亚洲世纪的战争与和平 全球重心东移

 　　In his timely new book, Easternisation, Gideon Rachman articulates a clear and persuasive¹ idea: that recent western exertions² in the Middle East, the crises that grab the headlines and consume the energies of world leaders, will be seen in the arc of history as something of a sideshow, a secondary plotline that will ultimately be obscured by the rise of Asia, with its humming factories, inexhaustible innovation and competitive spirit.

　　吉迪恩?拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)在他这本很及时的新书《东方化》(Easternisation)中，阐述了一个明确而具说服力的观点：西方近年在中东的折腾，一系列占据新闻头条和消耗着世界领导人精力的危机，在历史的弧线上将被视为一段插曲、一个次要情节，最终将在亚洲崛起的大背景下黯然失色；近年亚洲的特征是工厂轰鸣、创新不断和竞争精神高涨。

　　In his quest to capture this dramatic reorientation of global power — one that is now fully³ under way — Rachman, the FT’s chief foreign affairs commentator⁴, takes us seamlessly from one Asian capital to the next, and across the world to Washington and London. Along the way, he introduces readers to the key leaders, thinkers and innovators in this overarching drama, weaving their stories into an elaborate, vivid story. We learn from an influential⁵ Chinese strategic thinker contemplating⁶ Beijing’s global priorities; a Japanese academic who specialises in Asia’s complex history; a wizened⁷ Singaporean financier with decades of market experience; an Indian manufacturer striving to compete against south-east Asian competitors; and many others who bring keen insights and rich detail to Rachman’s account.

　　在他捕捉全球实力戏剧化转移（目前在全方位展开）的探索中，身为英国《金融时报》首席外交事务评论员的拉赫曼，丝丝入扣地带领我们从一个亚洲首都到另一个，并跨越半个地球到达华盛顿和伦敦。一路上，他向读者介绍了这一主要历史剧情中的关键领导人、思想家和创新者，将他们的故事交织成一场复杂、生动的剧情。我们读到了很多人的高见，他们包括：一位正在思考北京方面全球战略重点的有影响力的中国战略思想家、一位专门研究亚洲错综复杂历史的日本学者、一位拥有数十年市场经验、久经风霜的新加坡金融家、一位努力与东南亚对手展开竞争的印度制造商，这些人和其他许多人的敏锐洞见和丰富细节在拉赫曼的笔下栩栩如生。

　　They will also learn from Rachman himself, who brings an impressionistic narrative⁸ into sharp focus with his own analysis. His deft⁹ use of historical allusion¹⁰ matches his fluency¹¹ in the contemporary policy debates that reverberate¹² around Asian capitals, and he engages with the ideas of Henry Kissinger, Joseph Nye and other prominent writers on the Asian Century about how to measure the region’s rapid rise.

　　他们也能从拉赫曼本人学到东西，他用自己的分析给一种印象派的叙述带来一个清晰焦点。他对历史典故的灵巧使用，与他对亚洲各国首都当前展开的政策辩论的娴熟描述相得益彰。他还与亨利?基辛格(Henry Kissinger)、约瑟夫?奈(Joseph Nye)等提到亚洲世纪的著名作者，就如何衡量该地区的快速崛起进行了思想的碰撞。

　　Written largely before the panic-inducing rise of Donald Trump¹³, the book nevertheless anticipates some of the domestic difficulties that plague America’s quest to respond to these shifting sands. Rachman discusses growing concerns over trade, deepening anxieties about a more assertive¹⁴ and occasionally provocative¹⁵ China, as well as a foreign policy agenda dominated by Russia and the Middle East.

　　这本书大部分写在唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)令人惊恐地异军突起之前，尽管如此，该书仍预见了美国的一些国内困难，这些困难困扰着美国应对大格局变化的努力。拉赫曼探讨了美国人对自由贸易越来越担忧；对更为强势且偶尔展露挑衅意味的中国不断加深的焦虑；以及被俄罗斯和中东主导的外交政策议程。

　　This excellent book has some minor¹⁶ shortcomings. The author focuses perhaps inordinately¹⁷ on the notion of American decline, a worry admittedly shared by many in Asia who are fearful that China will fill the potential power vacuum. Like many around the world, Rachman seems to question whether the US has the strength or stomach to grapple with the coming challenges.

　　这本优秀的著作有一些小缺点。作者也许格外关注了美国衰落的观点；应该承认，亚洲许多人都有这一担忧，他们惧怕中国会填补潜在的实力真空。就像世界各地很多人一样，拉赫曼似乎在质疑美国是否有实力或意愿来迎接扑面而来的挑战。

　　History would suggest, however, that we should be careful not to exaggerate American difficulties, and resist the tendency to discount the sometimes hidden qualities of American power, including its national resilience, innovation, and capacity for reinvention, that have animated¹⁸ the last half-century.

　　然而历史似乎表明，我们应当小心，不要夸大美国的困难，也不要低估美国实力中有时不显山露水的质素，包括国家抗压能力、创新力，以及再造能力，正是这些特点使美国在过去半个世纪生机勃勃。

　　Concerns over American decline have surfaced in every decade of the postwar era, but they have often been more reflections of international anxieties than clear-eyed assessments¹⁹ of the American strategic situation.

　　有关美国衰落的担忧在战后差不多每10年都会浮现一次，但它们往往在更大程度上反映了国际间的焦虑，而不是对美国战略形势的思路清晰的评估。

　　Policymakers and journalists alike are fond of coining new phrases and concepts to help frame emerging developments on the global stage, and the book’s title is perhaps an example of rhetorical over-reach. I suspect this change in the global tides may be overstated, in part because easternisation is not a coherent or competing ideology²⁰. As the book itself reveals, what is happening in countries from Japan and China to India is not an identical but rather a highly individualised developmental process — and one that in many places hews²¹ to a western template for modernity, as the rise of Asian democracy, free trade and rule of law attests²².

　　政策制定者们和新闻从业人员一样，酷爱炮制新词和新概念，以帮助框定全球舞台上风起云涌的新动态，本书的标题可能就是一个言过其实的例子。我怀疑这种全球潮流的改变可能被夸大了，部分是因为东方化并不是一个自成一体或处于对立面的意识形态。正如本书所展示的那样，从日本、中国到印度，各国所走的道路并不相同，而都是一个高度个性化的发展过程，而且很多国家在这方面借鉴西方的现代化模板，正如亚洲民主制度、自由贸易和法治的崛起所证明的那样。

　　From this perspective, easternisation is perhaps best understood as a gradual shift to the east rather than an orientating²³ narrative emerging from the east, and Rachman is on stronger ground when he describes easternisation as a geographic²⁴ concept — a global movement to the place where power is playing out and where history will reside.

　　从这个视角看，东方化也许最好被理解为向东方逐渐转移，而非从东方兴起一种方向性的叙述；拉赫曼在从地理概念上描绘东方化（一种全球性的转移，目的地是大国实力博弈，结果将会载入史册的地方）时更站得住脚。

　　Rachman’s previous work, Zero-Sum World, helps set the stage for his current book, and many of the themes from the former volume take fuller shape in the latter. Rachman’s flair²⁵ for rich anecdotes²⁶, clever writing, strong analysis and original insight are impressive.

　　拉赫曼此前的著作《零和世界》帮助他为这本新书搭建了舞台，许多来自前一本书的主题，在新书中有了更丰满的形态。拉赫曼在丰富轶事、流畅文笔、犀利分析和独到洞察力方面的水平令人折服。

　　Even with its modest rhetorical embellishments, Easternisation hits its mark, with a wide range of arguments and prognostications that scholars and policymakers must contemplate²⁷ as we consider the coming Asian century.

　　即便存在一些次要的措辞瑕疵，《东方化》一书仍切中要点，提出了广泛的论点和预言，这些都是学者和政策制定者在思索即将来临的亚洲世纪时必须斟酌的。

1 persuasive   

adj.有说服力的，能说得使人相信的

参考例句：

• His arguments in favour of a new school are very persuasive.他赞成办一座新学校的理由很有说服力。
• The evidence was not really persuasive enough.证据并不是太有说服力。

2 exertions   

n.努力( exertion的名词复数 )；费力；（能力、权力等的）运用；行使

参考例句：

• As long as they lived, exertions would not be necessary to her. 只要他们活着，是不需要她吃苦的。 来自辞典例句
• She failed to unlock the safe in spite of all her exertions. 她虽然费尽力气，仍未能将那保险箱的锁打开。 来自辞典例句

3 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

4 commentator   

n.注释者，解说者；实况广播评论员

参考例句：

• He is a good commentator because he can get across the game.他能简单地解说这场比赛，是个好的解说者。
• The commentator made a big mistake during the live broadcast.在直播节目中评论员犯了个大错误。

5 influential   

adj.有影响的，有权势的

参考例句：

• He always tries to get in with the most influential people.他总是试图巴结最有影响的人物。
• He is a very influential man in the government.他在政府中是个很有影响的人物。

6 contemplating   

深思，细想，仔细考虑( contemplate的现在分词 )； 注视，凝视； 考虑接受（发生某事的可能性）； 深思熟虑，沉思，苦思冥想

参考例句：

• You're too young to be contemplating retirement. 你考虑退休还太年轻。
• She stood contemplating the painting. 她站在那儿凝视那幅图画。

7 wizened   

adj.凋谢的；枯槁的

参考例句：

• That wizened and grotesque little old man is a notorious miser.那个干瘪难看的小老头是个臭名远扬的吝啬鬼。
• Mr solomon was a wizened little man with frizzy gray hair.所罗门先生是一个干瘪矮小的人，头发鬈曲灰白。

8 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

9 deft   

adj.灵巧的，熟练的（a deft hand 能手）

参考例句：

• The pianist has deft fingers.钢琴家有灵巧的双手。
• This bird,sharp of eye and deft of beak,can accurately peck the flying insects in the air.这只鸟眼疾嘴快，能准确地把空中的飞虫啄住。

10 allusion   

n.暗示，间接提示

参考例句：

• He made an allusion to a secret plan in his speech.在讲话中他暗示有一项秘密计划。
• She made no allusion to the incident.她没有提及那个事件。

11 fluency   

n.流畅，雄辩，善辩

参考例句：

• More practice will make you speak with greater fluency.多练习就可以使你的口语更流利。
• Some young children achieve great fluency in their reading.一些孩子小小年纪阅读已经非常流畅。

12 reverberate   

v.使回响，使反响

参考例句：

• The decision will reverberate and will jar the country.这项决定将引起反响并震撼这个国家。
• Echoes of cries of pain reverberate in my hear.痛苦呼喊的一遍遍的在我的心中回响。

13 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

14 assertive   

adj.果断的，自信的，有冲劲的

参考例句：

• She always speaks an assertive tone.她总是以果断的语气说话。
• China appears to have become more assertive in the waters off its coastline over recent years.在近些年，中国显示出对远方海洋的自信。

15 provocative   

adj.挑衅的，煽动的，刺激的，挑逗的

参考例句：

• She wore a very provocative dress.她穿了一件非常性感的裙子。
• His provocative words only fueled the argument further.他的挑衅性讲话只能使争论进一步激化。

16 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

17 inordinately   

adv.无度地，非常地

参考例句：

• But if you are determined to accumulate wealth, it isn't inordinately difficult. 不过，如果你下决心要积累财富，事情也不是太难。 来自互联网
• She was inordinately smart. 她非常聪明。 来自互联网

18 animated   

adj.生气勃勃的，活跃的，愉快的

参考例句：

• His observations gave rise to an animated and lively discussion.他的言论引起了一场气氛热烈而活跃的讨论。
• We had an animated discussion over current events last evening.昨天晚上我们热烈地讨论时事。

19 assessments   

n.评估( assessment的名词复数 )；评价；（应偿付金额的）估定；（为征税对财产所作的）估价

参考例句：

• He was shrewd in his personal assessments. 他总能对人作出精明的评价。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Surveys show about two-thirds use such assessments, while half employ personality tests. 调查表明，约有三分之二的公司采用了这种测评；而一半的公司则采用工作人员个人品质测试。 来自百科语句

20 ideology   

n.意识形态，(政治或社会的)思想意识

参考例句：

• The ideology has great influence in the world.这种思想体系在世界上有很大的影响。
• The ideal is to strike a medium between ideology and inspiration.我的理想是在意识思想和灵感鼓动之间找到一个折衷。

21 hews   

v.（用斧、刀等）砍、劈( hew的第三人称单数 )；砍成；劈出；开辟

参考例句：

• The voice of the Lord hews out flames of fire. 诗29:7耶和华的声音使火焰分岔。 来自互联网

22 attests   

v.证明( attest的第三人称单数 )；证实；声称…属实；使宣誓

参考例句：

• The child's good health attests his mother's care. 这孩子健康的身体证实他母亲照料周到。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The boy's good health attests to his mother's care. 这个男孩的良好健康就是他母亲细心照顾的明证。 来自辞典例句

23 orientating   

v.朝向( orientate的现在分词 )；面向；确定方向；使适应

参考例句：

• Aerotropism A TROPISM in which the orientating stimulus is oxygen. 向氧性：一种刺激方向为氧气的向性运动。 来自互联网

24 geographic   

adj.地理学的，地理的

参考例句：

• The city's success owes much to its geographic position. 这座城市的成功很大程度上归功于它的地理位置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Environmental problems pay no heed to these geographic lines. 环境问题并不理会这些地理界限。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

25 flair   

n.天赋，本领，才华；洞察力

参考例句：

• His business skill complements her flair for design.他的经营技巧和她的设计才能相辅相成。
• He had a natural flair for business.他有做生意的天分。

26 anecdotes   

n.掌故，趣闻，轶事( anecdote的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• amusing anecdotes about his brief career as an actor 关于他短暂演员生涯的趣闻逸事
• He related several anecdotes about his first years as a congressman. 他讲述自己初任议员那几年的几则轶事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

27 contemplate   

vt.盘算，计议；周密考虑；注视，凝视

参考例句：

• The possibility of war is too horrifying to contemplate.战争的可能性太可怕了，真不堪细想。
• The consequences would be too ghastly to contemplate.后果不堪设想。