2022年经济学人 人人都想买卖国债（1）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Buttonwood: Let them trade bonds

梧桐树：让他们交易债券

The world’s most important financial market is not fit for purpose

世界上最重要的金融市场已经不适合搞金融了

Everyone wants to trade Treasuries¹.

人人都想买卖国债。

Big banks hold them for liquidity² management, pension funds own them for long-term yields, hedge funds use them to bet on the economy, individuals’ savings³ are stored in them and central banks use them to manage foreign-exchange reserves.

大银行持有国债是为了流动性管理，养老基金是为了获得长期收益，对冲基金是为了押注经济，个人是为了把钱存进去，央行是为了管理外汇储备。

The market for Treasuries, most of the time, is deep and liquid.

在大多数情况下，国债市场都很活跃，且具有流动性。

Some $640bn of government bonds change hands each day, at prices that become the benchmark risk-free rate by which all financial instruments are valued and lending rates set.

每天约有6400亿美元的政府债券易手，其价格成为所有金融工具估值和贷款利率设定的基准无风险利率。

So why do they sometimes not change hands?

那么，为什么它们有时不易手呢？

Several times in the recent past the market has broken down.

在最近一段时间，该市场曾数次出现崩盘。

In 2014 a “flash rally” led to wild swings in prices, for no clear reason.

2014年，一场“闪电拉升”导致价格剧烈波动，原因不明。

In 2019 rates spiked⁵ in the “repo” market, in which Treasuries can be swapped⁶ for cash overnight.

2019年，“回购”市场利率飙升，在这个市场上，美国国债可以在一夜之间兑换成现金。

In March 2020 extreme illiquidity led yields to spike⁴, even though in times of panic they usually fall as investors⁷ rush to safe assets.

2020年3月，极度缺乏流动性导致收益率飙升，尽管在恐慌时期，随着投资者争相购买安全资产，收益率通常会下跌。

Now issues are cropping up again: measures of volatility⁸ have jumped to levels last seen in 2020 and bid-ask spreads are widening.

现在，问题又出现了：波动性指标已跃升至2020年的水平，买卖价差正在扩大。

The problem stems from the fact that the Treasury⁹ market has doubled in size over the past decade, even as its infrastructure¹⁰ has shrunk.

问题的源头在于，即使美国国债市场的基础设施有所减少，其规模还是在过去10年间扩大了一倍。

Trading is carried out by primary dealers¹¹, designated institutions which are mostly big banks—and regulatory requirements now constrain¹² them.

交易是由一级交易商进行的，这些指定机构大多是大型银行--监管要求现在对它们进行了限制。

The leverage¹³ ratio, which limits the value of assets banks can hold relative to their capital, does not care whether the asset is super-safe Treasuries or subprime mortgage debt.

银行相对于其资本可以持有的资产价值受杠杆率限制，而它并不关心资产是超级安全的国债还是次级抵押贷款债务。

Thus when a client calls asking to sell a bond, banks must find a client who wants to buy it, rather than holding it as inventory¹⁴ for when another client calls.

因此，当客户打电话要求出售债券时，银行必须找到想要购买债券的客户，而不是将其作为库存，以备另一客户来电时使用。

In times of stress, this system gets overwhelmed.

在紧张时期，这个系统会不堪重负。

1 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

2 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

3 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

4 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

5 spiked   

adj.有穗的；成锥形的；有尖顶的

参考例句：

• The editor spiked the story. 编辑删去了这篇报道。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They wondered whether their drinks had been spiked. 他们有些疑惑自己的饮料里是否被偷偷搀了烈性酒。 来自辞典例句

6 swapped   

交换（工作）( swap的过去式和过去分词 )； 用…替换，把…换成，掉换（过来）

参考例句：

• I liked her coat and she liked mine, so we swapped. 我喜欢她的外套，她喜欢我的外套，于是我们就交换了。
• At half-time the manager swapped some of the players around. 经理在半场时把几名队员换下了场。

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

9 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

10 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

11 dealers   

n.商人( dealer的名词复数 )；贩毒者；毒品贩子；发牌者

参考例句：

• There was fast bidding between private collectors and dealers. 私人收藏家和交易商急速竞相喊价。
• The police were corrupt and were operating in collusion with the drug dealers. 警察腐败，与那伙毒品贩子内外勾结。

12 constrain   

vt.限制，约束；克制，抑制

参考例句：

• She tried to constrain herself from a cough in class.上课时她竭力忍住不咳嗽。
• The study will examine the factors which constrain local economic growth.这项研究将考查抑制当地经济发展的因素。

13 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

14 inventory   

n.详细目录，存货清单

参考例句：

• Some stores inventory their stock once a week.有些商店每周清点存货一次。
• We will need to call on our supplier to get more inventory.我们必须请供应商送来更多存货。