经济学人:全球面临债务危机 中国为何能全身而退?

 　　You can find bubbliness in bits of American finance, including the corporate-bond market, and some nasty off-balance-sheet liabilities like student loans and public-sector pensions, but America does not look like a source of imminent¹ trouble.

　　你可以在美国金融里找到泡沫碎片，包括证券市场，和一些严重的表外负债，像学生贷款和公共部门养老金，但是美国看起来并不会产生迫在眉睫的麻烦。

　　Britain and Japan have changed less. Abenomics has improved Japan's prospects², but government debt is still close to 250% of GDP.

　　英国和日本改变较少。安备经济学已提高日本的经济预期但是，政府债务仍相当于GDP的250%左右。

　　In Britain the combination of budget cuts and weak private investment has produced a recovery that is built on the same ingredients—particularly rising house prices—that caused the last bust³.

　　在英国，预算减少与个人投资力弱双重作用之下，催生了建立在相同因素上的复苏--尤其是不断上涨的房价---这引发了最后的破产。

　　Britain is not about to fell the world economy, but growth that was based more on investment, both public and private, would be an awful lot safer.

　　英国并不打算让世界经济雪上加霜，但基于更多公共和私人投资的增长将极其缓慢。

　　What about emerging economies, many of which have seen a big run-up in debt?

　　许多新兴经济体债务迅猛增高，他们情况如何？

　　China is often dubbed⁴ a Lehman-in-the-making.

　　中国经常被称作“一个正在形成的雷曼兄弟”

　　Since 2008 credit growth in the Middle Kingdom, now the world's second-largest economy, has exploded, and by some estimates is over 200% of GDP.

　　自2008年起中国信贷开始增长，现在，这个位居世界第二的经济大国，已经爆炸，并且据估计，其债务已经相当于GDP的200%左右。

　　China's financial system has few international connections.

　　中国金融体系同国际联系较少。

　　But, as in America in 2008, there is uncertainty⁵ about the true size of its debts and how much of them will be repaid.

　　但是，正如2008年的美国，中国也不确定其债务的真正规模以及他们将要归还的债务总量。

　　The danger China poses depends on the third ingredient of the Lehman conflagration⁶: how the government behaves when trouble strikes.

　　中国呈现的危险建立在雷曼灾难的第三个因素上，在危机来临时政府采取怎样的举措。

　　The country is a big net saver, the banking⁷ system is still largely deposit-funded and the government has the fiscal⁸ capacity to underwrite troubled loans.

　　中国是位净储存大户，银行体系仍很大程度上依靠储户存款筹资并且，政府有承担不良贷款的财政实力。

　　Provided it does so, the odds⁹ of a sudden collapse¹⁰ with global ramifications¹¹ are low.

　　考虑到此种情况，中国银行体系受国际影响而突然崩溃的几率低。

　　From Brazil to Thailand, many of the other emerging economies that are now wobbling have also seen credit booms.

　　从巴西到泰国，其他的许多目前正步履蹒跚地新兴经济体，也已经经历了信贷热潮。

　　The difference with China is their vulnerability to global financial flows.

　　同中国不同的是，这些国家易受全球金融流动影响。

　　Today's drought in foreign capital is pushing down currencies like India's rupee and making current-account deficits¹² harder to finance.

　　如今，外国资本匮乏，正压低像印度卢比之类的货币，并且使得往来账户赤字较难融资。

　　In the 1990s that dynamic caused crises. But this time round most countries' defences are more powerful.

　　在20世纪90年代，是这种资本的流动引发了危机。但这一次，许多国家有更有力的防御措施。

　　Exchange rates float, far more debt is denominated in domestic currency and reserves are fatter.

　　汇率浮动，更多的债务以本币计价，并且，外汇储备充裕。

　　Some places may be overwhelmed: our index of vulnerability has Turkey flashing reddest.Most are likely to suffer slower growth.

　　许多地方可能遭受重创：土耳其在脆弱指数上不断闪现红灯，其他许多国家可能遭遇经济增长放缓。

　　If there is one part of the world that could still bring about another global meltdown, it is the euro area.

　　如果说这个世界上仍有一个地方，仍然能够引爆另一场国际灾难，那么这个地方，就是欧元区。

　　Though less Lehman-like than a year ago, it remains¹⁴ a worry.

　　尽管情况比一年前有所好转，但是，欧元区仍然令人担忧。

　　Its debt problems are growing, not shrinking: European banks have thinner equity¹⁵ buffers¹⁶ than their American counterparts, and have written down far fewer debts.

　　欧元区债务问题并非减少而是在增加；同他们的美国同行相比，欧洲银行股本缓冲较少，欠债总额更少。

　　In the troubled economies on Europe's periphery¹⁷ recession has made it hard to reduce debt burdens of all sorts.

　　在欧洲周边陷入困境的国家中，经济衰退让它们更难以减少各种债务负担。

　　Too much austerity has proved counterproductive.

　　实行了太多的财政紧缩却最终事与愿违。

　　A destabilising political back lash¹³ remains a danger, given Europe's sky-high jobless rates.

　　考虑到欧洲极高的失业率，其不稳定的政治后患仍俱危险性。

　　Its sleepwalking leaders cannot agree on how to complete necessary reforms, such as a proper banking union, while the European Central Bank's ability to live up to its brave pledge to “do whatever it takes” to save the euro remains untested.

　　尽管欧洲央行践行其勇敢的承诺（不惜一切代价拯救欧元）的能力还有待观察，但欧洲茫然不知所措的领导人仍不能就如何完成诸如一场银行合适地联盟之类的必要改革，达成一致。

　　There may be no new Lehman-sized catastrophes¹⁸ on the near horizon.

　　也许近期不会再有新一轮，与雷曼兄弟危机同等规模的灾难爆发。

　　But plenty of smaller crises-in-the-making dot the landscape—and a potentially big one continues to threaten Europe.

　　但是小规模的潜在危机漫山遍野--和一个潜在的大危机，会持续威胁欧洲。

　　Five years on, global finance is a long way from safe.

　　五年过去了，国际金融在变安全之前，还有很长的路要走。

　　1.jobless rates 失业率

　　例句:The severe recession and high jobless rates have not done nearly enough to lower labor¹⁹ costs.

　　严重的经济衰退和高失业率尚不足以降低劳动力成本。

　　2.live up to 做到；不辜负

　　例句:Sales have not lived up to expectations this year.

　　今年的销售额不尽如人意。

　　3.foreign capital 外资

　　例句:This point of view of foreign capital and investment bank's analysis of the line.

　　这对外国资本和投资银行的在线分析的观点。

　　4.sky-high 极高的；高昂的

　　例句:Prices go sky-high whenever there is inflation.

　　通货膨胀时，物价总是飞涨。

1 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

2 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

3 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

4 dubbed   

v.给…起绰号( dub的过去式和过去分词 )；把…称为；配音；复制

参考例句：

• Mathematics was once dubbed the handmaiden of the sciences. 数学曾一度被视为各门科学的基础。
• Is the movie dubbed or does it have subtitles? 这部电影是配音的还是打字幕的？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

6 conflagration   

n.建筑物或森林大火

参考例句：

• A conflagration in 1947 reduced 90 percent of the houses to ashes.1947年的一场大火，使90%的房屋化为灰烬。
• The light of that conflagration will fade away.这熊熊烈火会渐渐熄灭。

7 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

8 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

9 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

10 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

11 ramifications   

n.结果，后果( ramification的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• These changes are bound to have widespread social ramifications. 这些变化注定会造成许多难以预料的社会后果。
• What are the ramifications of our decision to join the union? 我们决定加入工会会引起哪些后果呢？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

13 lash   

v.系牢；鞭打；猛烈抨击；n.鞭打；眼睫毛

参考例句：

• He received a lash of her hand on his cheek.他突然被她打了一记耳光。
• With a lash of its tail the tiger leaped at her.老虎把尾巴一甩朝她扑过来。

14 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

15 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

16 buffers   

起缓冲作用的人（或物）( buffer的名词复数 )； 缓冲器； 减震器； 愚蠢老头

参考例句：

• To allocate and schedule the use of buffers. 分配和计划缓冲器的使用。
• Number of times the stream has paused due to insufficient stream buffers. 由于流缓冲区不足导致流程暂停的次数。

17 periphery   

n.(圆体的)外面；周围

参考例句：

• Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe.从地理位置上讲，英国处于欧洲边缘。
• The periphery of the retina is very sensitive to motion.视网膜的外围对运动非常敏感。

18 catastrophes   

n.灾祸( catastrophe的名词复数 )；灾难；不幸事件；困难

参考例句：

• Two of history's worst natural catastrophes occurred in 1970. 1970年发生了历史上最严重两次自然灾害。 来自辞典例句
• The Swiss deposits contain evidence of such catastrophes. 瑞士的遗址里还有这种灾难的证据。 来自辞典例句

19 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。