2022年经济学人 一场太过冒险的赌博（1）

Business

商业

Schumpeter -- A gamble too far

熊彼特——一场太过冒险的赌博

Europe's commodities traders have made a mistake by dealing¹ with Vladimir Putin's regime

欧洲大宗商品交易商犯了一个错误：与弗拉基米尔·普京的政权打交道

In Russia's frozen north is a megaproject that has long been seen as an answer to President Vladimir Putin's prayers.

在俄罗斯寒冷的北方，有一个大型项目长期以来一直被视为对总统弗拉基米尔·普京的拥簇者的回应。

By the mid-2020s the Vostok oilfield is expected to supply about 15% of Russia's crude exports.

到2020年代中期，Vostok油田预计将供应俄罗斯约15%的原油出口。

By that time Rosneft, the Russian oil giant leading the effort, plans to ship Vostok oil via the Northern Sea Route, a shortcut² through the Arctic to Asia.

到那时，领导这项工程的俄罗斯石油巨头Rosneft计划通过北海航线运送Vostok的石油，北海航线是一条穿过北极通往亚洲的捷径。

The route will enable Russia to bypass the West geopolitically as well as geographically³, allowing oil to travel along waters beyond the control of the American navy and out of reach of Western sanctions.

这条路线能够使俄罗斯在地缘政治方面和地理上绕过西方，使石油可以沿着美国海军控制范围之外的水域运输，也不受西方制裁的影响。

Besides Rosneft, its backers include two mostly European oil and gas traders, Trafigura and Vitol.

除了Rosneft，其支持者主要还包括两家来自欧洲的石油和天然气交易商Trafigura和Vitol。

For years they have competed fiercely to be among the biggest buyers of Russian crude.

多年来，它们一直竞争激烈，以求成为俄罗斯原油的最大买家之一。

These firms are part of a group of commodities traders, including Glencore and Gunvor, that often thrive amid geopolitical turmoil⁴.

这些公司隶属于一些大宗商品交易商，其中包括Glencore和Gunvor，这些交易商经常在地缘政治动荡中蓬勃发展。

They are clear-eyed realists who in the past have struck deals with autocrats⁵ to gain access to cheap raw materials.

他们是目光敏锐的现实主义者，过去曾与独裁者达成协议以获得廉价的原材料。

In recent years some have doubled down on Russia, doing business with the figures who surround Mr Putin, such as Rosneft's boss, Igor Sechin, and winning big oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts (piped gas is the domain⁶ of Gazprom, a state monopoly).

近年来，一些交易商对俄罗斯加倍下注，与普京身边的人物做生意，比如Rosneft的老板伊戈尔·谢钦，并赢得了石油和液化天然气的大合同(管道天然气是国营垄断企业Gazprom的地盘)。

The arrangement served both sides well.

这种安排对双方都有好处。

The traders invested in Russia and secured more supply from the world's third-biggest oil-producing country and biggest natural-gas exporter.

这些交易商在俄罗斯投资，并从这个世界第三大产油国和最大的天然气出口国那里获得更多供应。

Higher energy prices bolstered⁷ Russia's hard-currency reserves.

能源价格上涨增强了俄罗斯的硬通货储备。

But if they believed Mr Putin's goal was a modern economy that he would not jeopardise by invading Ukraine, they were wrong.

但是，如果他们相信普京的目标是建立一个不受入侵乌克兰危及的现代化经济，那他们就错了。

In fact, oil revenues have financed an ever more autocratic and belligerent⁸ regime.

事实上，石油收益资助了一个越来越专制和好战的政权。

After the West moved to strengthen penalties on Russia's financial system on February 26th, they faced the consequences of their bet.

在2月26日西方采取行动加强对俄罗斯金融体系的制裁后，他们面临着他们所下赌注的后果。

As one executive put it two days later, everything in the Russian oil business was "frozen": banks, ports, ships and suppliers.

正如两天后一位高管所说，俄罗斯石油行业的一切都被“冻结”了：银行、港口、船舶和供应商。

Auctions⁹ of Russian crude found no buyers.

俄罗斯原油拍卖遇冷。

Prices of oil soared on global markets but so did the discounts on Russian Urals crude relative to international benchmarks.

全球市场上的油价飙升，不过俄罗斯Urals原油相对于国际基准价格的折扣也大幅上升。

Amid fear of sanctions, Russian cargoes¹⁰ became kryptonite.

由于担心受到制裁，俄罗斯的货物成了克星。

Some traders initially¹¹ said the paralysis¹² would be short-lived.

一些交易商最初表示，这种瘫痪是暂时的。

After all, oil and gas producers were spared sanctions in order to keep Russian energy flowing to the West.

毕竟，为了让俄罗斯的能源继续流向西方，石油和天然气生产商得以免于制裁。

One executive described the biggest risk as "overzealous bank compliance¹³ officers" causing more damage to Russia's oil market than the architects of sanctions intended.

一位高管称，最大的风险是“过分尽职的银行合规官员”对俄罗斯石油市场造成的损害比制裁措施的制定者想要造成的损害更大。

Yet the traders may have been in denial.

交易商们可能仍拒绝接受这一现实。

The speed with which two European supermajors, BP and Shell, pledged to dump their Russian assets suggested that political and social pressure to withdraw from Russia was mounting in the wake of the invasion.

英国石油和壳牌这两家欧洲石油巨头承诺出售其俄罗斯资产的速度之快表明，随着入侵开始，要求交易商们撤出俄罗斯的政治和社会压力正在增加。

On March 1st Glencore said it was reassessing its equity¹⁴ stakes in EN+, an Anglo-Russian aluminium¹⁵ producer, and Rosneft.

3月1日，Glencore表示，它正在重新评估其在EN+（一家英俄合营的铝生产商）和Rosneft的股权。

A day later Trafigura said it was reviewing its investment in Vostok Oil as it unconditionally¹⁶ condemned¹⁷ the war.

一天后，Trafigura表示，由于其无条件地谴责这场战争，它正在评估其对Vostok石油的投资。

Usually the trading houses thrive in times of conflict by keeping their heads down and capitalising on volatility¹⁸.

通常情况下，在冲突时期，贸易公司会保持低调，并利用市场波动获利。

Not this time.

这一次不行了。

Russia's war on Ukraine suggests their gamble on Mr Putin may have been a throw of the dice¹⁹ too far.

俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争表明，他们押在普京身上的赌注可能是孤注一掷。

1 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

2 shortcut   

n.近路，捷径

参考例句：

• He was always looking for a shortcut to fame and fortune.他总是在找成名发财的捷径。
• If you take the shortcut,it will be two li closer.走抄道去要近2里路。

3 geographically   

adv.地理学上，在地理上，地理方面

参考例句：

• Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe. 从地理位置上讲，英国处于欧洲边缘。 来自辞典例句
• All these events, however geographically remote, urgently affected Western financial centers. 所有这些事件，无论发生在地理上如何遥远的地方，都对西方金融中心产生紧迫的影响。 来自名作英译部分

4 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

5 autocrats   

n.独裁统治者( autocrat的名词复数 )；独断专行的人

参考例句：

• Still, the widespread pessimism doesn't explain the relatively high scores enjoyed by the autocrats. 不过，普遍的悲观情绪并没有解释为何独裁者得到相对较高的分数。 来自互联网

6 domain   

n.(活动等)领域，范围；领地，势力范围

参考例句：

• This information should be in the public domain.这一消息应该为公众所知。
• This question comes into the domain of philosophy.这一问题属于哲学范畴。

7 bolstered   

v.支持( bolster的过去式和过去分词 )；支撑；给予必要的支持；援助

参考例句：

• He bolstered his plea with new evidence. 他举出新的证据来支持他的抗辩。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The data must be bolstered by inferences and indirect estimates of varying degrees of reliability. 这些资料必须借助于推理及可靠程度不同的间接估计。 来自辞典例句

8 belligerent   

adj.好战的，挑起战争的；n.交战国，交战者

参考例句：

• He had a belligerent aspect.他有种好斗的神色。
• Our government has forbidden exporting the petroleum to the belligerent countries.我们政府已经禁止向交战国输出石油。

9 auctions   

n.拍卖，拍卖方式( auction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They picked up most of the furniture at auctions in country towns. 他们大部分的家具都是在乡村镇上的拍卖处买的。 来自辞典例句
• Our dealers didn't want these cars, so we had to dump them at auctions. 我们的承销商都不要这些车子，因此我们只好贱价拍卖。 来自辞典例句

10 cargoes   

n.（船或飞机装载的）货物( cargo的名词复数 )；大量，重负

参考例句：

• This ship embarked cargoes. 这艘船装载货物。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The crew lashed cargoes of timber down. 全体船员将木材绑牢。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

12 paralysis   

n.麻痹(症)；瘫痪(症)

参考例句：

• The paralysis affects his right leg and he can only walk with difficulty.他右腿瘫痪步履维艰。
• The paralysis affects his right leg and he can only walk with difficulty.他右腿瘫痪步履维艰。

13 compliance   

n.顺从；服从；附和；屈从

参考例句：

• I was surprised by his compliance with these terms.我对他竟然依从了这些条件而感到吃惊。
• She gave up the idea in compliance with his desire.她顺从他的愿望而放弃自己的主意。

14 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

15 aluminium   

n.铝 (=aluminum)

参考例句：

• Aluminium looks heavy but actually it is very light.铝看起来很重，实际上却很轻。
• If necessary, we can use aluminium instead of steel.如果必要，我们可用铝代钢。

16 unconditionally   

adv.无条件地

参考例句：

• All foreign troops must be withdrawn immediately and unconditionally. 所有外国军队必须立即无条件地撤出。
• It makes things very awkward to have your girls going back unconditionally just now! 你们现在是无条件上工，真糟糕！ 来自子夜部分

17 condemned   

adj. 被责难的, 被宣告有罪的 动词condemn的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He condemned the hypocrisy of those politicians who do one thing and say another. 他谴责了那些说一套做一套的政客的虚伪。
• The policy has been condemned as a regressive step. 这项政策被认为是一种倒退而受到谴责。

18 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

19 dice   

n.骰子；vt.把（食物）切成小方块，冒险

参考例句：

• They were playing dice.他们在玩掷骰子游戏。
• A dice is a cube.骰子是立方体。