经济学人68:贫困的历史画像

 　　Free exchange

　　Penury¹ portrait

　　贫困的历史画像

　　The consensus² on raising people out of poverty is surprisingly recent

　　直到最近人们才就脱贫问题达成共识，实在令人惊讶

　　Jul 27th 2013 |From the print edition

　　ON JULY 17th India released its latest poverty figures. They tell an encouraging tale: just under 22% of Indians were below the poverty line in 2011-12, down from over 37% in 2004-05. With an election not far off, these statistics will not go unchallenged. Naysayers are already grumbling³ that the numbers have been released early to make the government look good. But even as political opponents slug it out, it is worth noting what they are not arguing about. Nobody is saying that a decline in poverty is a bad thing. Nor does anyone dispute that policymakers should try to help large numbers of poor people out of penury. This mirrors a worldwide consensus: whether the United Nations or the World Bank, sundry⁴ public officials or high-minded celebrities⁵, everyone thinks that poverty alleviation⁶ is both desirable and possible. The debates are about the details.

　　7月17日，印度公布了最新的贫困人口数据。数据表现出一派令人鼓舞的迹象：2011年至2012年间，生活在贫困线以下的印度人口比例从2004至2005年间的37%以上降至22%以下。该数据公布之时恰逢印度国会大选日益临近，因此注定会引发质疑。质疑者已嚷嚷着这些数据提早发布不过是为了彰显政府的政绩。但是，即使政治对手意欲在此问题上与政府争个高下，可争议之外的东西才是值得人们关注的。没人说贫困人口数下降是一件糟糕的事。当然人们也不会就决策层是否应该试着帮助为数众多的穷人脱离贫困展开争论。这一现象反映出一个已在世界范围内达成的共识：不论是联合国（United Nations）或是世界银行（World Bank），还是形形色色的公职人员或心系苍生的名人，人人都认为扶贫不仅可取，而且可行。所有的争论都关乎于细节问题。

　　That might sound wholly unsurprising. Yet in a new paper Martin Ravallion, an economics professor at Georgetown University and a former research director at the World Bank, charts the evolution of thinking on poverty over the past three centuries. He reckons that this consensus is of remarkably⁷ recent vintage. Not that long ago every element of the received wisdom—that poverty is a problem, that public policy should try to reduce the numbers of poor, and that there are good ways to try to do so without hurting the economy—would have been suspect.

　　这听起来完全不足为奇。然而，曾担任过世界银行研究局局长的乔治城大学（Georgetown University）经济学教授马丁?拉瓦雷（Martin Ravallion）在一篇论文中记录了过去三个世纪以来人们对贫困的思考的演变历程。他认为直到最近人们才在贫困的认知方面达成共识。就在不久之前，长期积累下来并且为多数人所接受的观念——贫困是个难题，公共政策应该试着减少贫困人口数量，而且有一些既能够达成这一目标而又不伤害经济发展的方式——一直都受到人们的质疑。

　　According to the mercantilist thinking that dominated European thought between the 16th and 18th centuries, poverty was socially useful. True, it was miserable⁸ for the poor. But it also kept the economic engine humming by ensuring the availability of plentiful⁹ cheap labour. Bernard de Mandeville, an 18th-century economist¹⁰ and philosopher, thought it “manifest, that in a free nation where slaves are not allow’d of, the surest wealth consists in a multitude of laborious¹¹ poor.” That attitude was the norm.

　　在16世纪到18世纪间占据欧洲思想界的重商主义者看来，贫困对社会是有所帮助的。的确，在当时这对穷人来说不啻于一个悲惨的世界。但是，贫困同样确保了充足的廉价劳动力，维持经济引擎不断高速运转。18世纪经济学家兼哲学家的伯纳德?曼德维尔（Bernard de Mandevill）认为贫困“表明，在一个不允许有奴隶存在的自由国度里，最可靠的财富蕴藏在无数勤恳的穷人手中。”这一观点在当时实属平常。

　　If poor people were regarded as instrumental in ensuring economic development, that explains why there was little appetite for policies to help them leave poverty behind. What action there was tended to be palliative in nature. In the 18th century changes to the Poor Laws were designed to stop adverse¹² shocks like failed harvests or bereavements from making life even harder for already poor people. Such policies were designed to protect the poor from the worst deprivations¹³, not to raise them up.

　　如果穷人被视为确保经济发展的工具，这就解释为什么在当时几乎没有人愿意制定实行帮助穷人脱离贫困的政策了。为消除贫困而采取的任何行动在当时看来根本就是治标不治本的。18世纪，修订《济贫法》的目的便是避免那些业已陷入贫困的人们遭受更悲惨的打击，比如说农作物歉收或遭受丧亲之痛，以免他们的生活更加艰辛。制定此类政策的目的是保护穷人免于陷入彻底的赤贫，而不是帮助他们脱离贫困。

　　In the late 18th century attitudes towards the poor took on a moralising tone. Thomas Malthus, a clergyman, blamed the plight¹⁴ of the poor on their own flaws. Technological¹⁵ change might drive wages above subsistence levels, but only temporarily because the fecundity¹⁶ of the poor would soon drive wages back down. His thinking inspired the introduction of a new Poor Law in 1834, which tried to make the workhouse their only option. “Outdoor relief”—giving the poor money—needed to be stopped.

　　18世纪后半叶，人们在对贫穷的看法中夹杂了道德论调。身为牧师的托马斯?马尔萨斯（Thomas Malthus）将穷人的困苦归咎于他们自身的不足。技术革新或许会驱使薪资上涨到能维持温饱的水平之上，但是这只是暂时的，因为穷人的多生多育很快就会带动薪资回落。他的思想启发了当时政府在1834年引进实施了一部新的《济贫法》，试图使去济贫院成为穷人唯一的选择。“院外救济”——给穷人发钱——必须终止。

　　Adam Smith took a more humane¹⁷ view. He saw the social and emotional toll¹⁸ poverty could take, and sought to increase support for the idea of redistributive taxation¹⁹: “The rich should contribute to the public expence [sic], not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.” But even the father of economics did not provide a coherent strategy for moving people permanently²⁰ out of poverty.

　　亚当?斯密的观点则更为人性化。他认为贫困会对社会和人们的情绪造成恶劣的影响，同时寻找机会增加人们对税收再分配这一理念的支持。“富人应该为公共支出贡献出一部分所得，不单单以其收入的比例计算，而是应该高于这一比例。”但是，即便是经济学之父也未给帮助人们永远脱离贫困开出一剂疗效持久的药方。

　　By the 20th century the research of Charles Booth and Seebohm Rowntree had brought the issue of poverty firmly into the public consciousness. This in turn encouraged new thinking about the economic rationale for reducing penury. The classical school believed that the real constraint²¹ on growth was aggregate²² savings²³. Given that the rich saved more than the poor, this implied that less poverty would mean lower growth. John Maynard Keynes disputed this view, arguing that it was aggregate consumption that mattered, in which case reducing poverty could actually aid growth. But it was not until the 1990s that a coherent theoretical framework emerged to show how high levels of poverty stifled²⁴ investment and innovation. For example, several models showed how unequal access to credit meant that the poor were less able to invest in their own education or businesses than was optimal²⁵, leading to lower growth for the economy as a whole. Scholars buttressed²⁶ the theory with empirical evidence that high initial levels of poverty reduced subsequent growth in developing countries.

　　20世纪，查尔斯?布斯（Charles Booth）和希波姆?朗特里（Seebohm Rowntree）将贫困问题深深地刻入了公众的意识之中。这一举动反过来鼓励了人们对减少贫困的经济原理有了全新思考。古典学派相信真正制约经济增长的是总储蓄量。由于富人比穷人储蓄的多，这表明贫困人数越少就意味着经济增长率越低。约翰?梅纳德?凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）驳斥了这一观点，他认为总消费量起到了至关重要的作用，在这种情况下，减少贫困实际上能够有助于增长。但是直到1990年代，一个统一的理论框架才出现，表明高水平的贫困如何限制了投资和创新。比如说，有些经济学模型表明获得信贷的机会不均等是如何导致穷人比优秀的人更无力于投资自身的教育或是生意，进而导致整个社会的经济增长处于较低的水平。学者们用无可辩驳的证据给为之一理论提供了支持：在发展中国家，初始的高水平贫困率降低了该国后继的经济增长。

　　Poor relations

　　牵强的联系

　　New theories of poverty were also overturning received notions of why the poor stayed poor. The fault had long been placed at their door: the poor were variously lazy, prone²⁷ to alcoholism and incapable²⁸ of disciplined work. Such tropes are still occasionally heard today, but the horrors of the Depression in the 1930s led many to re-evaluate the idea that poverty was mainly the result of people’s own actions. Advances in economic models meanwhile allowed policymakers to see how low levels of education, health and nutrition could keep people stuck in penury. Policies to subsidise education or health care were desirable not merely for their own sake but also because they would help people break out of poverty.

　　新的贫困理论同样也颠覆了人们长久以来对穷人深陷贫穷原因的认知。一直以来都认为穷人是咎由自取：穷人想方设法偷懒，容易酗酒并且不能从事要求纪律性的工作。今天这些陈词滥调依然不时的喧嚣尘上，但是1930年代经济大萧条期间的惨况使一些人重新审视了贫困主要是人自身行为的恶果这一个观念。同时，经济学模型不断完善，使得决策者们认识到低水平的教育、健康和营养是如何使人们陷入贫困难以自拔。补贴教育和医保的政策能够得以执行不单单是因为自身的缘故，同样还因为这政策能够帮助人们摆脱贫困。

　　The growth of “conditional cash transfers”, schemes like Brazil’s Bolsa Familia that give poor people money as long as they send their children to school or have them vaccinated²⁹, are logical developments of these ideas. The notion of schooling³⁰ the poor to a better life seemed absurd in the era of de Mandeville: “Going to school in comparison to working is idleness, and the longer boys continue in this easy sort of life, the more unfit they’ll be when grown up for downright labour.” Such poverty of thinking may sound archaic³¹, but it persisted for longer than you might think.

　　“有条件的现金补助计划”的增多正是这些理念合乎逻辑的演进，比如说巴西的“家庭补助金计划”，只要人们将孩子送去学校或是给孩子接种牛痘疫苗，政府就给他们发放现金。在曼德维尔所处的时代，为了能过上更好的生活而让穷人去上学的理念似乎有些荒谬。“与工作比起来，上学就是懒惰的表现，而且孩子们过这种简单生活的时间越长，长大之后越难以适应完全的体力劳动。”这对关于贫困的想法听起来可能会感觉有些过时，但是它们持续的时间超乎你的想象。

1 penury   

n.贫穷，拮据

参考例句：

• Hardship and penury wore him out before his time.受穷受苦使他未老先衰。
• A succession of bad harvest had reduced the small farmer to penury.连续歉收使得这个小农场主陷入了贫困境地。

2 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

3 grumbling   

adj. 喃喃鸣不平的, 出怨言的

参考例句：

• She's always grumbling to me about how badly she's treated at work. 她总是向我抱怨她在工作中如何受亏待。
• We didn't hear any grumbling about the food. 我们没听到过对食物的抱怨。

4 sundry   

adj.各式各样的，种种的

参考例句：

• This cream can be used to treat sundry minor injuries.这种药膏可用来治各种轻伤。
• We can see the rich man on sundry occasions.我们能在各种场合见到那个富豪。

5 celebrities   

n.（尤指娱乐界的）名人( celebrity的名词复数 )；名流；名声；名誉

参考例句：

• He only invited A-list celebrities to his parties. 他只邀请头等名流参加他的聚会。
• a TV chat show full of B-list celebrities 由众多二流人物参加的电视访谈节目

6 alleviation   

n. 减轻，缓和，解痛物

参考例句：

• These were the circumstances and the hopes which gradually brought alleviation to Sir Thomas's pain. 这些情况及其希望逐渐缓解了托马斯爵士的痛苦。
• The cost reduction achieved in this way will benefit patients and the society in burden alleviation. 集中招标采购降低的采购成本要让利于患者，减轻社会负担。 来自英汉 - 翻译样例 - 口语

7 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

8 miserable   

adj.悲惨的，痛苦的；可怜的，糟糕的

参考例句：

• It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他，这是可耻的。
• Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。

9 plentiful   

adj.富裕的，丰富的

参考例句：

• Their family has a plentiful harvest this year.他们家今年又丰收了。
• Rainfall is plentiful in the area.这个地区雨量充足。

10 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

11 laborious   

adj.吃力的，努力的，不流畅

参考例句：

• They had the laborious task of cutting down the huge tree.他们接受了伐大树的艰苦工作。
• Ants and bees are laborious insects.蚂蚁与蜜蜂是勤劳的昆虫。

12 adverse   

adj.不利的；有害的；敌对的，不友好的

参考例句：

• He is adverse to going abroad.他反对出国。
• The improper use of medicine could lead to severe adverse reactions.用药不当会产生严重的不良反应。

13 deprivations   

剥夺( deprivation的名词复数 )； 被夺去； 缺乏； 匮乏

参考例句：

• At this, some of the others chime in with memories of prewar deprivations. 听到这话，另外那些人中有几个开始加进来讲述他们对战前贫困生活的回忆。 来自柯林斯例句

14 plight   

n.困境，境况，誓约，艰难；vt.宣誓，保证，约定

参考例句：

• The leader was much concerned over the plight of the refugees.那位领袖对难民的困境很担忧。
• She was in a most helpless plight.她真不知如何是好。

15 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

16 fecundity   

n.生产力；丰富

参考例句：

• The probability of survival is the reciprocal of fecundity.生存的概率是生殖力的倒数。
• The boy's fecundity of imagination amazed his teacher.男孩想像力的丰富使教师感到惊异。

17 humane   

adj.人道的，富有同情心的

参考例句：

• Is it humane to kill animals for food?宰杀牲畜来吃合乎人道吗？
• Their aim is for a more just and humane society.他们的目标是建立一个更加公正、博爱的社会。

18 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

19 taxation   

n.征税，税收，税金

参考例句：

• He made a number of simplifications in the taxation system.他在税制上作了一些简化。
• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。

20 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

21 constraint   

n.(on)约束，限制；限制(或约束)性的事物

参考例句：

• The boy felt constraint in her presence.那男孩在她面前感到局促不安。
• The lack of capital is major constraint on activities in the informal sector.资本短缺也是影响非正规部门生产经营的一个重要制约因素。

22 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

23 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

24 stifled   

（使）窒息， （使）窒闷( stifle的过去式和过去分词 )； 镇压，遏制； 堵

参考例句：

• The gas stifled them. 煤气使他们窒息。
• The rebellion was stifled. 叛乱被镇压了。

25 optimal   

adj.最适宜的；最理想的；最令人满意的

参考例句：

• What is the optimal mix of private and public property rights in natural resources?私人和国家的自然资源产权的最适宜的组合是什么？
• Optimal path planning is a key link for the sailing contest.帆船最优行驶路径规划是帆船比赛取胜的关键环节。

26 buttressed   

v.用扶壁支撑，加固( buttress的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The court buttressed its decision. 法院支持自己的判决。 来自辞典例句
• The emotional appeal was buttressed with solid and specific policy details. 情感的感召有坚实的和详细的政策细节支持。 来自互联网

27 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

28 incapable   

adj.无能力的，不能做某事的

参考例句：

• He would be incapable of committing such a cruel deed.他不会做出这么残忍的事。
• Computers are incapable of creative thought.计算机不会创造性地思维。

29 vaccinated   

[医]已接种的，种痘的，接种过疫菌的

参考例句：

• I was vaccinated against tetanus. 我接种了破伤风疫苗。
• Were you vaccinated against smallpox as a child? 你小时候打过天花疫苗吗？

30 schooling   

n.教育；正规学校教育

参考例句：

• A child's access to schooling varies greatly from area to area.孩子获得学校教育的机会因地区不同而大相径庭。
• Backward children need a special kind of schooling.天赋差的孩子需要特殊的教育。

31 archaic   

adj.(语言、词汇等)古代的，已不通用的

参考例句：

• The company does some things in archaic ways,such as not using computers for bookkeeping.这个公司有些做法陈旧，如记账不使用电脑。
• Shaanxi is one of the Chinese archaic civilized origins which has a long history.陕西省是中国古代文明发祥之一，有悠久的历史。