经济学人:何为经济学?重大经济思想突破与板砖

 　　Leaders: Big economic ideas Breakthroughs and brickbats

　　社论：重大经济思想突破与板砖

　　What economists² can learn from the discipline's seminal³ papers

　　经济学家能够从这一学科的经典论文中所学到的

　　It is easy enough to criticise⁴ economists: too superior, too blinkered, too often wrong.

　　批评经济学家是再容易不过了：高高在上，眼界狭隘，错误频频。

　　Paul Samuelson, one of the discipline's great figures, once lampooned⁵ stockmarkets for predicting nine out of the last five recessions.

　　保罗·萨缪尔森，作为该学科的伟人之一，曾经为了预测到过去五次衰退中的9次而嘲讽股市。

　　Economists, in contrast, barely ever see downturns coming. They failed to predict the 2007-08 financial crisis.

　　相比之下，经济学家几乎从来都不去注意即将到来的危机。他们未能预测到2007-08年的金融危机。

　　Yet this is not the best test of success.

　　然而，这不是最好的成功验证。

　　Much as doctors understand diseases but cannot predict when you will fall ill, economists' fundamental mission is not to forecast recessions but to explain how the world works.

　　如同医生通晓百病却不能预测人们会何时得病一样，经济学家的根本任务不是预测衰退，而是解释这个世界是如何运转的。

　　Over the next six weeks we will be running a series of briefs on important economic theories that did just that—from the Nash equilibrium⁶, a cornerstone of game theory, to the Mundell-Fleming trilemma, which lays bare the trade-offs countries face in their management of capital flows, exchange rates and monetary⁷ policy;

　　在今后六周中，我们将刊登一系列短文，论述那些恰恰是完成了这一任务的重要经济理论——从作为博弈论基石的纳什均衡，到阐述国家在管理资本流动、汇率和货币政策时所面对的取舍的蒙代尔—弗莱明三难困境；

　　from the financial-instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky to the insights of Samuelson and Wolfgang Stolper on trade and wages;

　　从海曼·明斯基的金融不稳定假设到萨缪尔森和沃尔夫冈·斯托尔珀关于贸易和工资的洞见；

　　from John Maynard Keynes's thinking on the fiscal⁸ multiplier to George Akerlof's work on information asymmetry⁹, the topic of this week's article.

　　从约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯对财政乘数的思考到乔治·阿克洛夫关于信息不对称的研究，这是本周文章的标题。

　　These breakthroughs are adverts¹⁰ not just for the value of economics, but also for three other things: theory, maths and outsiders.

　　这些突破不仅是对经济学价值的弘扬光大，也是对理论、数学和圈外人等其余三者的广而考之。

　　More than ever, economics today is an empirical discipline.

　　如今，经济学比以往任何时候都是一门实证学科。

　　Thanks to the power of big data, economists can track consumer behaviour in real time or know almost precisely¹¹ how much a good teacher is worth to the lifetime income of children.

　　由于大数据的力量，经济学家能够实时追踪消费者行为，近乎准确地知道一位好老师对于孩子终身收入的具体价值。

　　But theory remains¹² vital.

　　但是，理论仍然非常重要。

　　Many policy failures might have been avoided if theoretical insights had been properly applied¹⁴.

　　要是理论洞见得以正确地应用，许多政策失败本来是可以避免的。

　　The trilemma was outlined in the 1960s, and the fiscal multiplier dates back to the 1930s; both illuminate¹⁵ the current struggles of the euro zone and the sometimes self-defeating pursuit of austerity.

　　三难困境在上世纪60年代就已经有了轮廓，财政乘数也可以追溯至上世纪30年代；两者阐明了欧元区当前的困境以及时常是自欺欺人的紧缩追求。

　　The Nash equilibrium describes an outcome in which everyone is doing as well as they can given the strategies of others; it explains how countries compete with each other to cut tax rates in order to lure¹³ global capital.

　　纳什均衡描述的是一种参与其中的每一个人在得知其他人策略的情况下能做而且正在做的事情的结果；它解释了国家是如何为了吸引全球资本而竞相降低税率。

　　Nor is the body of economic theory complete.

　　经济理论本身也不完整。

　　Big gaps remain in the understanding of financial markets, for example, and on how best to regulate tech platforms like Facebook.

　　例如，在对金融市场的理解方面，在如何最好地监管像脸书这样的科技平台方面，仍旧存在着巨大的差距。

　　The shortfalls are particularly glaring when it comes to modern macroeconomics.

　　这些缺陷在当代宏观经济学中尤其明显。

　　From “secular stagnation” to climate change, the discipline needs big thinkers as well as big data.

　　从“长期停滞”到气候变化，这门学科既需要大数据也需要大思想家。

　　It also needs mathematics.

　　它还需要数学。

　　Paul Romer, who is heading to the World Bank as its chief economist¹, has railed against “mathiness”, the habit of using algebra¹⁶ to disguise ideological¹⁷ positions.

　　即将出任世界银行首席经济学家的保罗·罗默猛烈抨击了“泛数学化”（mathiness）——即使用代数来掩盖意识形态立场的习惯。

　　Economic papers are far too formulaic; models should be a means, not an end. But the symbols do matter.

　　经济学论文千篇一律公式化；模型应当是一种手段，不是一个目的。但是，这些符号的确至关重要。

　　The job of economists is to impose mathematical rigour on intuitions about markets, economies and people.

　　经济学家的工作就是用数学的严谨来影响关于市场、经济和民众的直觉。

　　Maths was needed to formalise most of the ideas in our briefs.

　　在我们这个系列中，数学之所以有需要是为了让大多数思想规范化。

　　In economics, as in other fields, a fresh eye can also make a big difference.

　　如同在其他领域一样，在经济学中，新人也能够带来翻天覆地的变化。

　　John Nash was only 21 when he set out the concept that became known as the Nash equilibrium;

　　纳什在提出闻名遐迩的纳什均衡概念时年仅21岁；

　　Mr Akerlof had not long completed his PhD when he wrote “The Market for Lemons”, the paper that made his name.

　　阿克洛夫在撰写让他成名的《柠檬市场》时刚修完了博士学位不久。

　　New ideas often meet resistance.

　　新思想经常碰壁。

　　Mr Akerlof's paper was rejected by several journals, one on the ground that if it was correct, “economics would be different”.

　　阿克洛夫的论文曾被多家期刊拒绝，其中一家的理由是：如果论文的思想是正确的，“经济学会截然不同”为理由的。

　　Recognition came slowly for many of our theories: Minsky stayed in relative obscurity until his death, gaining superstar status only once the financial crisis hit.

　　对于许多理论来说，承认是慢慢地到来的：明斯基在去世前一直相对默默无闻；只有在金融危机袭来时才获得明星地位。

　　Economists still tend to look down on outsiders.

　　经济学家仍然倾向于小看圈外人。

　　Behavioural economics has broken down one silo by incorporating insights from psychology¹⁸.

　　行为经济学已经用吸收心理学这一真知灼见的行为打破了一座堡垒。

　　More need to disappear: like anthropologists, economists should think more about how individuals' decision-making relates to social mores¹⁹;

　　更多的堡垒需要消失：如同人类学家一样，经济学家应当更多地去思考个人的决定如何与社会习俗相关连；

　　like physicists²⁰, they should study instability instead of assuming that economies naturally self-correct.

　　如同物理学家一样，他们应当研究不稳定而不是假设经济体自然地自我纠错。

　　This could make the maths trickier²¹ still.

　　这或许会让数学更加难以应付。

　　But not as hard as getting the profession to eschew²² its natural insularity²³.

　　但是，再难也没有让这个职业科避开其自然的偏狭那样难。

　　1.fall ill 生病；病倒

　　例句:The men often fall ill and suffer fever, so I have decided²⁴ to take live animals.

　　人们经常患病和发烧，所以我决定带一些活着的动物。

　　2.self-correct 自我修正

　　例句:In teaching college English writing, it's of great significance to encourage students to self-correct errors in writing.

　　在大学英语写作教学中，倡导学生自我纠错非常重要。

　　3.look down 俯视；瞧不起

　　例句:Don't look down on the role women can play.

　　不要瞧不起妇女的作用。

　　4.financial crisis 金融危机

　　例句:This financial crisis had a much greater impact on Main Street.

　　这次金融危机对老百姓的影响更为深远。

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 seminal   

adj.影响深远的；种子的

参考例句：

• The reforms have been a seminal event in the history of the NHS.这些改革已成为英国国民保健制度史上影响深远的一件大事。
• The emperor's importance as a seminal figure of history won't be diminished.做为一个开创性历史人物的重要性是不会减弱的。

4 criticise   

v.批评，评论；非难

参考例句：

• Right and left have much cause to criticise government.左翼和右翼有很多理由批评政府。
• It is not your place to criticise or suggest improvements!提出批评或给予改进建议并不是你的责任！

5 lampooned   

v.冷嘲热讽，奚落( lampoon的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• His cartoons mercilessly lampooned the politicians of his time. 他的漫画毫不留情地嘲讽了他那个年代的政治人物。
• He was lampooned for his political views. 他的政治观点使他成了受奚落的对象。 来自辞典例句

6 equilibrium   

n.平衡，均衡，相称，均势，平静

参考例句：

• Change in the world around us disturbs our inner equilibrium.我们周围世界的变化扰乱了我们内心的平静。
• This is best expressed in the form of an equilibrium constant.这最好用平衡常数的形式来表示。

7 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

8 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

9 asymmetry   

n.不对称；adj.不对称的，不对等的

参考例句：

• These bands must introduce longitudinal asymmetry in the planetary albedo.这些云带必定引起行星反照率的经向不对称性。
• In any event the asymmetry is clear enough.总之，不对称是非常明显的。

10 adverts   

advertisements 广告，做广告

参考例句：

• the adverts on television 电视广告
• The adverts are not very informative. 这些广告并没有包含太多有用信息。

11 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

12 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

13 lure   

n.吸引人的东西，诱惑物；vt.引诱，吸引

参考例句：

• Life in big cities is a lure for many country boys.大城市的生活吸引着许多乡下小伙子。
• He couldn't resist the lure of money.他不能抵制金钱的诱惑。

14 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

15 illuminate   

vt.照亮，照明；用灯光装饰；说明，阐释

参考例句：

• Dreams kindle a flame to illuminate our dark roads.梦想点燃火炬照亮我们黑暗的道路。
• They use games and drawings to illuminate their subject.他们用游戏和图画来阐明他们的主题。

16 algebra   

n.代数学

参考例句：

• He was not good at algebra in middle school.他中学时不擅长代数。
• The boy can't figure out the algebra problems.这个男孩做不出这道代数题。

17 ideological   

a.意识形态的

参考例句：

• He always tries to link his study with his ideological problems. 他总是把学习和自己的思想问题联系起来。
• He helped me enormously with advice on how to do ideological work. 他告诉我怎样做思想工作，对我有很大帮助。

18 psychology   

n.心理，心理学，心理状态

参考例句：

• She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
• He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。

19 mores   

n.风俗，习惯，民德，道德观念

参考例句：

• The mores of that village are hard to believe.那村子的习俗让人难以置信。
• We advocate a harmonious society where corruption is swept away,and social mores are cleared.我们提倡弊绝风清，建设一个和谐社会。

20 physicists   

物理学家( physicist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• For many particle physicists, however, it was a year of frustration. 对于许多粒子物理学家来说，这是受挫折的一年。 来自英汉非文学 - 科技
• Physicists seek rules or patterns to provide a framework. 物理学家寻求用法则或图式来构成一个框架。

21 trickier   

adj.狡猾的( tricky的比较级 )；（形势、工作等）复杂的；机警的；微妙的

参考例句：

• This is the general rule, but some cases are trickier than others. 以上是一般规则，但某些案例会比别的案例更为棘手。 来自互联网
• The lower the numbers go, the trickier the problems get. 武器的数量越低，问题就越复杂。 来自互联网

22 eschew   

v.避开，戒绝

参考例句：

• Eschew fattening foods if you want to lose weight.你如想减肥，就不要吃致肥的食物。
• Good kid should eschew bad company.好孩子应避免交坏朋友。

23 insularity   

n.心胸狭窄；孤立；偏狭；岛国根性

参考例句：

• But at least they have started to break out of their old insularity.但是他们至少已经开始打破过去孤立保守的心态。
• It was a typical case of British chauvinism and insularity.这是典型的英国沙文主义和偏狭心理的事例。

24 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。