收益数据让评估结果更加乐观；对利润的前瞻性评估需要时间来反映严峻的现实。

A way around this is to use a measure that takes in company profits over the cycle:

解决这个问题的一种方法是使用一种在周期内计算公司利润的方法：

the CAPE¹¹ (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio) popularised by Robert Shiller of YaleUniversity.

由耶鲁大学的Robert Shiller所推广起来的CAPE（经周期性调整的市盈率）。

A snapshot taken at recent market lows by James Montier of GMO, an asset-management firm, shows a healthy margin¹² of safety.

资产管理公司GMO的James Montier在近期市场低点做的一个写照，显示了一个健康的安全边际。

Emerging-market shares look very cheap relative to both their history and to America'sS&P 500 index of shares.

对比其历史和美国标准普尔500指数，新兴市场的股票看起来非常便宜。

Rich-world investors¹⁴ must also consider exchange-rate risk. Forecasting currencies is a mug'sgame.

发达国家的投资者也必须考虑汇率风险。预测货币是一件费力不讨好的事。

Even so, a shrewd investor¹³ should at least check she is not buying a currency that isobviously riding high, and thus at greater risk of a dramatic fall.

即便如此，精明的投资者至少应该检查一下自己是否在买入一种明显走高、因而面临大幅下跌风险更大的货币。

1 shareholder   

n.股东，股票持有人

参考例句：

• The account department have prepare a financial statement for the shareholder.财务部为股东准备了一份财务报表。
• A shareholder may transfer his shares in accordance with the law.股东持有的股份可以依法转让。

2 chary   

adj.谨慎的，细心的

参考例句：

• She started a chary descent of the stairs.她开始小心翼翼地下楼梯。
• She is chary of strangers.她见到陌生人会害羞。

3 scramble   

v.爬行，攀爬，杂乱蔓延，碎片，片段，废料

参考例句：

• He broke his leg in his scramble down the wall.他爬墙摔断了腿。
• It was a long scramble to the top of the hill.到山顶须要爬登一段长路。

4 vices   

缺陷( vice的名词复数 )； 恶习； 不道德行为； 台钳

参考例句：

• In spite of his vices, he was loved by all. 尽管他有缺点，还是受到大家的爱戴。
• He vituperated from the pulpit the vices of the court. 他在教堂的讲坛上责骂宫廷的罪恶。

5 virtue   

n.德行，美德；贞操；优点；功效，效力

参考例句：

• He was considered to be a paragon of virtue.他被认为是品德尽善尽美的典范。
• You need to decorate your mind with virtue.你应该用德行美化心灵。

6 diversification   

n.变化，多样化；多种经营

参考例句：

• The seminar was to discuss diversification of agriculture. 该研讨会讨论的是农业多种经营。 来自辞典例句
• Firm diversification is increasingly achieved by the means of takeover and merger. 通过接管和兼并，厂商经营范围日益多样化。 来自辞典例句

7 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

8 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

9 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

10 appraisal   

n.对…作出的评价；评价，鉴定，评估

参考例句：

• What's your appraisal of the situation?你对局势是如何评估的？
• We need to make a proper appraisal of his work.对于他的工作我们需要做出适当的评价。

11 cape   

n.海角，岬；披肩，短披风

参考例句：

• I long for a trip to the Cape of Good Hope.我渴望到好望角去旅行。
• She was wearing a cape over her dress.她在外套上披着一件披肩。

12 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

13 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

14 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会