2022年经济学人 一场太过冒险的赌博（2）

In theory, excluding Russian oil and gas from sanctions should enable the trading houses to continue their day-to-day operations.

理论上讲，将俄罗斯石油和天然气排除在制裁之外，应该能让这些贸易公司继续日常的运营。

In practice, it does not because energy trading is as much about the flow of money as of molecules¹.

而在实践中，并不是这样的，因为能源交易既是分子的流动，也是金钱的流动。

Cargoes² are financed by banks.

货款由银行提供。

They require letters of credit guaranteeing payment.

银行要求提供信用证书作为付款保证。

They involve frequent messaging between banks working for the buyers and sellers.

这其中涉及为买卖双方服务的银行之间频繁的信息传递。

Until March 1st, when names were released of the seven Russian lenders potentially blocked from the SWIFT interbank-communications system, many energy-related transactions in Russia were halted, traders said, owing to the counterparty risk.

交易商表示，直到3月1日，7家可能被SWIFT银行间通信系统屏蔽的俄罗斯银行的名字公布，俄罗斯的许多能源相关交易都因交易对手风险而暂停。

Moreover, fears surfaced that as Russia's aggression³ on Ukraine escalates⁴, sanctions will be strengthened.

此外，人们担心，随着俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略升级，制裁将会加强。

“The tit has to be reasonably in line with the tat,” says Jean-Francois Lambert, a commodities consultant⁵.

“针锋需合理相对，”大宗商品咨询师让-弗朗索瓦·兰伯特如是说。

The problem is exacerbated⁶ by the length of time cargoes of oil and LNG spend at sea.

石油和液化天然气在海上停留的时间越长，问题就越严重。

By the time they reach port, sanctions on Russian energy may be in place.

当它们抵达港口时，对俄罗斯能源的制裁可能已经生效。

“The biggest grey area is that no one knows what comes next,” says Daniel Martin, who specialises in shipping⁷ rules at HFW, a law firm.

“最大的不确定是没有人知道接下来会发生什么，”在HFW律师事务所专门研究航运规则的丹尼尔·马丁说。

Logistical chaos⁸ compounds the uncertainty⁹.

后勤的混乱加剧了这种不确定性。

Oil-tanker rates on the Black Sea adjacent to Russia and Ukraine have surged as fighting has intensified¹⁰.

随着战事升级，与俄罗斯和乌克兰相邻的黑海的油轮运价飙升。

As well as business risks, the trading firms face reputational ones.

除了商业风险，贸易公司还面临着声誉风险。

This is exacerbated by long-standing links with firms and individuals at the heart of the regime.

与处于政权核心的公司及个人的长期联系加剧了这种情况。

In “The World for Sale”, a recent book, the authors argue that the merchants have probably been more engaged with Mr Putin's autocracy¹¹ than anyone in the world of international business.

在最近出版的一本书《待售的世界》中，作者们认为，商人可能比国际商界的任何人都更多地参与到了普京的独裁统治中。

Despite a stand-off between Russia and the West, they made vast loans to Rosneft in exchange for oil-supply deals.

尽管俄罗斯与西方正进行对峙，他们还是向Rosneft提供了巨额贷款，以换取石油供应交易。

Two years after Russia seized Crimea in 2014, Glencore co-invested $11bn to buy part of the Russian government's stake in Rosneft (it has since sold almost all of it).

在俄罗斯于2014年占领克里米亚两年之后，Glencore联合投资110亿美元购买了俄罗斯政府在Rosneft的部分股份（后来该公司几乎将这些股份全部出售）。

After Trafigura and Vitol invested in Vostok, they received supply deals from Rosneft.

Trafigura和Vitol在投资了Vostok之后，获得了Rosneft的供应协议。

Mark Rossano, CEO of C6 Capital Holdings, a consultancy, believes that both the oligarchs and the traders were caught out by the economic reprisals¹² that the war has unleashed¹³.

咨询公司C6 Capital Holdings的首席执行官马克·罗萨诺认为，无论是政治寡头还是交易商，都在战争引发的经济报复中陷入困境。

They will survive.

他们会挺过去的。

Even with business in Russia in free fall, crisis breeds opportunity.

虽然在俄罗斯的商业处于自由落体式下跌之中，但危机也孕育着机遇。

As Western countries such as America release strategic reserves of crude to stop the price of oil soaring, they are queuing up for cargoes.

当美国等西方国家为阻止油价飙升而释放战略原油储备时，他们正在排队购买石油。

If Western sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil are lifted so that it can offset¹⁴ a potential loss of Russian crude, they have the contacts to move the stuff.

如果西方解除对伊朗石油的出售制裁，以抵消可能损失的俄罗斯原油，他们也有社会关系来转移这些东西。

But these are dangerous times.

但现在是危险时期。

The West's reaction to Mr Putin's war is visceral.

西方对普京的战争的反应是发自肺腑的。

It is one thing to be considered a non-aligned merchant providing the world with what it needs.

被当作是为世界提供所需的不结盟商人是一回事。

It is another to be seen as a mercenary.

被视为雇佣兵则是另外一回事。

1 molecules   

分子( molecule的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The structure of molecules can be seen under an electron microscope. 分子的结构可在电子显微镜下观察到。
• Inside the reactor the large molecules are cracked into smaller molecules. 在反应堆里，大分子裂变为小分子。

2 cargoes   

n.（船或飞机装载的）货物( cargo的名词复数 )；大量，重负

参考例句：

• This ship embarked cargoes. 这艘船装载货物。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The crew lashed cargoes of timber down. 全体船员将木材绑牢。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

4 escalates   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的第三人称单数 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• As the challenge escalates, the need for teamwork elevates. 面临的挑战越大，越需要团队协同合作。 来自互联网
• I cannot understand why a minor disagreement escalates into a fist-fight. 我真不明白为什么一点意见不合就变成了拳头相见。 来自互联网

5 consultant   

n.顾问；会诊医师，专科医生

参考例句：

• He is a consultant on law affairs to the mayor.他是市长的一个法律顾问。
• Originally,Gar had agreed to come up as a consultant.原来，加尔只答应来充当我们的顾问。

6 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

8 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

9 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

10 intensified   

v.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Violence intensified during the night. 在夜间暴力活动加剧了。
• The drought has intensified. 旱情加剧了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 autocracy   

n.独裁政治，独裁政府

参考例句：

• The revolution caused the overthrow of the autocracy.这场革命导致了独裁政体的结束。
• Many poor countries are abandoning autocracy.很多贫穷国家都在放弃独裁统治。

12 reprisals   

n.报复（行为）( reprisal的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They did not want to give evidence for fear of reprisals. 他们因为害怕报复而不想作证。
• They took bloody reprisals against the leaders. 他们对领导进行了血腥的报复。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 unleashed   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The government's proposals unleashed a storm of protest in the press. 政府的提案引发了新闻界的抗议浪潮。
• The full force of his rage was unleashed against me. 他把所有的怒气都发泄在我身上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。