美国下一步对朝鲜的三个选项

 　　Victor Cha, a White House adviser¹ on North Korea during the George W Bush administration, described the reclusive nation as “the land of lousy options”. It is a reality the Trump² administration is now facing weeks after it ordered a review of its strategy toward the aggressive, isolated³ country.

　　曾在小布什(George W Bush)政府期间担任白宫朝鲜事务顾问的维克托?查(Victor Cha)，把朝鲜这个封闭的国家描述为“艰难选择之地”。这是特朗普(Trump)政府下令重审美国对这个充满侵略性、与世隔绝的国家的战略几周之后所面临的现实。

　　Rex Tillerson, US secretary of state, will visit Asia next week in an attempt to “try and generate a new approach to North Korea”. The former Exxon chief may struggle to find fresh ideas. Here are his options:

　　国务卿雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)将于下周出访亚洲，试图“尝试和形成一种新的对朝策略”。这位前埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)掌舵人也许很难找到新想法。这里是他的几个选项：

　　Cut a deal

　　达成协议

　　On the campaign trail last year, Donald Trump said he would be willing to sit down for a burger with Kim Jong Un.

　　在去年的竞选中，唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)表示，他愿意和金正恩(Kim Jong Un)一起坐下来吃汉堡。

　　The suggestion, while unlikely given North Korea’s supreme⁴ leader has not ventured past his own borders since he ascended⁵ to power, raised the prospect⁶ that the US under a self-professed dealmaker president could strike a landmark⁷ agreement.

　　鉴于朝鲜最高领导人自上台后从未冒险离开本国，这一提议不大可能实现，但它增加了自封为交易撮合者的总统领导下的美国与朝鲜达成一项里程碑式协议的可能性。

　　The notion has some currency among North Korea watchers, who believe the country would be more inclined to negotiate on its nuclear and ballistic weapons programmes if its back was not against the wall.

　　这个想法在一定程度上获得了朝鲜观察家的支持。他们认为，如果不是毫无退路，朝鲜将更愿意就其核武器和弹道武器计划展开谈判。

　　“If the US really hopes to achieve peace on the Korean peninsula, it should stop looking for ways to stifle⁸ North Korea’s economy and undermine Kim Jong Un’s regime and start finding ways to make Pyongyang feel more secure,” wrote John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University, in a recent Foreign Affairs article.

　　不久前，延世大学(Yonsei University)教授鲁乐汉(John Delury)在《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)撰文称：“如果美国真的希望实现朝鲜半岛的和平，那么就应该停止想方设法扼杀朝鲜的经济和破坏金正恩政权，而要开始想办法使平壤方面感到更安全。”

　　“This might sound counterintuitive. But consider this: North Korea will start focusing on its prosperity instead of its self-preservation only once it no longer has to worry about its own destruction.”

　　“这听起来可能违反直觉，但请考虑一点，朝鲜只有不再担心自己被摧毁，才会开始关注其国内繁荣，而不是自卫。”

　　Such a deal might entail⁹ the cancellation¹⁰ of US-South Korea military drills or even the prospect of an official peace treaty on the Korean peninsula in exchange for a moratorium¹¹ on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons development.

　　这样的协议也许包括取消美韩军事演习，甚至包括就朝鲜半岛问题签署正式和平条约、换取朝鲜暂停开发核武器的可能性。

　　On Monday Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said such a “dual suspension” would help break the security dilemma¹². Beijing, a long-time ally of Pyongyang, is widely seen as pivotal player in any scenario¹³.

　　中国外长王毅周一表示，这种“双暂停”将有助于摆脱安全困境。外界广泛认为，朝鲜的长期盟友中国在任何解决方案中都是一个关键角色。

　　The carrot and stick

　　胡萝卜加大棒

　　For most officials and experts, including former US director of national intelligence James Clapper, the possibility of voluntary de-nuclearisation is a lost cause.

　　对于包括前美国国家情报总监(DNI)詹姆斯?克拉珀(James Clapper)在内的大多数官员和专家而言，朝鲜自愿弃核的可能性根本不存在。

　　Yet for others it must be the first step. Without it, the world is simply “borrowing tomorrow’s peace”, according to Chun Yung-woo, a former leader of South Korean negotiations¹⁵ with the North.

　　但对于其他人来说，弃核必须是第一步。曾任韩国对朝谈判主要代表的千英宇(Chun Yung-woo)表示，没有这一步，世界只是在“透支明天的和平”。

　　Previous deals with North Korea have been undercut by mutual¹⁶ distrust and a lack of transparency in Pyongyang. The breathing space gained from reduced tensions ultimately helped the regime propel its weapons programmes.

　　以前与朝鲜达成的协议，因彼此猜忌和平壤方面缺乏透明度而受到削弱。从紧张减轻中获得的喘息空间，最终帮助朝鲜政权加快了其武器研发计划。

　　Critics of a deal scenario, including Mr Chun, argue that sanctions must be ratcheted up to the point where the Kim regime is on the edge of collapse¹⁷. Then aggressive diplomacy¹⁸ must be enacted¹⁹ to force Mr Kim to abandon his nuclear ambitions.

　　包括千英宇在内的对达成协议的前景持批评态度的人认为，必须加大制裁力度，直到金正恩政权走到崩溃边缘。接着，必须启动强势的外交攻势，迫使金正恩放弃他的核野心。

　　Such experts believe the young marshal will only negotiate when faced with overthrow²⁰ at home borne out of economic turmoil²¹.

　　这些专家认为，只有在国内面对经济动荡引发的政权被推翻危险时，这位年轻元帅才会进行谈判。

　　“Sanctions should be a tool to bring North Korea back to the negotiation¹⁴ table,” said Yang Moo-jin from the University of North Korean studies in Seoul.

　　“制裁应该成为使朝鲜回到谈判桌的工具，”首尔朝鲜研究大学(University of North Korean Studies)的杨武仁(Yang Moo-jin)表示。

　　This line of reasoning, however, is undermined by the ineffectiveness of the current round of sanctions, the most severe yet.

　　然而，当前这一轮制裁未奏效，削弱了这种推理思路。这轮制裁是迄今最严厉的一轮。

　　The US could bolster²² these measures with a secondary boycott²³ of Chinese companies doing business with North Korea, said Kim Jaechun, a professor at Sogang University, but that “would do irreparable harm to its ties with China”.

　　西江大学(Sogang University)教授金宰春(Kim Jae-chun)说，美国可以通过抵制跟朝鲜做生意的中国企业，加大制裁力度，但这“将给美中关系造成不可挽回的损害”。

　　Another option would be to freeze North Korea out of the international banking²⁴ system — a possibility that gained ground on Wednesday with reports that Swift, the financial messaging service, had banned three North Korean banks.

　　另一个选项是把朝鲜赶出国际银行体系——周三，这种可能性有所加大，有报道称，金融通讯服务商Swift已禁止三家朝鲜银行使用其系统。

　　Pre-emptive strike

　　先发制人的打击

　　The likely consequences of an attack on North Korea would be so catastrophic the option is rarely discussed seriously.

　　攻击朝鲜造成的可能后果将极为惨重，以至于这一选项很少被认真讨论。

　　In the 1990s US President Bill Clinton considered it, only to be dissuaded²⁵ by estimates of 1m South Korean casualties in retaliatory²⁶ strikes from Pyongyang.

　　在20世纪90年代，美国总统比尔?克林顿(Bill Clinton)考虑过该选项，但朝鲜的报复性打击可能给韩国造成100万伤亡，令他放弃了。

　　The South Korean capital, Seoul, sits a little more than a marathon-run from the border between the two countries — the most militarised zone on earth.

　　韩国首都首尔与朝韩边境的距离略大于马拉松跑的全程长度。朝韩边境是世界上军事化程度最高的区域。

　　Mr Cha on Wednesday said the chances of a strike were “not high because the North Koreans are now getting more and more sophisticated”.

　　维克托?查周三表示，军事打击的可能性“不太大，因为朝鲜军队的能力越来越强”。

　　“In the end the North Korean actions are going to predetermine the outcome of the [US] policy review?.?.?.?The North Koreans are really not giving Trump any room on this.”

　　“最终，朝鲜的行动将预先决定（美国）政策审查的结果……朝鲜人在这方面真的没给特朗普留下任何空间。”

1 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

4 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

5 ascended   

v.上升，攀登( ascend的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He has ascended into heaven. 他已经升入了天堂。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The climbers slowly ascended the mountain. 爬山运动员慢慢地登上了这座山。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

7 landmark   

n.陆标，划时代的事，地界标

参考例句：

• The Russian Revolution represents a landmark in world history.俄国革命是世界历史上的一个里程碑。
• The tower was once a landmark for ships.这座塔曾是船只的陆标。

8 stifle   

vt.使窒息；闷死；扼杀；抑止，阻止

参考例句：

• She tried hard to stifle her laughter.她强忍住笑。
• It was an uninteresting conversation and I had to stifle a yawn.那是一次枯燥无味的交谈，我不得不强忍住自己的呵欠。

9 entail   

vt.使承担，使成为必要，需要

参考例句：

• Such a decision would entail a huge political risk.这样的决定势必带来巨大的政治风险。
• This job would entail your learning how to use a computer.这工作将需要你学会怎样用计算机。

10 cancellation   

n.删除，取消

参考例句：

• Heavy seas can cause cancellation of ferry services.海上风浪太大，可能须要取消渡轮服务。
• Her cancellation of her trip to Paris upset our plan.她取消了巴黎之行打乱了我们的计划。

11 moratorium   

n.(行动、活动的)暂停(期)，延期偿付

参考例句：

• The government has called for a moratorium on weapons testing.政府已要求暂停武器试验。
• We recommended a moratorium on two particular kinds of experiments.我们建议暂禁两种特殊的实验。

12 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

13 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

14 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

15 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

16 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

17 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

18 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

19 enacted   

制定（法律），通过（法案）( enact的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• legislation enacted by parliament 由议会通过的法律
• Outside in the little lobby another scene was begin enacted. 外面的小休息室里又是另一番景象。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

20 overthrow   

v.推翻，打倒，颠覆；n.推翻，瓦解，颠覆

参考例句：

• After the overthrow of the government,the country was in chaos.政府被推翻后，这个国家处于混乱中。
• The overthrow of his plans left him much discouraged.他的计划的失败使得他很气馁。

21 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

22 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

23 boycott   

n./v.(联合)抵制，拒绝参与

参考例句：

• We put the production under a boycott.我们联合抵制该商品。
• The boycott lasts a year until the Victoria board permitsreturn.这个抗争持续了一年直到维多利亚教育局妥协为止。

24 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

25 dissuaded   

劝（某人）勿做某事，劝阻( dissuade的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He was easily dissuaded from going. 他很容易就接受劝告不走了。
• Ulysses was not to be dissuaded from his attempt. 尤利西斯想前去解救的决心不为所动。

26 retaliatory   

adj.报复的

参考例句：

• The process can take years before the WTO approves retaliatory action. 在WTO通过此行动之前，这个程序恐怕要等上一阵子了。 来自互联网
• Retaliatory tariffs on China are tantamount to taxing ourselves as a punishment. 将惩罚性关税强加于中国相当于对我们自己实施课税惩罚。 来自互联网