经济学人67:Raghuram Rajan加入印度储备银行

 　　Raghuram Rajan joins the RBI

　　Raghuram Rajan加入印度储备银行

　　Out of the frying pan

　　脱离苦海

　　A star economist¹ is put in charge of India’s central bank

　　明星经济学家接手印度央行

　　Aug 10th 2013 | MUMBAI |From the print edition

　　RAGHURAM RAJAN is often described as one of the few economists² to predict the financial crisis. In a speech in 2005 to the world’s top central bankers he said innovation had made finance more dangerous. At the time his view was dismissed by Larry Summers, now a front-runner to become chairman of the Federal Reserve (see article), as “slightly Luddite”.

　　Raghuram Rajan经常被说成是少数几个预测到金融危机的经济学家之一。2005年一次向世界顶级央行银行家的演讲中，他说道创新让金融业更危险。当时，Larry Summers并没有理会他的观点，说他有点卢德分子的感觉，恐惧技术变革。现在Larry Summers是美联储主席的热门人选。

　　Mr Rajan has also been right about India. In 2010, as hubris³ in the country soared, he warned that “growth can never be taken for granted” and that “self-delusion is the first step towards disaster.” As he prepares to succeed Duvvuri Subbarao at the helm of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September that caution seems prescient. India’s economy is in a funk and it faces a balance-of-payments scare. The rupee has fallen by 12% against the dollar in the past three months.

　　Mr Rajan’s appointment, announced on August 6th, is welcome. As well as a stint⁴ as chief economist for the IMF and a star turn in academia, he has spent the past year advising the finance ministry⁵ and has been involved in efforts to get India’s reforms back on track (with mixed results). He believes in liberalisation, which India needs lots more of.

　　Rajan先生对印度的观点也是正确的。2010年，印度国内风气十分傲慢，他警告说任何增长都不是理所当然的，自欺是灾难的开始。现在他准备九月份从Duvvuri Subbarao手中接过印度储备银行，这意味着之前的警告是对的。印度经济处于恐惧之中，面临达不到收支平衡的恐惧。过去的三个月，卢布对美元汇率下跌了12%。Rajan先生的任命在8月6号宣布，广受欢迎。作为国际货币基金组织的首席经济学家，同样也是学术界的名宿，他过去一直致力于给印度财政部提供建议，努力使印度改革回到正轨（改革结果各异）。他相信自由经济主义，这正是印度所需。

　　Yet his is an unenviable task. To stabilise the currency the RBI recently introduced a package of measures to suck liquidity⁶ out of the banking⁷ system and in turn raise short-term market interest rates (the RBI’s benchmark rate was unchanged). This seems to be working but may cause a credit crunch⁸ among firms and banks, pushing GDP growth below the present 4-5% rate. India’s position is better than some critics allow: relative to its GDP it has a moderate amount of foreign debt to refinance. Still, for now the RBI must choose between a currency slump⁹ or strangling the economy.

　　然而他的任务艰巨。为了稳定货币，印度储备银行最近引入了一揽子措施减弱银行系统的流动性，提高了短期市场利率（印度储备银行的基准利率没变）。这些措施有所成效，但是可能会在公司和银行之间引起信贷危机，使GDP增长低于现在的4-5%。印度的处境比批评家们所说的要好，与GDP相关的是印度有一定数量的外债来进行再融资。就现在而言，印度储备银行要么选择货币暴跌，要么选择经济崩溃。

　　In the long run the solution is a big burst of government reforms that would restore confidence among foreign and domestic investors¹⁰. But with an election due by May 2014, that looks unlikely. In the meantime, Mr Rajan will have to face other problems. India’s state banks are sitting on a pile of bad debts. The RBI’s recent decision, in principle, to allow India’s business houses to set up their own banks is also a headache. Mr Rajan is a critic of cronyism¹¹ but he will have his work cut out to prevent licences going to well-connected tycoons¹².

　　长期的解决方案是政府改革的大爆发会重树国内外投资者的信心。但是随着2014年5月大选即将到来，这看起来是不可能的。同时，Rajan先生将不得不面对其他问题。印度的国有银行坏账成灾。原则上讲，印度储备银行决定允许印度企业建立自己的银行也很让人头痛。Rajan先生反对任人唯亲，但是如果他阻止向商业大亨们发放许可证可能会丢掉自己的官位。

　　Mr Rajan is no administrator¹³ but will also have to reform the RBI. It is a fine institution, but a stretched one. In the 1990s it toyed with relinquishing¹⁴ some of its vast empire—it runs everything from monetary¹⁵ policy to public-debt issuance and bank regulation. Recently it has clung to its powers only to find that its multiple goals of stability, growth and low inflation conflict. Mr Rajan’s task is to resolve those contradictions. If he succeeds, Western central bankers, who have seen a proliferation in their responsibilities since the crisis, will have another reason to listen to his views.

　　Rajan先生不是行政官，但是他也会改革印度储备银行。该银行是一个不错的机构，但是显得有点捉襟见肘。1990年代，它很随便的放弃了自己的一些业务，当时可是一个大型金融王朝，拥有从货币政策到过国债发放和银行监管等业务。最近，印度储备银行收紧权力却发现稳定，增长与低通货之间冲突不断。Rajan先生的任务是解决这些矛盾。如果他成功了，那么西方的央行银行家会因此而选择听听他的观点，自从金融危机之后，这些银行家就看到了他们责任有所增加。

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 hubris   

n.傲慢，骄傲

参考例句：

• There is no safety in unlimited technological hubris.在技术方面自以为是会很危险。
• The very hubris of French claims alarmed the other powers.法国贪婪的胃口使其他大国惊恐不安。

4 stint   

v.节省，限制，停止；n.舍不得化，节约，限制；连续不断的一段时间从事某件事

参考例句：

• He lavished money on his children without stint.他在孩子们身上花钱毫不吝惜。
• We hope that you will not stint your criticism.我们希望您不吝指教。

5 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

6 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

7 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

8 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

9 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 cronyism   

n.任人唯亲，对好朋友的偏袒

参考例句：

• Many small town mayor and city official practice cronyism.许多小镇的市长和大城市的官员都有任人唯亲的行为。
• Bringing business people into politics can also produce corruption and cronyism.商人从政也容易带来腐败和任人唯亲。

12 tycoons   

大君( tycoon的名词复数 )； 将军； 企业巨头； 大亨

参考例句：

• The great tycoons were fierce competitors, single-minded in their pursuit of financial success and power. 企业巨头都是激烈的竞争者，他们一心追求钱财和权势。
• Tycoons and their conglomerates are even raising money again on international markets. 企业大亨们以及他们的企业甚至正再次从国际市场上筹集资金。

13 administrator   

n.经营管理者，行政官员

参考例句：

• The role of administrator absorbed much of Ben's energy.行政职务耗掉本很多精力。
• He has proved himself capable as administrator.他表现出管理才能。

14 relinquishing   

交出，让给( relinquish的现在分词 )； 放弃

参考例句：

• The international relinquishing of sovereignty would have to spring from the people. 在国际间放弃主权一举要由人民提出要求。
• We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. 我们很明白，没有人会为了废除权力而夺取权力。 来自英汉文学

15 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。