经济学人:财政乘数 责任该到哪里为止?

 　　Economics brief: Fiscal¹ multipliers

　　经济概要：财政乘数

　　Where does the buck² stop?

　　责任到哪里为止？

　　Fiscal stimulus³, an idea championed by John Maynard Keynes, has gone in and out of fashion.

　　由凯恩斯首倡的财政刺激思想经历了大起大落。

　　At the height of the euro crisis, with government-bond yields soaring in several southern European countries and defaults looming⁴, the European Central Bank and the healthier members of the currency club fended⁵ off disaster by offering bail-outs.

　　在欧元危机高峰时，鉴于多个南欧国家的政府债券收益率疯涨，违约近在眼前，欧洲央行和这个货币俱乐部中较为健康的几个成员国通过提供救助的方式抵御了灾难。

　　But these came with conditions, most notably⁶ strict fiscal discipline, intended to put government finances back on a sustainable footing.

　　但是，这些救助是有条件的，最引人注目的是严格的财政纪律，意在让政府财政回归一种可持续的基础。

　　Some economists⁸ argued that painful budget cuts were an unfortunate necessity.

　　有的经济学家认为，痛苦的预算削减是一种不幸的必然。

　　Others said that the cuts might well prove counterproductive, by lowering growth and therefore government revenues, leaving the affected⁹ countries even poorer and more indebted.

　　有的则认为，预算削减极有可能被证明适得其反，因为它拉低了增长，进而减少了政府收入，使得受其影响的国家穷上加穷，债务越来越重。

　　In 2013 economists at the IMF rendered their verdict on these austerity programmes: they had done far more economic damage than had been initially¹⁰ predicted, including by the fund itself.

　　2013年，国际货币基金组织的经济学家拿出了他们对这些紧缩计划的看法：它们已经造成了远远高于最初预期——包括国际货币基金组织自己的最初预期——的经济破坏。

　　What had the IMF got wrong when it made its earlier, more sanguine¹¹ forecasts?

　　那么，国际货币基金组织做出其较早的、更加乐观的预期时错在哪里了呢？

　　It had dramatically underestimated the fiscal multiplier.

　　它大大低估了财政乘数。

　　The multiplier is a simple, powerful and hotly debated idea.

　　财政乘数是一种简单、有力且争论激烈的思想。

　　It is a critical element of Keynesian macroeconomics.

　　它是凯恩斯宏观经济学的一个重要组成部分。

　　Over the past 80 years the significance it has been accorded has fluctuated wildly.

　　在过去的80年中，它被赋予的重要性大起大落。

　　It was once seen as a matter of fundamental importance, then as a discredited¹² notion.

　　它一度被视为一件具有根本重要性的事情，之后，又被看成是一种信誉扫地的观念。

　　It is now back in vogue¹³ again.

　　如今，它再度风靡一时。

　　The idea of the multiplier emerged from the intense argument over how to respond to the Depression.

　　财政乘数的思想出自如何应对大萧条的激烈争论。

　　In the 1920s Britain had sunk into an economic slump¹⁴.

　　上世纪20年代，英国陷入了一场经济衰退。

　　The first world war had left prices higher and the pound weaker.

　　第一次世界大战让物价节节攀升，英镑日渐疲软。

　　The government was nonetheless determined¹⁵ to restore the pound to its pre-war value.

　　然而，政府仍然决心让英镑回到其战前的价值。

　　In doing so, it kept monetary¹⁶ policy too tight, initiating¹⁷ a spell of prolonged deflation and economic weakness.

　　在做这件事的过程中，英国政府把货币政策收得太紧，引发了一场旷日持久的通缩和经济疲软。

　　The economists of the day debated what might be done to improve conditions for suffering workers.

　　当时的经济学家曾就如何改善深受其苦的工人的状况进行过一番讨论。

　　Among the suggestions was a programme of public investment which, some thought, would put unemployed¹⁸ Britons to work.

　　在各种建议当中，其中就有一项有人认为会让失业的英国人去工作的公共投资计划。

　　The British government would countenance¹⁹ no such thing.

　　英国政府是不会赞成任何这种事情的。

　　It espoused²⁰ the conventional wisdom of the day—what is often called the “Treasury view”.

　　它站在了当时的传统智慧，也就是常说的“财政部观点”一边。

　　It believed that public spending, financed through borrowing, would not boost overall economic activity, because the supply of savings²¹ in the economy available for borrowing is fixed²².

　　它坚信，由于经济体中可用于举债的储蓄供给是固定的，透过举债资助的公共开支不会推动整体经济活动。

　　If the government commandeered capital to build new roads, for instance, it would simply be depriving private firms of the same amount of money.

　　例如，如果政府强制资本去建造新的道路，这只会抢走私人企业同等数量的钱。

　　Higher spending and employment in one part of the economy would come at the expense of lower spending and employment in another.

　　经济体某一部分的更高的开支和就业的到来，会以另一部分的更低的开支和就业为代价。

　　As the world slipped into depression, however, and Britain's economic crisis deepened, the voices questioning this view grew louder.

　　然而，随着世界滑入衰退，英国经济危机日渐加深，质疑这一观点的声音越来越大。

　　In 1931 Baron²³ Kahn, a British economist⁷, published a paper espousing²⁴ an alternative theory: that public spending would yield both the primary boost from the direct spending, but also “beneficial repercussions”.

　　1931年，英国经济学家卡恩男爵发表了一篇支持某种替代理论的论文：公共开支除了会产生来自直接开支的主要推动之外，还会带来“受益反应”。

　　If road-building, for instance, took workers off the dole²⁵ and led them to increase their own spending, he argued, then there might be a sustained rise in total employment as a result.

　　他指出，例如，如果建造道路让工人摆脱了失业救济，进而又导致他们增加自身花销，那么，其结果可能是一种总就业的持续上升。

　　Kahn's paper was in line with the thinking of John Maynard Keynes, the leading British economist of the day, who was working on what would become his masterpiece, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”.

　　卡恩的论文与当时正在撰写会成为其代表作的《就业、利息和货币通论》的著名英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的思考一脉相承。

　　In it, Keynes gave a much more complete account of how the multiplier might work, and how it might enable a government to drag a slumping²⁶ economy back to health.

　　《在通论》中，凯恩斯对财政乘数可能如何发挥作用以及它如何能让政府把处于下滑中的经济体回归健康给出了一个远为完整的描述。

　　Keynes was a singular character, and one of the great thinkers of the 20th century.

　　凯恩斯是一位非凡之人，是20世纪伟大思想家之一。

　　He looked every inch a patrician²⁷ figure, with his tweed suits and walrus²⁸ moustache.

　　从外表上看，他的花呢外套和海象式胡子无不表明他是一位达官贵人。

　　Yet he was also a free spirit by the standards of the day, associating with the artists and writers of the Bloomsbury Group, whose members included Virginia Woolf and E.M.Forster.

　　然而，根据当时的标准，他还是一位思想开明的人，与成员包括弗吉尼亚·伍尔夫和E·M·福斯特在内的布鲁姆斯伯里团体的作家和艺术家关系密切。

　　1.insurance industry 保险业

　　例句:The insurance industry has produced its own proposals for universal health care.

　　保险业提出了自己的全民医疗保健方案。

　　2.out of control 失控

　　例句:Fires were burning out of control in the center of the city

　　市中心的火势失去了控制。

　　3.turn over 移交

　　例句:The King may turn over some of his official posts to his son

　　国王可能会把他的某些公职交由儿子担任。

　　4.run down 撞倒；停止

　　例句:The government is cynically²⁹ running down Swe-den's welfare system

　　瑞典政府正自私自利地削减本国的福利。

1 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

2 buck   

n.雄鹿，雄兔；v.马离地跳跃

参考例句：

• The boy bent curiously to the skeleton of the buck.这个男孩好奇地弯下身去看鹿的骸骨。
• The female deer attracts the buck with high-pitched sounds.雌鹿以尖声吸引雄鹿。

3 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

4 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

5 fended   

v.独立生活，照料自己( fend的过去式和过去分词 )；挡开，避开

参考例句：

• He neatly fended off a jab at his chest. 他利落地挡开了当胸的一击。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I fended off his sword thrust with my spear. 他一刀砍来，我拿枪架住。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

10 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

11 sanguine   

adj.充满希望的，乐观的，血红色的

参考例句：

• He has a sanguine attitude to life.他对于人生有乐观的看法。
• He is not very sanguine about our chances of success.他对我们成功的机会不太乐观。

12 discredited   

不足信的，不名誉的

参考例句：

• The reactionary authorities are between two fires and have been discredited. 反动当局弄得进退维谷，不得人心。
• Her honour was discredited in the newspapers. 她的名声被报纸败坏了。

13 Vogue   

n.时髦，时尚；adj.流行的

参考例句：

• Flowery carpets became the vogue.花卉地毯变成了时髦货。
• Short hair came back into vogue about ten years ago.大约十年前短发又开始流行起来了。

14 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

15 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

16 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

17 initiating   

v.开始( initiate的现在分词 )；传授；发起；接纳新成员

参考例句：

• He is good at initiating projects but rarely follows through with anything. 他善于创建项目，但难得坚持完成。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Only the perchlorate shows marked sensitiveness and possibly initiating properties. 只有高氯酸盐表现有显著的感度和可能具有起爆性能。 来自辞典例句

18 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

19 countenance   

n.脸色，面容；面部表情；vt.支持，赞同

参考例句：

• At the sight of this photograph he changed his countenance.他一看见这张照片脸色就变了。
• I made a fierce countenance as if I would eat him alive.我脸色恶狠狠地，仿佛要把他活生生地吞下去。

20 espoused   

v.（决定）支持，拥护（目标、主张等）( espouse的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They espoused the notion of equal opportunity for all in education. 他们赞同在教育方面人人机会均等的观念。
• The ideas she espoused were incomprehensible to me. 她所支持的意见令我难以理解。 来自《简明英汉词典》

21 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

22 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

23 baron   

n.男爵；(商业界等)巨头，大王

参考例句：

• Henry Ford was an automobile baron.亨利·福特是一位汽车业巨头。
• The baron lived in a strong castle.男爵住在一座坚固的城堡中。

24 espousing   

v.（决定）支持，拥护（目标、主张等）( espouse的现在分词 )

参考例句：

25 dole   

n.救济，（失业）救济金；vt.（out）发放，发给

参考例句：

• It's not easy living on the dole.靠领取失业救济金生活并不容易。
• Many families are living on the dole since the strike.罢工以来，许多家庭靠失业救济金度日。

26 slumping   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的现在分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Hong Kong's slumping economy also caused a rise in bankruptcy applications. 香港经济低迷，破产申请个案随之上升。
• And as with slumping, over-arching can also be a simple postural habit. 就像弯腰驼背，过度挺直也可能只是一种习惯性姿势。

27 patrician   

adj.贵族的，显贵的；n.贵族；有教养的人；罗马帝国的地方官

参考例句：

• The old patrician was buried in the family vault.这位老贵族埋在家族的墓地里。
• Its patrician dignity was a picturesque sham.它的贵族的尊严只是一套华丽的伪装。

28 walrus   

n.海象

参考例句：

• He is the queer old duck with the knee-length gaiters and walrus mustache.他穿着高及膝盖的皮护腿，留着海象般的八字胡，真是个古怪的老家伙。
• He seemed hardly to notice the big walrus.他几乎没有注意到那只大海象。

29 cynically   

adv.爱嘲笑地，冷笑地

参考例句：

• "Holding down the receiver,'said Daisy cynically. “挂上话筒在讲。”黛西冷嘲热讽地说。 来自英汉文学 - 盖茨比
• The Democrats sensibly (if cynically) set about closing the God gap. 民主党在明智（有些讽刺）的减少宗教引起的问题。 来自互联网