经济学人23:欧洲的银行们 忧虑因素

 　　Europe;Europe's banks; The fear factor; Preventing a big European bank run;

　　欧洲；欧洲的银行们；忧虑因素；阻止一场欧洲大规模银行挤兑；

　　In continental¹ capitals and bank boardrooms there is a common fear. It is that the slow jog of deposits leaving banks in Greece and, more recently, Spain, may turn into a full-blown run that quickly spreads from bank to bank, and then from country to country. There have already been some warning signs, such as a sudden acceleration² of deposit outflows from Greek banks in May.

　　在欧洲大陆各国首府和银行的董事会议室里弥漫着一种担忧。 希腊各大银行的存款量正在平缓流失, 新近西班牙各银行也陷入同样境况, 这很有可能会转变成一场全面的银行挤兑风暴, 并迅速在银行乃至国家之间传播。 对此已早有征兆, 五月份希腊各银行的存款外流骤然加速就是例证。

　　A fierce debate is now taking place as to the best way to avert³ a run that, if it started, might be difficult to contain and could lead to massive capital flight from the euro zone's peripheral⁴ countries, which have 1.8 trillion Euro(2.2 trillion Dollar) in household deposits (see chart). Increasing numbers of people think the answer is greater financial integration⁵. On May 30th the European Commission said there ought to be “full economic and monetary⁶ union, including a banking⁷ union; integrated financial supervision⁸ and a single deposit guarantee scheme”.

　　目前, 关于如何最为有效地防止一场全面风暴正引起一场激烈争论。 因为挤兑一旦开始蔓延, 可能难以遏制, 而且可能导致欧元区边缘国家出现大量资本流失, 而这些国家家庭存款拥有量达1.8万亿欧元(即2.2万亿美元)。(如图所示)。 越来越多的人认为应该加强欧元区金融一体化。 5月30日, 欧盟委员会指出应建立"全面的经济与货币联盟, 包括银行业的联盟; 以及完整统一的金融监督和单一存款保障计划"。

　　The first step is to shore up confidence in the region's banks by making sure they have enough capital to withstand a crisis. It is far cheaper to recapitalise banks, after all, than to stand behind all of their deposits. Yet such efforts have been bungled⁹ time and again. Europe has twice over the past two years tried to reassure¹⁰ depositors and investors¹¹ that its banks are sound by subjecting them to “stress tests” that were supposed to mimic¹² an economic downturn. In each case the tests were soon followed by revelations of deep capital holes in some banks (newly nationalised Bankia among them). Since some national regulators have lost the confidence of markets, they are having to bring in outsiders to assess how much capital their banks need.

　　第一步, 要通过确保区域内各银行有足够的资金能够抵御一次经济危机, 以此增强银行的信心. 毕竟, 调整银行资本结构相比保障各银行的存款量, 所需代价要小的多。 然而这样的努力却一再以失败告终。 在过去两年中, 欧洲曾两次尝试让各银行在一场摹拟的经济危机中接受"压力测试", 证明这些银行都运作良好安全可靠, 试图以此恢复储户和投资者们的信心。 但紧接着这两次压力测试之后均有消息曝出某些银行存在严重的资金缺口(其中包括一些新近被收归国有的银行)。 因为一些国家监管机构已经失去市场的信任, 他们正被迫请一些机构外的人士来参与评估这些银行所需资金量。

　　Actually raising the capital is the next big problem for countries such as Spain or Italy, which are already struggling to convince markets that their public debt is sustainable. Ideally it should come from the European Stability Mechanism¹³ (ESM), Europe's new bail-out fund, as a direct capital injection into banks rather than as loans to governments, which then use the money to recapitalise their ailing¹⁴ lenders.

　　实际上, 募集资金是西班牙, 意大利等国家面临的下一个大问题, 他们已经在费尽心思希望说服市场相信其国债的可持续性。 理想的办法是, 他们所需资金能由欧洲稳定机制(ESM)提供, 作为欧洲新的紧急财政援助基金给银行直接注资而非贷款给政府部门, 然后再利用这些资金对其陷入困境的银行进行资本结构调整。

　　Injecting capital is politically difficult. Core countries such as Germany fret¹⁵ they will lose a lever of influence over government policies in peripheral countries by handing over equity¹⁶. They also stand a greater chance of losing money if the ESM takes on the risk of bank investing, not least because they know even less about the balance-sheets of individual lenders than those of national governments. Peripheral countries are less than keen on handing ownership of important banks to bureaucrats¹⁷ in Brussels. And unless the capital is accompanied by supervisory reforms, local regulators may encourage banks to lend more freely at home since the risk of loss will have been exported.

　　直接注资从政治上讲很难实施。 德国等核心国家担心一旦转付资金他们就会失去其在边缘国家政府政策制定方面的影响力。 如果ESM冒险给银行注资, 他们面临经济损失的风险会更大, 相当重要的原因是他们本来对各银行资产负债表的了解比对各政府的资产负债表的了解还要模糊。 各边缘国家也不想将他们重要银行的所有权交给布鲁塞尔的官僚们。 并且注资同时如不进行监督机制改革, 当地监管机构可能会鼓励银行更多地为本国个人或机构提供贷款, 因为损失的风险会被输出。

　　Recapitalising banks would not put the catch on every trigger for a run, however. The worry among depositors is not just that their bank will go bust¹⁸, it is also that their deposits in euros may overnight turn into a less valuable currency. So savers in the periphery¹⁹ would need some additional reassurance²⁰ that their money is safe.

　　尽管如此, 银行的资本结构调整不会触发挤兑危机. 储户们担心他们的存款银行会破产, 同时也害怕他们以欧元为计算单位的存款会在一夜之间贬值。 因此, 要让边缘国家的储户相信他们的存款是安全的还需要一些其他的安抚措施。

　　The job of providing this extra comfort usually falls to national deposit-insurance funds, ideally ones that are prefunded with assets worth about 1.5% of insured deposits, as is the case in America and Europe. If a medium-sized bank goes bust, prefunded schemes can usually pay depositors immediately; European countries insure qualifying deposits up to 100,000 Euro. For big banks, or for systemic crises, funds are usually backed by their governments.

　　这项额外的安抚工作通常是由国家存保机构来完成的. 按照美国和欧洲的当前情况, 最好是预先拨款资金额等同于承保存款额的1.5%. 如果一家中等规模的银行倒闭, 预先拨款计划可以立即启动, 对储户进行偿付, 欧洲国家对符合投保要求的存款承保上限为10万欧元。 至于大银行破产或涉及整个金融系统的危机, 则由政府出资解决。

　　Such schemes are fine in normal times, but do not do much to reassure people that their deposits won't be repaid in a different currency (or that their money will be safe if their own government cannot stand behind the scheme). That has prompted calls for a European insurance fund which would guarantee repayment²¹ in euros. The idea is appealing, but the politics and logistics of a credible²² guarantee are daunting²³.

　　这样的计划在一般情况下是没有问题, 但要使人们相信他们的存款不会通过另一种货币来偿还则作用不大.(如果他们的政府都无法支撑起这样的计划, 他们也就很难相信他们的存款是安全的). 这就使得必须有一种欧洲保险基金能够担保在存款偿付时使用欧元。 这种想法是十分吸引人的, 但实施一项可信的担保计划涉及的政治事务和组织工作却令人望而生畏。

　　Household and corporate²⁴ deposits across the euro area total some 7.6 trillion Euro. Assuming you wanted to limit the insurance to household deposits only, the figure is still 5.9 trillion Euro. Not all of this would be covered by a guarantee. A European Commission study in 2010 reckoned that 72% of deposits (and 95% of deposit accounts) fall under the 100,000 Euro limit. What's more, a European fund would not have to be big enough to deal with simultaneous deposit runs across all of Europe but only with ones in the periphery, since money would presumably flow to banks in core countries such as Germany. So the fund would have to be big enough to cover only some 1.3 trillion Euro in insured deposits in the periphery.

　　整个欧元区的家庭与企业存款总和达7.6万亿欧元。 假使你只为家庭存款提供担保, 承保金额也达5.9万亿。 这些存款不会都得到担保。 欧盟委员会2010年的一项研究推测有72%的存款(95%的储蓄账户)在10万欧元承保限额的范围之内。 更重要的是, 欧盟基金无需庞大到足以应付欧洲各国同时发生存款流失危机,仅需足够应付边缘国家发生的此类情况即可。 因为存款应该是流向德国等核心国家银行的。 如此一来, 欧盟基金就只需足够担保边缘国家大约1.3万亿存款。

　　The question then is how much of that amount a prefunded scheme would have to set aside. Economists²⁵ at Citigroup reckon that a fund ought to start with a baseline of 2% of insured deposits, and then top up that amount with an additional premium²⁶ to reflect the risk that peripheral countries may leave the euro and that their currencies would then depreciate²⁷. Assuming a less-than-10% chance of all the peripheral countries leaving, and that when they did their currencies would fall by 30%, a prefunded scheme would need 154 billion Euro-198 billion. Such a fund should ordinarily be financed by a small insurance premium on deposits, but since the money is needed to restore confidence now, it would have to be backed by the ESM.

　　问题在于这项预先拨款计划需要拨出多少资金。 花旗银行经济学家认为这笔资金必须以承保存款总额的2%为下限, 再在此基础上加上一个风险溢价, 用以反映边缘国家可能退出欧元区及其货币随之贬值的风险。假定所有边缘国家都退出欧元区的可能性低于10%, 且他们一旦退出, 他们的货币会贬值30%, 那么这项预先拨款计划将需要1540-1980亿资金。 这样一笔资金通常是由小型存款保险费来支付, 但现在正需要钱用来重塑储户信心, 导致这笔资金只能由ESM来提供。

　　Again, none of this is easy to achieve. Banks and voters in core countries (let alone Britain, whose position in a more integrated European banking system is very muddy) would be reluctant to insure peripheral deposits. Without beefed-up European supervision, it could lead to banks taking too many risks. Critics say that even a prefunded scheme would soon be depleted²⁸ were a run to take hold. But a flawed scheme would be better than nothing.

　　不过, 这一切完成起来都是困难重重. 各核心国家的银行和当权者们(英国更不用提, 在日益完整统一的欧洲银行体系中, 其地位十分扑塑迷离)都不愿意为边缘国家的存款提供保障.不增强欧盟的监管职能, 可能会导致银行承担太多风险。 批评家们称形势一旦恶化, 即便是预先拨款计划也会被迅速耗尽。 但是一项有缺陷的计划总要好过什么都不做。

1 continental   

adj.大陆的，大陆性的，欧洲大陆的

参考例句：

• A continental climate is different from an insular one.大陆性气候不同于岛屿气候。
• The most ancient parts of the continental crust are 4000 million years old.大陆地壳最古老的部分有40亿年历史。

2 acceleration   

n.加速，加速度

参考例句：

• All spacemen must be able to bear acceleration.所有太空人都应能承受加速度。
• He has also called for an acceleration of political reforms.他同时呼吁加快政治改革的步伐。

3 avert   

v.防止，避免；转移(目光、注意力等)

参考例句：

• He managed to avert suspicion.他设法避嫌。
• I would do what I could to avert it.我会尽力去避免发生这种情况。

4 peripheral   

adj.周边的，外围的

参考例句：

• We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
• The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。

5 integration   

n.一体化，联合，结合

参考例句：

• We are working to bring about closer political integration in the EU.我们正在努力实现欧盟內部更加紧密的政治一体化。
• This was the greatest event in the annals of European integration.这是欧洲统一史上最重大的事件。

6 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

7 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

8 supervision   

n.监督，管理

参考例句：

• The work was done under my supervision.这项工作是在我的监督之下完成的。
• The old man's will was executed under the personal supervision of the lawyer.老人的遗嘱是在律师的亲自监督下执行的。

9 bungled   

v.搞糟，完不成( bungle的过去式和过去分词 )；笨手笨脚地做；失败；完不成

参考例句：

• They bungled the job. 他们把活儿搞糟了。
• John bungled the job. 约翰把事情搞糟了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

10 reassure   

v.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• This seemed to reassure him and he continued more confidently.这似乎使他放心一点，于是他更有信心地继续说了下去。
• The airline tried to reassure the customers that the planes were safe.航空公司尽力让乘客相信飞机是安全的。

11 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

12 mimic   

v.模仿，戏弄；n.模仿他人言行的人

参考例句：

• A parrot can mimic a person's voice.鹦鹉能学人的声音。
• He used to mimic speech peculiarities of another.他过去总是模仿别人讲话的特点。

13 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

14 ailing   

v.生病

参考例句：

• They discussed the problems ailing the steel industry. 他们讨论了困扰钢铁工业的问题。
• She looked after her ailing father. 她照顾有病的父亲。

15 fret   

v.(使)烦恼；(使)焦急；(使)腐蚀，(使)磨损

参考例句：

• Don't fret.We'll get there on time.别着急，我们能准时到那里。
• She'll fret herself to death one of these days.她总有一天会愁死的.

16 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

17 bureaucrats   

n.官僚( bureaucrat的名词复数 )；官僚主义；官僚主义者；官僚语言

参考例句：

• That is the fate of the bureaucrats, not the inspiration of statesmen. 那是官僚主义者的命运，而不是政治家的灵感。 来自辞典例句
• Big business and dozens of anonymous bureaucrats have as much power as Japan's top elected leaders. 大企业和许多不知名的官僚同日本选举出来的最高层领导者们的权力一样大。 来自辞典例句

18 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

19 periphery   

n.(圆体的)外面；周围

参考例句：

• Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe.从地理位置上讲，英国处于欧洲边缘。
• The periphery of the retina is very sensitive to motion.视网膜的外围对运动非常敏感。

20 reassurance   

n.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• He drew reassurance from the enthusiastic applause.热烈的掌声使他获得了信心。
• Reassurance is especially critical when it comes to military activities.消除疑虑在军事活动方面尤为关键。

21 repayment   

n.偿还，偿还款；报酬

参考例句：

• I am entitled to a repayment for the damaged goods.我有权利索取货物损坏赔偿金。
• The tax authorities have been harrying her for repayment.税务局一直在催她补交税款。

22 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

23 daunting   

adj.使人畏缩的

参考例句：

• They were faced with the daunting task of restoring the house.他们面临着修复房子的艰巨任务。
• Starting a new job can be a daunting prospect.开始一项新工作有时会让人望而却步。

24 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

25 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

26 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

27 depreciate   

v.降价，贬值，折旧

参考例句：

• The computer value will depreciate by $ 500 in the first year.在头一年里这台电脑会贬值500美元。
• If you neglect this property,it will depreciate.如果你忽视这份资产，它无形中就贬值了。

28 depleted   

adj. 枯竭的, 废弃的 动词deplete的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• Food supplies were severely depleted. 食物供应已严重不足。
• Both teams were severely depleted by injuries. 两个队都因队员受伤而实力大减。