2020年经济学人 美国大选如何影响股市(2)

Investors¹ appear to be especially keen on downside protection around this election. In September Cameron Crise, a strategist at Bloomberg, wrote that VIX futures² markets have "never had an event risk command this sort of premium³". Even more unusually, VIX futures prices are elevated not just around the date of the election, but for the months between the vote on November 3rd and the inauguration⁴ on January 21st.

在这次大选期间，投资者似乎尤其热衷于“下档保护”。今年9月，彭博（美国财经资讯公司）策略师卡梅伦·克里兹写道，VIX期货市场“从未有过事件风险导致如此高的溢价”。更不寻常的是，VIX期货价格不仅在大选前后上涨了，在11月3日投票到1月21日就职典礼之间的几个月里也在上涨。

There are plenty of reasons for investors to worry about post-election chaos⁵: the coronavirus pandemic means an enormous number of voters will opt⁶ to avoid crowded polling stations this year and send their ballots⁷ in by post instead. These votes can take longer to count, raising the prospect⁸ of a period without a clear winner. Even once a victor is declared, a slew⁹ of lawsuits¹⁰ may follow. The uncertainty¹¹ is exacerbated¹² by President Donald Trump¹³'s suggestion that postal¹⁴ ballots may be fraudulent, and his reluctance¹⁵ to say that he will accept the election result.

投资者有很多理由担心选举后的混乱局面：新冠肺炎这一流行病意味着今年将有大量选民会选择避开拥挤的投票站转向邮寄投票。这些选票可能需要更长的时间来计票，增加了一段时期内获胜者不明的可能性。即使结果出来了，随之而来的也可能是一系列的诉讼。唐纳德·特朗普总统暗示邮寄选票可能是伪造的，而且表明自己将不接受选举结果，使得不确定性加剧。

The nearest guide to market reaction in such a situation would be to look at the contest between Al Gore¹⁶ and George Bush in 2000, which was too close to call on election day and involved recounts and lawsuits. Markets dropped by 1.6% the day after the election as it became clear there was no decisive winner. The S&P 500 sank by more than 8% by the end of the year—though at least some of that probably re-flects the beginnings of the dotcom bust¹⁷.

要了解市场在这种情况下的反应，最直接的方法就是看看2000年阿尔·戈尔和乔治·布什之间的竞争。当时在选举日，双方势利难分，还涉及重新计票和诉讼。大选后的第二天，由于尚未确定获胜者，市场下跌了1.6%。到今年年底，S&P 500下跌了超过8%——尽管其中至少有一部分可能再现了互联网泡沫破裂之初的情形。

A happier scenario¹⁸ for investors—and citizens more broadly—would see a clear victor emerging on election day. And it may be that investors have begun to think this has become more likely than they did mere¹⁹ days ago. Though the news that Mr Trump had been diagnosed with covid-19 sent VIX futures higher on October 2nd, by the 7th futures maturing in November, December and January had dropped below the level they had reached after the first presidential debate on September 29th. That might be thanks to a flurry of polls putting Joe Biden, Mr Trump's Democratic challenger, even further ahead. As the campaign moves into the home straight, investors are betting on less, rather than more, chaos.

更能让投资者和广大公民感到欣慰的结果是，获胜者在选举日当天就被选出。或许投资者们已经感觉到了较之前几天这种可能性的加大。虽然特朗普被诊断为新冠的消息在10月2日推高了VIX期货，但到11月、12月和1月到期的7个期货价格已经低于9月29日第一次总统辩论之后的水平，这大概得益于一项结果为“特朗普的民主党竞争者乔·拜登领先”的民调。随着大选接近尾声，投资者的押注混乱并没有愈演愈烈，相反在逐渐平息。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

3 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

4 inauguration   

n.开幕、就职典礼

参考例句：

• The inauguration of a President of the United States takes place on January 20.美国总统的就职典礼于一月二十日举行。
• Three celebrated tenors sang at the president's inauguration.3位著名的男高音歌手在总统就职仪式上演唱。

5 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

6 opt   

vi.选择，决定做某事

参考例句：

• They opt for more holiday instead of more pay.他们选择了延长假期而不是增加工资。
• Will individual schools be given the right to opt out of the local school authority?各个学校可能有权选择退出地方教育局吗？

7 ballots   

n.投票表决( ballot的名词复数 )；选举；选票；投票总数v.（使）投票表决( ballot的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They're counting the ballots. 他们正在计算选票。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The news of rigged ballots has rubbed off much of the shine of their election victory. 他们操纵选票的消息使他们在选举中获得的胜利大为减色。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

9 slew   

v.（使）旋转；n.大量，许多

参考例句：

• He slewed the car against the side of the building.他的车滑到了大楼的一侧，抵住了。
• They dealt with a slew of other issues.他们处理了大量的其他问题。

10 lawsuits   

n.诉讼( lawsuit的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Lawsuits involving property rights and farming and grazing rights increased markedly. 涉及财产权，耕作与放牧权的诉讼案件显著地增加。 来自辞典例句
• I've lost and won more lawsuits than any man in England. 全英国的人算我官司打得最多，赢的也多，输的也多。 来自辞典例句

11 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

12 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

14 postal   

adj.邮政的，邮局的

参考例句：

• A postal network now covers the whole country.邮路遍及全国。
• Remember to use postal code.勿忘使用邮政编码。

15 reluctance   

n.厌恶，讨厌，勉强，不情愿

参考例句：

• The police released Andrew with reluctance.警方勉强把安德鲁放走了。
• He showed the greatest reluctance to make a reply.他表示很不愿意答复。

16 gore   

n.凝血，血污；v.（动物）用角撞伤，用牙刺破；缝以补裆；顶

参考例句：

• The fox lay dying in a pool of gore.狐狸倒在血泊中奄奄一息。
• Carruthers had been gored by a rhinoceros.卡拉瑟斯被犀牛顶伤了。

17 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

18 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

19 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。