2020年经济学人 经济统计学——危机措施(2)

America's GDP was first estimated to have fallen at an annual rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared with the previous three months.

在2008年，初步预测，与前个三月相比，美国第四季度GDP增长率下降将3.8%。

That was eventually revised to a decline of more than 8%,

最终该数据修正为下降超过8%，

in part because statisticians' guesses for some manufacturing inventories¹ for the month of December were too optimistic.

部分原因是因为统计学家对12月份制造业库存资产的猜测过于乐观。

During the pandemic, these problems have been turned up a notch². Many businesses have temporarily stopped trading and thus responding to surveys.

在疫情时期，这些问题已经上升了一个级别。很多企业暂停贸易，以应对调查。

The sectors³ of the economy most affected⁴ by lockdowns, such as education, leisure and hospitality,

包括教育、休闲和酒店业在内的经济部门受封锁影响最大，

often have the longest lags in reporting, making early estimates especially unreliable. In some cases, collecting data is impossible.

通常他们报告的滞后期也最长，这使得早期预测尤不可靠。在一些情况中，收集数据是不可能的。

In Britain a survey of travellers at airports and ports, which helps measure activity accounting⁵ for 20% of its trade in services, was halted in March.

在英国，一项针对机场和港口游客的调查在3月被叫停，该调查可以帮助衡量占其服务贸易20%的经济活动。

In response, statisticians are making quick fixes. In America the output of public-education services is usually estimated using teachers' pay.

统计学家门通过进行快速修补做出回应。在美国，公共教育服务的产出通常是根据教师们的收入做出预测的。

But statisticians have weakened the link between pay and measured activity to reflect the fact that, though teachers continue to receive salaries,

但是统计学家们弱化了工资和可测量活动之间的联系，以此反映出这样一个事实，即虽然老师继续领工资，

students have missed hours of instruction. Others are using conversations with companies, statistical⁶ techniques and guesswork to fill in gaps.

但学生们却已经缺课很多个小时了。其他人则利用和公司对话、统计技术以及臆测来填补空白。

Many are also looking to make more drastic changes by incorporating "realtime" data.

还有很多统计学家希望通过合并“实时”数据来做出更大的改变。

Timely figures ranging from restaurant reservations to prices on Amazon are already widely used by private-sector economists⁷.

私营部门的经济学家已经广泛使用餐厅预订和亚马逊商品价格等实时数据了。

Institutional inertia⁸ and tight budgets had led many statistics offices to shun⁹ them; now they have little choice but to experiment.

制度上的惰性以及紧缩的预算导致很多统计局回避这些数据；现在他们除了进行尝试，别无选择。

A handful of those in the European Union are using credit-card data to help measure GDP.

一些欧盟国家的统计局正在使用信用卡数据帮助衡量GDP。

In place of the survey of international travellers, the ONS is looking at passenger numbers from the aviation regulator,

ONS正在研究航空监管机构、轮渡以及欧洲之星车站的乘客人数和气象数据

ferries and the Eurostar-as well as meteorological data. Other statisticians are scraping web pages.

以此替代针对国际游客的调查。其他数据分析师正在抓取网页。

Things are tough now, but the wonks could emerge from the pandemic with a better understanding of how the economy really works.

现在情况仍然艰难，但学院派们可能会摆脱疫情的影响，对经济真正的运作方式有一个更好的认识。

1 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

2 notch   

n.(V字形)槽口，缺口，等级

参考例句：

• The peanuts they grow are top-notch.他们种的花生是拔尖的。
• He cut a notch in the stick with a sharp knife.他用利刃在棒上刻了一个凹痕。

3 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

4 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

5 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

6 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

7 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 inertia   

adj.惰性，惯性，懒惰，迟钝

参考例句：

• We had a feeling of inertia in the afternoon.下午我们感觉很懒。
• Inertia carried the plane onto the ground.飞机靠惯性着陆。

9 shun   

vt.避开，回避，避免

参考例句：

• Materialists face truth,whereas idealists shun it.唯物主义者面向真理，唯心主义者则逃避真理。
• This extremist organization has shunned conventional politics.这个极端主义组织有意避开了传统政治。