经济学人64:步履维艰的德国商业银行

 　　Commerzbank

　　德国商业银行

　　Das slog

　　步履维艰

　　The second-biggest bank in Europe's strongest economy still faces an uphill task

　　欧洲最强经济体的第二大银行仍然面对提高业绩任务。

　　Jul 27th 2013 | Berlin |From the print edition

　　COMMERZBANK'S marketing¹ materials show a woman running in a grey, hooded² jumper, headphones in her ears. Her eyes are locked on the path ahead in determination to finish her workout. This is probably meant to flatter the bank's customers as gritty and hard-working. But it is a better metaphor³ for the bank itself. It is on a long, hard road back to health, a journey that exemplifies the painful reshaping of Europe's troubled banking⁴ system to be smaller, safer and more domestic.

　　德国商业银行的营销材料上画着一名女子，身穿灰色衣服跑步，带着连衣帽，耳朵里塞着耳机。眼神坚毅，死死盯着前方的路，志在完成自己的锻炼计划。这可能是在讨好自己的客户，暗指他们都是坚韧不拔，工作勤奋。但是这个隐喻或许更贴合银行自身的实际。德国商业银行离回到良性发展还有很长的路。这是欧洲陷入危机的银行体系转向更小，更安全和更本土化的痛苦转型的很好的例证。

　　Commerzbank's initial trajectory⁵ through the crisis resembles that of another European lender, Britain's Lloyds Banking Group (LBG). Like LBG, it was a big bank but not the biggest in the country—Deutsche Bank is Germany's colossus. Like Lloyds, it undertook a disastrous⁶ domestic transaction at the worst possible time, buying Dresdner Bank in the summer of 2008 just weeks before LBG gobbled up HBOS. And like the British bank, it quickly ended up tapping state coffers to survive.

　　德国商业银行度过危机的初始轨迹很想另一家欧洲银行，英国的劳埃德斯银行集团。跟劳埃德斯一样，德国商业银行是本国的一家大型银行，但却不是最大的，德国最大的银行是德意志银行。德国商业银行同样经历了一次灾难性的国内收购。它在2008年夏天买下了德累斯顿银行，这是在劳埃德斯吞并苏格兰哈利法斯克银行几周之后。同样的，很快以向国库求救自保结束。

　　The parallels between the two are less obvious now. LBG's shares have risen by 33% in the past three months, and by 133% in the past year. The bank's share price hovers⁷ just below the price the British government paid to buy its 39% stake, which will soon be sold. Things look far less fizzy at Commerzbank. At the time of the rescue deal the bank's boss, Martin Blessing⁸, declared that state ownership should last a maximum of 36 months. More than four years on, its shares still lag the broader index of European banks; its price-to-book ratio is one of the lowest on the continent (see chart). Its 2012 net profit came in at a mere⁹ 6m euros(7.7m dollars).

　　两者现在的处境有所不同。劳埃德斯的股价在过去的三个月中上涨了33%，在去年上涨了133%。该银行的股价稍稍低于英国政府购买其39%股份时的价格，英国政府很快就会将这笔股份卖掉。德国商业银行的处境则要惨得多。德国政府救助与其交易的时候，银行老板Martin Blessing说，国有权最多持续36个月。而现在，四年过去了，其股价仍旧低于欧洲银行的大盘指数。其市净率在欧洲处于最低水平。而在2012年的净利润也只有600万欧(770万美元)。

　　Rumours¹⁰ that the German government might sell its 17% stake to a foreign bank were scotched¹¹ this week. Newspapers speculate whether the bank might exit the DAX, the country's benchmark stockmarket index, leaving Deutsche as the only member bank. Deutsche itself still labours to plump up its own thin capital cushion.

　　本周，德国政府出售其控股的17%给一家外国银行的谣言四起。媒体纷纷推测德国商业银行会不会退出德国DAX指数，这样该指数就只剩德意志银行一家银行股了。德意志银行也忙着增加其缓冲资金。

　　Commerzbank can point to several forces beyond its control. The euro-zone crisis weighs heavily. The restructuring of Greek government debt handed it a big loss. Historically low interest rates have depressed¹² income. Competition from Germany's many small savings¹³ banks and co-operatives puts pressure on fees; online banks are adding to the pressure. A downturn in shipbuilding has hit Commerzbank's big portfolio¹⁴ of loans in that industry. The Basel 3 rules have prompted the bank to retain capital rather than dole¹⁵ it out to shareholders¹⁶. (The bank estimates that its Tier-1 core capital ratio under Basel 3 is 8.4% after a May capital-raising.)

　　德国商业银行能将原因归咎于几个它无法控制的因素。欧元区危机无疑是最大的因素。希腊政府债务重组给其造成了重大损失。史上最低的利率也减少了其收入。来自德国的许多小型储蓄银行的竞争也使其降低自身费用，网上银行也增加了其压力。造船业的衰退也使得其在造船业德组合贷款业务受到沉重打击。巴塞尔3资本规定使得德国商业银行只能保留资本，而不能发放给股东。（银行估计，在巴塞尔3规定下，其一级核心资本比率在五月融资之后达到8.4%）

　　For one bank to have had so much bad luck prompts the question of just how much carelessness, not misfortune, is to blame. Like many European banks, both Commerzbank and Dresdner invested in subprime-mortgage-backed assets before the crisis. And like many of its continental¹⁷ peers, the bank was also a big international lender against chunky assets in areas like shipping¹⁸, aviation and property. About a quarter of its 18.3 billion euros shipping portfolio is non-performing; it is expected to take a charge against lending in Detroit when it next reports results.

　　对于一家银行来说，这么多倒霉事儿遇到一起，只能怪其太粗心，而不能说太不幸了。跟许多其他欧洲银行一样，德国商业银行和德累斯顿银行在危机之前都投资了次贷资产。这个银行也借贷给船舶业，航空业和房地产业。其在船舶业投资达183亿欧，其中有四分之一毫无收益，等下次报告出来该行有可能向底特律的借贷提起指控。

　　Analysts¹⁹ want Commerzbank to keep shedding these “non-core” assets, which stood at 151 billion euros at the end of 2012. Some are easier to offload than others. Holdings of peripheral²⁰ euro-zone government bonds can be gently unwound by letting them run off. But shipping and property loans are longer-term and less liquid, which is why they are now being treated more harshly under the Basel 3 rules. Commerzbank did this month at last manage to sell the British operations of EuroHypo, its commercial-property arm.

　　分析员希望德国商业银行能放弃非核心资产，这些在2012年底占到1510亿欧。有些很容易脱手。所持欧元区其他国家政府的债券会轻微受损。但是船舶业和房地产业的贷款是长期的，流动性也差，这也是在巴塞尔3规则下更严厉的原因。德国商业银行这个月末最终准备卖掉欧洲抵押银行的英国公司，其商业地产分支。

　　As Commerzbank slims down these parts of its balance-sheet, a more Germanic lender is slowly emerging. The strategy is plausible²¹. The combination with Dresdner gave Commerzbank an enviably big retail-branch network and customer base in Europe's strongest economy. The Mittelstandsbank, the division lending to Germany's small and medium-sized, mostly family-owned businesses, is in decent health: 30% of Mittelstand companies are customers, and the pre-tax return on equity²² in this unit was 28.6% in 2012, against 3.1% for the group overall. As these firms go into global markets, where savings banks cannot follow, Commerzbank has a shot at boosting its business with them. Expansion in Poland looks sensible.

　　随着德国商业银行将这些从资产负债表中除去，一个更德国的借贷者出现了。这个战略看起来是有效的。跟德累斯顿银行的合并会使得德国商业银行在欧洲最强经济体拥有一个令人羡慕的大型零售网络和顾客基础。中小企业银行掌管德国的中小企业贷款业务，这些中小企业中很多都是家族企业，2012年，这一业务的税前回报为28.6%，整体业务只有3.1%的回报。随着这些企业的国际化，储蓄银行就无能为力了。德国商业银行有意拓展跟他们的业务。在波兰的扩张看起来很有用。

　　Yet the bank is still some way from turning this vision into reality. A banking consultant²³ quips that the maths of the Dresdner deal amount to “one plus one equals one”. And a domestic focus has its downsides. Fierce local competition from the savings banks and co-operatives will not go away. Nor will the drag from the euro zone's economic prospects²⁴: interest rates will remain low as long as inflation stays subdued²⁵.

　　然而，德国商业银行还是应该回到现实。一个银行业顾问指出，这次的德累斯顿交易是一次亏本买卖。国内的重点业务呈下降趋势。来自储蓄银行的激烈的本地竞争不会停止。欧元区的经济预期是只要通货膨胀得到抑制，利率将会持续走低。这也会拖累银行复兴。

　　So Mr Blessing and his team have little choice but to concentrate on the nuts and bolts. That includes making more cuts in branches and staff (branches have already fallen from about 1,500 to 1,200), controlling their tempo²⁶ so that the bank can reap savings without battering²⁷ its franchise²⁸. One part of this is greater flexibility²⁹ in the offerings at each branch. Not every location needs an expert in everything; more advice can be given online or over the phone. Another is growth in its online division, comdirect. Commerzbank has the scale to build a sophisticated offering; savings banks and co-operatives may not.

　　因此，Blessing先生跟他的团队没有多大选择，只能是集中精力做好细节工作。包括减少分支机构，裁员（分支机构已经从1500个减少到1200个了），控制好节奏，只有这样银行才能从存款中获利，并且不影响其经营。这在各分支有很大的灵活性。不是每个地方都需要专家，可以通过电话或者网络提供建议。还有一个是网上分支的增加。德国商业银行能提供各种复杂的服务，但是储蓄银行则不能。

　　Such strengths should eventually return Commerzbank to fitness. But the miserable³⁰ share price suggests that investors³¹ expect a period of plodding³² before it is back to running at full tilt³³.

　　这些措施应该最终能使得德国商业银行回到正轨。但是其可怜的股价意味着投资者期望其走出困境之前有一段时间的辛勤工作。

1 marketing   

n.行销，在市场的买卖，买东西

参考例句：

• They are developing marketing network.他们正在发展销售网络。
• He often goes marketing.他经常去市场做生意。

2 hooded   

adj.戴头巾的；有罩盖的；颈部因肋骨运动而膨胀的

参考例句：

• A hooded figure waited in the doorway. 一个戴兜帽的人在门口等候。
• Black-eyed gipsy girls, hooded in showy handkerchiefs, sallied forth to tell fortunes. 黑眼睛的吉卜赛姑娘，用华丽的手巾包着头，突然地闯了进来替人算命。 来自辞典例句

3 metaphor   

n.隐喻，暗喻

参考例句：

• Using metaphor,we say that computers have senses and a memory.打个比方，我们可以说计算机有感觉和记忆力。
• In poetry the rose is often a metaphor for love.玫瑰在诗中通常作为爱的象征。

4 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

5 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

6 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

7 hovers   

鸟( hover的第三人称单数 )； 靠近（某事物）； （人）徘徊； 犹豫

参考例句：

• A hawk hovers in the sky. 一只老鹰在天空盘旋。
• A hen hovers her chicks. 一只母鸡在孵小鸡。

8 blessing   

n.祈神赐福；祷告；祝福，祝愿

参考例句：

• The blessing was said in Hebrew.祷告用了希伯来语。
• A double blessing has descended upon the house.双喜临门。

9 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

10 rumours   

n.传闻( rumour的名词复数 )；风闻；谣言；谣传

参考例句：

• The rumours were completely baseless. 那些谣传毫无根据。
• Rumours of job losses were later confirmed. 裁员的传言后来得到了证实。

11 scotched   

v.阻止( scotch的过去式和过去分词 )；制止（车轮）转动；弄伤；镇压

参考例句：

• Plans for a merger have been scotched. 合并计划停止实行。
• The rebellion was scotched by government forces. 政府军已把叛乱镇压下去。 来自辞典例句

12 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

13 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

14 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

15 dole   

n.救济，（失业）救济金；vt.（out）发放，发给

参考例句：

• It's not easy living on the dole.靠领取失业救济金生活并不容易。
• Many families are living on the dole since the strike.罢工以来，许多家庭靠失业救济金度日。

16 shareholders   

n.股东( shareholder的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The meeting was attended by 90% of shareholders. 90%的股东出席了会议。
• the company's fiduciary duty to its shareholders 公司对股东负有的受托责任

17 continental   

adj.大陆的，大陆性的，欧洲大陆的

参考例句：

• A continental climate is different from an insular one.大陆性气候不同于岛屿气候。
• The most ancient parts of the continental crust are 4000 million years old.大陆地壳最古老的部分有40亿年历史。

18 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

19 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

20 peripheral   

adj.周边的，外围的

参考例句：

• We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
• The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。

21 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

22 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

23 consultant   

n.顾问；会诊医师，专科医生

参考例句：

• He is a consultant on law affairs to the mayor.他是市长的一个法律顾问。
• Originally,Gar had agreed to come up as a consultant.原来，加尔只答应来充当我们的顾问。

24 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

25 subdued   

adj. 屈服的，柔和的，减弱的 动词subdue的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He seemed a bit subdued to me. 我觉得他当时有点闷闷不乐。
• I felt strangely subdued when it was all over. 一切都结束的时候，我却有一种奇怪的压抑感。

26 tempo   

n.(音乐的)速度；节奏，行进速度

参考例句：

• The boss is unsatisfied with the tardy tempo.老板不满于这种缓慢的进度。
• They waltz to the tempo of the music.他们跟着音乐的节奏跳华尔兹舞。

27 battering   

n.用坏，损坏v.连续猛击( batter的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The film took a battering from critics in the US. 该影片在美国遭遇到批评家的猛烈抨击。
• He kept battering away at the door. 他接连不断地砸门。 来自《简明英汉词典》

28 franchise   

n.特许，特权，专营权，特许权

参考例句：

• Catering in the schools is run on a franchise basis.学校餐饮服务以特许权经营。
• The United States granted the franchise to women in 1920.美国于1920年给妇女以参政权。

29 flexibility   

n.柔韧性，弹性，（光的）折射性，灵活性

参考例句：

• Her great strength lies in her flexibility.她的优势在于她灵活变通。
• The flexibility of a man's muscles will lessen as he becomes old.人老了肌肉的柔韧性将降低。

30 miserable   

adj.悲惨的，痛苦的；可怜的，糟糕的

参考例句：

• It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他，这是可耻的。
• Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。

31 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

32 plodding   

a.proceeding in a slow or dull way

参考例句：

• They're still plodding along with their investigation. 他们仍然在不厌其烦地进行调查。
• He is plodding on with negotiations. 他正缓慢艰难地进行着谈判。

33 tilt   

v.(使)倾侧；(使)倾斜；n.倾侧；倾斜

参考例句：

• She wore her hat at a tilt over her left eye.她歪戴着帽子遮住左眼。
• The table is at a slight tilt.这张桌子没放平，有点儿歪.