经济学人65:日本准备提高消费税

 　　Japan’s consumption tax

　　日本的消费税

　　Taxonomics

　　税收经济学

　　A crucial rise in a controversial levy¹ may be in doubt

　　提高富有争议的税收引来质疑

　　Aug 3rd 2013 | TOKYO |From the print edition

　　THE Japanese are among the world’s most reluctant taxpayers². They reserve their deepest loathing³ for value-added tax (VAT⁴). That may be because one of the inventors of VAT, Carl Shoup, an American economist⁵, used them as guinea pigs for his new levy during the occupation after the second world war. Japan soon scrapped⁶ VAT, reintroducing a “consumption tax” only in 1989. This quickly became as hated as its foreign-imposed forerunner⁷.

　　日本人是世界上最不情愿的纳税人之一。他们对增值税恨之入骨。可能是因为增值税的发明者之一，美国经济学家Carl Shoup在二战之后用他们作为其新税收类型的小白鼠。日本很快废除了增值税，直到1989年重新引入了一种消费税。很快人们也烦透了这一税收。

　　The gaijin are watching again as Japan struggles to raise the consumption tax for only the second time since its introduction. The IMF, the OECD (a Paris-based club of mainly rich countries) and local institutions all reckon a series of rises is the only way for Japan to control its gross public debt, approaching 250% of GDP.

　　近日日本开始准备第二次提高消费税，这引来了外国人的再次关注。货币基金组织，经合组织和日本国内机构都认为日本控制国债的唯一方法就是提高税收。日本国债已达到GDP的250%之多。

　　The Democratic Party of Japan, which won legislative⁸ backing for the hike last year, argued that without it Japan could soon go the way of Greece. Financial markets have counted on the tax rise going ahead despite a change of government since then. This week the authorities surprised them by saying they would set up a panel to examine whether to proceed as planned.

　　日本的民主党在去年取得了增税的立法支持。民主党表示若不增税，日本可能陷入希腊的境地。从那时起，尽管政府任职有所变动，金融市场一直指望着增税的到来。本周，政府宣布成立专家小组讨论是否增税，这让金融界大为震惊。

　　The plan is to lift the levy from 5% to 8% next April and to 10% in 2015. That would bite just as Abenomics, a popular three-part plan to reflate the economy, designed by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, is taking off. The first two stages, a radical⁹ monetary¹⁰ loosening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and a generous fiscal¹¹ stimulus¹², were aimed at jolting¹³ consumers out of their deflationary mindset and inspiring firms to invest. But so far it is mainly the urban wealthy and big firms that are benefiting. A consumption-tax increase, on the other hand, would immediately lighten all pockets.

　　日本计划明年四月将消费税从5%提高至8%，到2015年进一步提高到10%。由首相安倍晋三设计的安倍经济计划是一个三步走计划，意在重振日本经济，即将开始施行。增税会对安倍经济计划产生不良影响。前两步是通过日本银行激进的货币宽松政策和强劲的财政刺激，去除消费者通货紧缩的思维定势，激励企业投资。但是到目前为止，只有城市财富和大公司从中获利。另一方面，消费税的增加会立即使人们的财富减少。

　　The fear is that a rise in revenues from the tax could be far outweighed¹⁴ by years of lost growth if consumers take fright. The only other consumption-tax rise, of 2% in 1997, was blamed for consigning¹⁵ Japan to a second lost decade, though this coincided with other events such as the Asian financial crisis. Without counting broader knock-on effects, says Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley, the 3% rise scheduled for 2014 would reduce GDP by over 1%.

　　最大的隐患是如若消费者产生恐慌心理，税收的收益会远低于经济增长放缓的损失。唯一的一次消费税增税出现在1997年，增加了2%，被指责使日本陷入了二次衰退。尽管这次衰退还有这其他诸如亚洲金融危机等的原因。摩根斯坦利的Robert Feldman表示，不算其带来的连锁效应，2014年增税3%会使GDP减少至少1%。

　　An alternative could be to lift the tax more gradually. Koichi Hamada, an economist at Yale University who helped to design Abenomics, has said that the levy could be raised in increments¹⁶ of 1% over five years. Mr Abe’s panel will study this option, among others. As long as the tax is raised significantly in some way, says Naka Matsuzawa at Nomura Securities, the bond market would probably stay calm.

　　另一种方法是更循序渐进的增税。耶鲁大学的经济学家Koichi Hamada参与设计了安倍经济计划。他表示增税可以在未来的五年增加1%。安倍先生的团队会研究这一策略。野村证券的Naka Matsuzawa认为，如果增税，债券市场可能会保持冷静。

　　Ditching the tax increase entirely¹⁷ remains¹⁸ unthinkable. Recent economic indicators¹⁹, such as strong real annualised GDP growth of 4.1% in the first quarter, as well as a slightly improved jobs market, leave Mr Abe with little excuse but to go ahead. The BoJ this week added its voice to those pushing for a rise. And taxpayers may be more accepting than the politicians think. An unscientific straw poll by The Economist found that seven out of ten shoppers in Ginza, a high-end shopping district, were ready for a tax increase, as narrowly preferable to a debt crisis.

　　整个的放弃税收增长是不可想象的。最近的经济指标，诸如一季度强劲的真实年化GDP增长达到4.1%，还有人力市场状况的轻微回暖，这些都使得安倍政府必须接着干。本周，日本银行也宣布支持增税。纳税人可能比政治家想的更容易接受增税。经济学人做的一份非学术民意调查发现，七成东京银座的消费者选择准备好了迎接受增税，而不是迎接债务危机。

1 levy   

n.征收税或其他款项，征收额

参考例句：

• They levy a tax on him.他们向他征税。
• A direct food levy was imposed by the local government.地方政府征收了食品税。

2 taxpayers   

纳税人，纳税的机构( taxpayer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Finance for education comes from taxpayers. 教育经费来自纳税人。
• She was declaiming against the waste of the taxpayers' money. 她慷慨陈词猛烈抨击对纳税人金钱的浪费。

3 loathing   

n.厌恶，憎恨v.憎恨，厌恶( loathe的现在分词)；极不喜欢

参考例句：

• She looked at her attacker with fear and loathing . 她盯着襲擊她的歹徒，既害怕又憎恨。
• They looked upon the creature with a loathing undisguised. 他们流露出明显的厌恶看那动物。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

4 vat   

n.(=value added tax)增值税，大桶

参考例句：

• The office is asking for the vat papers.办事处要有关增值税的文件。
• His father emptied sacks of stale rye bread into the vat.他父亲把一袋袋发霉的黑面包倒进大桶里。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 scrapped   

废弃(scrap的过去式与过去分词)； 打架

参考例句：

• This machine is so old that it will soon have to be scrapped. 这架机器太旧，快报废了。
• It had been thought that passport controls would be scrapped. 人们曾认为会放开护照管制。

7 forerunner   

n.前身，先驱（者），预兆，祖先

参考例句：

• She is a forerunner of the modern women's movement.她是现代妇女运动的先驱。
• Penicillin was the forerunner of modern antibiotics.青霉素是现代抗生素的先导。

8 legislative   

n.立法机构，立法权；adj.立法的，有立法权的

参考例句：

• Congress is the legislative branch of the U.S. government.国会是美国政府的立法部门。
• Today's hearing was just the first step in the legislative process.今天的听证会只是展开立法程序的第一步。

9 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

10 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

11 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

12 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

13 jolting   

adj.令人震惊的

参考例句：

• 'she should be all right from the plane's jolting by now. “飞机震荡应该过了。
• This is perhaps the most jolting comment of all. 这恐怕是最令人震惊的评论。

14 outweighed   

v.在重量上超过( outweigh的过去式和过去分词 )；在重要性或价值方面超过

参考例句：

• This boxer outweighed by his opponent 20 pounds. 这个拳击选手体重比他的对手重20磅。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She outweighed me by ten pounds, and sometimes she knocked me down. 她的体重超过我十磅，有时竟把我撞倒。 来自百科语句

15 consigning   

v.把…置于（令人不快的境地）( consign的现在分词 )；把…托付给；把…托人代售；丟弃

参考例句：

• By consigning childhood illiteracy to history we will help make poverty history too. 而且，通过将儿童文盲归于历史，我们也将改变贫穷的历史。 来自互联网

16 increments   

n.增长( increment的名词复数 )；增量；增额；定期的加薪

参考例句：

• These increments were mixed and looked into the 5.56mm catridge case. 将各种药粒进行混和，装在5．56毫米的弹壳中。 来自辞典例句
• The Rankine scale has scale increments equal to the FahrenheIt'scale. 兰氏温标的温度间距与华氏温标的相同。 来自辞典例句

17 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

18 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

19 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。