经济学人38:全球房价 Global house prices

 　　Finance and Economics；Global house prices;Downdraft;

　　财经；全球房价; 全球房价日渐衰落;

　　European house prices are finding it harder to defy gravity;

　　欧洲房价难以扭转乾坤;

　　From the late 1990s home prices across the rich world soared relentlessly¹ upward, borne aloft on a gale² of cheap capital. In 2006 some overvalued markets began crashing to earth. Until recently, however, the correction seemed remarkably³ contained. American and Irish home prices plunged⁴, giving up all the gains of the previous decade, but others have fallen far less steeply. Some markets faltered⁵ and then stabilised. The latest update of The Economist's global house-price indicators⁶ hints that this period of post-crisis calm may be coming to an end.

　　上世纪90年代起，发达国家的房价借廉价资本之风冲上云霄，高居不下。2006年部分被高估的楼市开始回落。然而直至近日，回落势头似乎才得以控制。 美国、爱尔兰的住房房价急遽下滑，前十年积攒的楼市盈余全部打了水漂。较前两国而言，其他国家的房价下滑则较为平缓。一些楼市虽起伏不定，随后却能趋于稳定。本刊最新更新的全球房价指数暗示，暴风雨前的宁静期或将告终。

　　Europe's gravity-defying act has been the most striking. Most of its largest housing markets—Germany is the big exception—boomed in the early 2000s and stumbled during the crisis. But fortunes have diverged⁷ since then. Irish prices plunged and continue to sink. House prices in most other markets are still well above “fair value”, which we define as the long-run average of two measures: the price-to-income ratio, a gauge⁸ of affordability⁹, and the price-to-rents ratio, an analogue¹⁰ of the price-to-earnings ratio used to judge the equity¹¹ value of listed firms. Spanish markets are still overvalued by a quarter on these measures, although prices are falling. In Belgium and France, prices are well above fair value and they continue to rise.

　　欧洲房价跌幅格外惹人注目。除德国之外，多数欧洲大型住房市场无一例外的在21世纪初繁荣，而后受金融危机拖累。各国命运自此分岔。爱尔兰房价急转直下，至今未能刹车。而其余楼市的住房价格却依旧维持在“公平价格”之上。所谓公平价格，即房价对收比和租售比两项指标的长期平均值。其中，房价对收比用于评估评估支付能力，而租售比则模拟市盈率以鉴定上市公司股权价值。西班牙房价虽呈下滑趋势，但楼市仍被高估25%。 比利时和法国的房价则远超公平价格，并继续高飞猛涨。

　　Such buoyancy can largely be attributed to a combination of low interest rates and a preponderance of variable-rate mortgages. But from the third quarter of 2011 to the fourth, as recession bit and bond markets wobbled, European house prices came under downward pressure. The pace of depreciation¹² quickened around the periphery¹³ of the euro zone. Appreciation¹⁴ slowed in Germany and France. The euro area's downturn probably continued into the first quarter of 2012 and may persist beyond that. Unemployment is rising across the continent and banks are under pressure to shore up balance-sheets (see article). Prices will struggle to rise in such conditions, in over- and undervalued markets alike.

　　楼市呈现如此繁荣景象，很大程度上应归功于低利率和浮息按揭的优势。而在2011年第三季度至第四季度间，经济衰退来袭，债券市场暴跌，欧洲房价不负重压开始跌落。欧元区边缘国家跌幅加速，德法两国涨幅放缓。预计2012年第一季度欧元区将持续萎靡，低迷之势抑或加剧。欧洲大陆失业之风蔓延，银行肩负平衡资产负债表之压。此般情形之下，无论在楼市被高估与否，房价势必难以反弹。

　　Housing markets have also cooled in far healthier economies. China's government spent much of 2011 reining¹⁵ in its scorching¹⁶ housing sector¹⁷ by limiting multiple home purchases, raising interest rates and hiking banks' reserve requirements. Soaring prices now look a thing of the past: values were essentially¹⁸ flat in the year to the fourth quarter of 2011. A fragile Europe and a cooling China have taken the wind out of other Asian housing markets. Values continue to rise in Singapore but more slowly than in the third quarter of last year. Australian home values fell faster in the fourth quarter than in the third.

　　一些健康经济体的楼市热浪也已消退。2011年中国政府耗费大量精力通过限制个人购房数，提高利率以及提高银行准备金标准来压制过热的房价。 如今看来，飙升的房价已呈回落之势：2011年第三季度房价走势基本平缓。 萎靡脆弱的欧洲和日益冷静的中国也削弱了其他亚洲楼市的锐气。新加坡房价持续走高，但涨幅较去年第三季度相比明显放缓。澳大利亚住房价格第四季度的跌幅则大于第三季度。

　　America's housing-market correction has gone further than most. On our gauge, prices nationally are 19% below fair value. Economic conditions are improving, and the unemployment rate is down sharply from a year ago. Home sales and construction are depressed¹⁹ relative to normal levels but rose substantially in early 2012 from the prior year. Prices keep falling, however. According to the latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices, home values in large markets were down by 3.8% in the year to January. That was better than a 4.1% drop in December but still horribly disappointing.

　　美国楼市回落之势最大。本刊指数表显示，全美房价低于公平价格19%。而美国的经济状况日渐转好，失业率也较去年急剧锐减。去年至今年年初住房销量和建筑量虽大幅上升，但与正常水平相对略显萧条。然而房价持续下滑。最新公布的标普住房价格指数显示，今年一月大型楼市房价下降了3.8%。虽比12月下跌4.1%要好，但依旧令人极其失望。

　　Better times are in sight. Buying a house looks like an increasingly good bet compared with renting, according to The Economist's calculations. Indeed, rising rents are helping²⁰ to cut into a backlog²¹ of unsold homes; in February, 23% of home sales were to investors²², many of whom will switch the properties into rentals²³.

　　好日子指日可待。本刊预计，买房看上去越来越比租房划算。飙升的租金确实有助于抛售积压房产。今年二月住房销售量中，23%由投资者购买，而其中大部分房产将转用于出租。

　　Canadians have reason to quake at the wrenching²⁴ correction going on south of the border. House prices in Canada are above their 2007 mark, and appreciation accelerated from the third quarter of 2011 to the fourth. The price-to-rent ratio now indicates that Canadian properties are 76% overvalued, though things look less bubbly on the income measure and Canadian lenders are a far more disciplined bunch than pre-crisis American lenders were. The government hopes to prod²⁵ markets into a slowdown by toughening financing rules.

　　加拿大人绝对有理由为美国骤然回落的房价担忧。加拿大房价远超2007年水平，2011年第三季度到第四季度间增幅加速。 尽管单用收入衡量，加拿大楼市看似则不那么泡沫，而且加拿大的贷方远比金融危机前的美国贷方有教养，但目前租售比显示加拿大房产被高估了76%。加拿大政府则希望通过强化融资规来刺激楼市放缓。

　　In large, global cities there is another dimension to house-price movements. Where foreign demand is an important part of the local property market, exchange rates matter for affordability, as our analysis of prices adjusted for trade-weighted exchange rates indicates (see chart). Consider London. Homes there may feel as expensive as ever to Britons, but a large sterling²⁶ depreciation means houses look some 15% cheaper to foreigners now than they did five years ago. Dollar weakness has left New York homes some 30% cheaper for international buyers than in 2006. By contrast, a dearer loonie has driven up Toronto home values by nearly 90% since 2006, compared with a rise of 32% in local-currency terms. The yuan's slow but steady rise has magnified appreciation in Shanghai. Small wonder Chinese buyers are so visible in London and Manhattan.

　　国际大都市的房价波动还有一个特点。本刊对房价随贸易加权汇率的变动的分析显示（见上图），若当地房地产市场以国外需求为主，购买力必受外汇汇率的影响。举伦敦为例，在英国人眼中的房价也许与往常持平，但对外国买家而言，英镑的大幅贬值使得英国住房比5年前便宜约15%。美元疲软拖累纽约房价，使其比2006年便宜了近30%，国际买家坐收渔利。 反之，2006年起不断升值的路尼则将多伦多的房价抬升近90%，按本币计算相对上涨32%。受缓慢稳健升值的人民币影响，上海房价涨幅扩大。难怪来伦敦和曼哈顿买房的中国人越来越多。

1 relentlessly   

adv.不屈不挠地；残酷地；不间断

参考例句：

• The African sun beat relentlessly down on his aching head. 非洲的太阳无情地照射在他那发痛的头上。
• He pursued her relentlessly, refusing to take 'no' for an answer. 他锲而不舍地追求她，拒不接受“不”的回答。

2 gale   

n.大风，强风，一阵闹声（尤指笑声等）

参考例句：

• We got our roof blown off in the gale last night.昨夜的大风把我们的房顶给掀掉了。
• According to the weather forecast,there will be a gale tomorrow.据气象台预报，明天有大风。

3 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

4 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

5 faltered   

（嗓音）颤抖( falter的过去式和过去分词 )； 支吾其词； 蹒跚； 摇晃

参考例句：

• He faltered out a few words. 他支吾地说出了几句。
• "Er - but he has such a longhead!" the man faltered. 他不好意思似的嚅嗫着：“这孩子脑袋真长。”

6 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

7 diverged   

分开( diverge的过去式和过去分词 )； 偏离； 分歧； 分道扬镳

参考例句：

• Who knows when we'll meet again? 不知几时咱们能再见面！
• At what time do you get up? 你几时起床？

8 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

9 affordability   

可购性

参考例句：

• Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
• There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。

10 analogue   

n.类似物；同源语

参考例句：

• The gill of a fish is the analogue of the lung of a cat.鱼的鳃和猫的肺是类似物。
• But aside from that analogue standby,the phone, videoconferencing is their favorite means of communication.除了备用的相似物电话，可视对话是他们最喜欢的沟通手段。

11 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

12 depreciation   

n.价值低落，贬值，蔑视，贬低

参考例句：

• She can't bear the depreciation of the enemy.她受不了敌人的蹂躏。
• They wrote off 500 for depreciation of machinery.他们注销了500镑作为机器折旧费。

13 periphery   

n.(圆体的)外面；周围

参考例句：

• Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe.从地理位置上讲，英国处于欧洲边缘。
• The periphery of the retina is very sensitive to motion.视网膜的外围对运动非常敏感。

14 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

15 reining   

勒缰绳使（马）停步( rein的现在分词 )； 驾驭； 严格控制； 加强管理

参考例句：

• "That's a fine bevy, Ma'm,'said Gerald gallantly, reining his horse alongside the carriage. "太太！好一窝漂亮的云雀呀！" 杰拉尔德殷勤地说，一面让自己的马告近塔尔顿的马车。
• I was a temperamental genius in need of reining in by stabler personalities. 我是个需要由更稳重的人降服住的神经质的天才。

16 scorching   

adj. 灼热的

参考例句：

• a scorching, pitiless sun 灼热的骄阳
• a scorching critique of the government's economic policy 对政府经济政策的严厉批评

17 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

18 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

19 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

20 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

21 backlog   

n.积压未办之事

参考例句：

• It will take a month to clear the backlog of work.要花一个月的时间才能清理完积压的工作。
• Investment is needed to reduce the backlog of repairs.需要投资来減轻积压的维修工作。

22 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

23 rentals   

n.租费，租金额( rental的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• In some large hotels, the income derived from this source actually exceeds income from room rentals. 有些大旅馆中，这方面的盈利实际上要超过出租客房的盈利。 来自辞典例句
• Clerk: Well, Canadian Gifts is on the lower level. It's across from Prime Time Video Rentals. 噢，礼品店在楼下，在黄金时刻录像出租屋的对面。 来自口语例句

24 wrenching   

n.修截苗根，苗木铲根（铲根时苗木不起土或部分起土）v.（猛力地）扭( wrench的现在分词 )；扭伤；使感到痛苦；使悲痛

参考例句：

• China has been through a wrenching series of changes and experiments. 中国经历了一系列艰苦的变革和试验。 来自辞典例句
• A cold gust swept across her exposed breast, wrenching her back to reality. 一股寒气打击她的敞开的胸膛，把她从梦幻的境地中带了回来。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）

25 prod   

vt.戳，刺；刺激，激励

参考例句：

• The crisis will prod them to act.那个危机将刺激他们行动。
• I shall have to prod him to pay me what he owes.我将不得不催促他把欠我的钱还给我。

26 sterling   

adj.英币的(纯粹的，货真价实的)；n.英国货币(英镑)

参考例句：

• Could you tell me the current rate for sterling, please?能否请您告诉我现行英国货币的兑换率？
• Sterling has recently been strong,which will help to abate inflationary pressures.英国货币最近非常坚挺，这有助于减轻通胀压力。