经济学人63:中国的利率

 　　Interest rates in China

　　中国的利率

　　A small step forward

　　向前一小步

　　China’s central bank has liberalised lending rates. Does it matter?

　　中国的央行放开了借贷利率，这有用吗？

　　Jul 27th 2013 | SHANGHAI |From the print edition

　　NOBODY can accuse the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, of being gun-shy. A few weeks ago its clumsy attempt to restrain dodgier forms of bank lending led to a bout¹ of market panic. Many said the episode would chill enthusiasm for further experimentation².

　　没人能指责作为中国央行的中国人民银行行动慎重。几周之前，央行笨拙地试探了收紧银行贷款，这引起了市场的一阵恐慌。许多人表示这会降低进一步作出改革的热情。

　　But on July 20th the PBOC experimented again. On that day the central bank ended all restrictions³ on lending rates, which previously⁴ had a floor of 70% of the PBOC benchmark rate. Banks are now free to set lending rates (save those for residential⁵ mortgages) at any level they want.

　　但是在7月20日的时候，中国人民银行又做出了改革。当天，央行放开了借贷利率的限制，之前的标准是借贷利率不得低于央行标准额的0.7倍。现在银行可以自由设定贷款利率了。对住房抵押贷款的人来说是好消息。

　　In truth, the measure is less bold than it appears. The interest-rate reform that everyone is waiting for is liberalisation of deposit rates. China’s policy of financial repression⁶ has capped the rate that banks can pay depositors, even as it put a floor on the rate at which they must lend. That has guaranteed fat profits for the big state banks, like Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, that dominate the financial system.

　　事实上，这个措施没有看起来那么大胆。人们想要的利率改革是存款利率的放开。中国的金融压制政策限定了银行给存款者的最高利率，正如也设定了贷款利率一样。这个政策保证了大型国有银行，例如中国银行，中国工商银行的丰厚利润，同时他们也主导了金融体系。

　　The liberalisation of lending rates may be a half-measure, but officials still hope it will increase competition among banks and spur lending to the corporate⁷ sector⁸, especially to private firms that have long been starved of capital. Sceptics point out that the PBOC moved the floor for the lending rate from 90% of its benchmark to 70% a year ago, but Chinese banks did not rush to lend below the 90% mark. That suggests they are unlikely to cut rates now.

　　放开贷款利率只算是半个措施。但是官方依然希望这会增加银行间的竞争，促进资金流向企业部门，尤其是长期缺乏资金的私人公司。怀疑者指出一年前中国人民银行将贷款利率的下限由基准利率的90%下调到70%，而中国的银行并没有马上做出调整。那意味着银行并不想马上下调利率。

　　A rival view argues that borrowers with strong bargaining power, such as big state-owned enterprises (SOEs), will now be emboldened⁹ to push the big banks for cheaper loans. Some suggest that non-performing loans at SOEs may be rolled over at negligible interest rates, disguising what is, in effect, a state bail-out.

　　相反的观点是借贷者议价能力很强，像一些大型的国有企业，他们现在会有胆量让银行调低利率。一些人表示国企的不良贷款会延期偿还，利率也会很低，实际上相当于国家纾困。

　　On this view, as lower rates eat into their profits the big banks will be forced to look for higher-margin opportunities at the small and medium-sized private firms that they have long ignored. That in turn will put them in direct competition with smaller, private-sector joint-stock banks, such as China Merchants and China Minsheng, that have focused on this area.

　　从这个角度看，低利率会啃食大型银行的利润，他们会将目光转移到长期忽视的中小企业身上，贷款给这些企业利润更高。这会使他们与长期参与中小企业贷款的小型私营股份制银行产生直接竞争，比如中国招商银行，中国民生银行。

　　If so, China’s banks may be about to enter a rocky period. ChinaScope Financial, a research firm, has analysed how increased competition and declining net interest margins¹⁰ will affect banks operating in China. The boffins conclude that the smallest local outfits¹¹, known as city commercial banks, and the middling private-sector banks will be hit hardest, but that returns on equity¹² at the big five state banks will also be squeezed (see chart). They think the industry will need $50 billion-100 billion in extra capital over the next two years to keep its capital ratios stable.

　　这样的话，中国的银行可能会进入动荡期。数库财务咨询有限公司分析了竞争的增加和净利息差幅的减少会影响中国银行的运行。研究人员得出结论：小型的地方商业银行和中等私营股份制银行最惨，五大行的权益回报率也会压缩（见表）。他们认为接下来的两年中，银行业需要500亿到1000亿美元的额外资金保证其资本比率稳定。

　　The bigger worry for China’s state banks is the signal sent by the PBOC’s move. The central bank has affirmed its commitment to reform. If those reforms include the liberalisation of deposit rates, then something far more serious than a minor¹³ profit squeeze will befall China’s banks. Guaranteed profitability would end; banks would have to compete for customers; and risk management would suddenly matter. In short, Chinese bankers would have to start working for a living.

　　中国国有银行最大的担忧是央行的行动所发出的信号。央行确认要进行改革。如果改革措施包括放开存款利率，那么中国银行业会面临一个比利润压缩更严重的危机。收益保证将会终结。银行需要争夺客户，风险管理突然变得很重要。总而言之，中国的银行从业人员需要认真干活了。

1 bout   

n.侵袭，发作；一次(阵，回)；拳击等比赛

参考例句：

• I was suffering with a bout of nerves.我感到一阵紧张。
• That bout of pneumonia enfeebled her.那次肺炎的发作使她虚弱了。

2 experimentation   

n.实验，试验，实验法

参考例句：

• Many people object to experimentation on animals.许多人反对用动物做实验。
• Study and analysis are likely to be far cheaper than experimentation.研究和分析的费用可能要比实验少得多。

3 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

4 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

5 residential   

adj.提供住宿的；居住的；住宅的

参考例句：

• The mayor inspected the residential section of the city.市长视察了该市的住宅区。
• The residential blocks were integrated with the rest of the college.住宿区与学院其他部分结合在了一起。

6 repression   

n.镇压，抑制，抑压

参考例句：

• The repression of your true feelings is harmful to your health.压抑你的真实感情有害健康。
• This touched off a new storm against violent repression.这引起了反对暴力镇压的新风暴。

7 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

8 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

9 emboldened   

v.鼓励，使有胆量( embolden的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Emboldened by the wine, he went over to introduce himself to her. 他借酒壮胆，走上前去向她作自我介绍。
• His success emboldened him to expand his business. 他有了成就因而激发他进一步扩展业务。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

11 outfits   

n.全套装备( outfit的名词复数 )；一套服装；集体；组织v.装备，配置设备，供给服装( outfit的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• He jobbed out the contract to a number of small outfits. 他把承包工程分包给许多小单位。 来自辞典例句
• Some cyclists carry repair outfits because they may have a puncture. 有些骑自行车的人带修理工具，因为他们车胎可能小孔。 来自辞典例句

12 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

13 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。