2022年经济学人 人人都想买卖国债（2）

The fixes fall into three buckets: let the banks trade more bonds with investors¹, let investors trade more bonds with each other, or let investors trade or swap² more bonds with the Federal Reserve.

有三个解决方案：一，让银行与投资者交易更多债券；二，让投资者彼此交易更多债券；三，让投资者与美联储交易或互换更多债券。

Start with letting the banks do more.

首先来看第一个方案。

The solution would be to exempt³ Treasuries⁴ and other safe assets, like bank reserves, from inclusion in leverage⁵ ratios.

这个方案要免除美国国债和其他安全资产，如银行准备金，使其不被纳入杠杆率。

The Fed and other bank regulators did this for a year from March 2020 to help ease market chaos⁶.

美联储和其他银行监管机构自2020年3月开始的一年内采用了这个方案，以帮助缓解市场混乱。

The logic⁷ behind the move was sound enough.

此举背后的逻辑是足够合理的。

Treasuries are not risky⁸ assets, likely to default, and so they do not require much capital to be held against them.

国债不是风险资产，也不容易违约，因此不需要持有太多资本来应对风险。

Still, the leverage ratio is appealing because it is simple to administer and cannot be gamed.

尽管如此，杠杆率仍然很有吸引力，因为它易于管理，且不能被操纵。

And with Democratic bank regulators in charge, who do not want to appear to be undoing⁹ financial regulation, the idea is a non-starter.

而且在民主党银行监管机构掌权的情况下，这个想法是不可能的，因为他们不想让自己看起来像是在破坏金融监管。

How about letting investors deal more with one another?

那第二个方案呢？

Portfolio¹⁰ managers at PIMCO, a large bond investment firm, have proposed that investors should trade on a platform where asset managers, dealers¹¹ and non-bank liquidity¹² providers can trade on a “level playing field, with equal access to information”, akin¹³ to how stocks are traded.

大型债券投资公司太平洋投资管理公司的投资组合经理提议，投资者进行交易的平台应该能够让资产管理公司、交易商和非银行流动性提供者在“公平竞争的环境下，平等地获得信息”，类似于股票的交易方式。

This could be good, if it is actually possible.

这是个好方案，前提是这真的可行。

Matching buyers and sellers of Treasuries is harder than matching buyers and sellers of stocks.

匹配国债的买家和卖家比匹配股票的买家和卖家更难。

All shares in Microsoft are the same; there are dozens of Treasuries that have roughly five years to maturity¹⁴.

微软的所有股票都是一样的；还有几十只美国国债大约还有五年就到期了。

A final fix would be to let investors do more with the Fed.

最后一个方案是让投资者与美联储交易或互换更多债券。

Last year the central bank created a standing¹⁵ repo facility, which allows a Treasury¹⁶ to be swapped¹⁷ overnight for cash.

去年，美联储创立了一项常设回购工具，允许人们隔夜将美国国债兑换为现金。

But the facility is only for primary dealers, which do not always pass on the liquidity.

但这项工具只供一级交易商使用，它们并不总是释放流动性。

Opening it to more participants would address this problem.

向更多的参与者开放这项工具将能解决这个问题。

It would also expose the Fed to a range of riskier¹⁸ counterparties—but that could be mitigated¹⁹ by requiring firms to swap a greater value in Treasuries than the central bank gives out in cash.

这也会让美联储面临一系列风险更高的交易对手--但这可以通过要求企业交换比央行发放的现金价值更高的国债来缓解。

The problem is not a shortage of plausible²⁰ reforms.

问题并不在于缺乏貌似合理的改革。

It is that none of them have been implemented²¹.

而是在于这些改革都没有得到实施。

The heady bull market has collided with the reality of high inflation and much higher interest rates.

令人兴奋的牛市与高通胀和更高利率的现实发生了冲突。

Financial markets have already entered a new phase in which volatility²², stress and fear have returned.

金融市场已经进入了一个新阶段，波动、压力和恐惧再次出现了。

Any grand plans to overhaul²³ the Treasury market cannot be implemented on the fly, in the midst of a burgeoning²⁴ crisis.

任何全面改革国债市场的宏伟计划都不可能在危机快速蔓延的情况下迅速实施。

If the Treasury market seizes up again—as the market for British government bonds did after ministers announced a package of unfunded tax cuts on September 23rd—the task of fixing it will fall on the Fed and its bond-buying schemes.

如果美国国债市场再次失灵--就像英国政府债券市场在9月23日部长们宣布一揽子无资金支持的减税计划后那样--修复它的任务将落在美联储及其债券购买计划的身上。

Relaunching asset purchases at the same time as raising rates to combat inflation would be very uncomfortable.

在提高利率以对抗通胀的同时重新启动资产购买，会让人非常不舒服。

Since regulators failed to fix the Treasury market when they had the chance, they may end up with little choice.

由于监管机构在有机会的时候没能修复美国国债市场，他们最终可能别无选择。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 swap   

n.交换；vt.交换，用...作交易

参考例句：

• I will swap you my bicycle for your radio.我想拿我的自行车换你的收音机。
• This comic was a swap that I got from Nick.这本漫画书是我从尼克那里换来的。

3 exempt   

adj.免除的；v.使免除；n.免税者，被免除义务者

参考例句：

• These goods are exempt from customs duties.这些货物免征关税。
• He is exempt from punishment about this thing.关于此事对他已免于处分。

4 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

5 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

6 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

7 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

8 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

9 undoing   

n.毁灭的原因，祸根；破坏，毁灭

参考例句：

• That one mistake was his undoing. 他一失足即成千古恨。
• This hard attitude may have led to his undoing. 可能就是这种强硬的态度导致了他的垮台。

10 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

11 dealers   

n.商人( dealer的名词复数 )；贩毒者；毒品贩子；发牌者

参考例句：

• There was fast bidding between private collectors and dealers. 私人收藏家和交易商急速竞相喊价。
• The police were corrupt and were operating in collusion with the drug dealers. 警察腐败，与那伙毒品贩子内外勾结。

12 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

13 akin   

adj.同族的，类似的

参考例句：

• She painted flowers and birds pictures akin to those of earlier feminine painters.她画一些同早期女画家类似的花鸟画。
• Listening to his life story is akin to reading a good adventure novel.听他的人生故事犹如阅读一本精彩的冒险小说。

14 maturity   

n.成熟；完成；(支票、债券等)到期

参考例句：

• These plants ought to reach maturity after five years.这些植物五年后就该长成了。
• This is the period at which the body attains maturity.这是身体发育成熟的时期。

15 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

16 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

17 swapped   

交换（工作）( swap的过去式和过去分词 )； 用…替换，把…换成，掉换（过来）

参考例句：

• I liked her coat and she liked mine, so we swapped. 我喜欢她的外套，她喜欢我的外套，于是我们就交换了。
• At half-time the manager swapped some of the players around. 经理在半场时把几名队员换下了场。

18 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

19 mitigated   

v.减轻，缓和( mitigate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The cost of getting there is mitigated by Sydney's offer of a subsidy. 由于悉尼提供补助金，所以到那里的花费就减少了。 来自辞典例句
• The living conditions were slightly mitigated. 居住条件稍有缓解。 来自辞典例句

20 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

21 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

22 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

23 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

24 burgeoning   

adj.迅速成长的，迅速发展的v.发芽，抽枝( burgeon的现在分词 )；迅速发展；发（芽），抽（枝）

参考例句：

• Our company's business is burgeoning now. 我们公司的业务现在发展很迅速。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• These efforts were insufficient to contain the burgeoning crisis. 这些努力不足以抑制迅速扩散的危机。 来自辞典例句