经济学人:淡水派与咸水派之争 凯恩斯经济学的致命缺陷

 　　They should therefore save income earned as a result of stimulus¹ in order to have it on hand for when the bill came due.

　　因而，为了在账单到期时手里有钱，他们应当把作为刺激结果而挣到的收入存起来。

　　The multiplier on government spending might in fact be close to zero, as each extra dollar is almost entirely² offset³ by increased private saving.

　　由于每一额外的一美元几乎完全被增长了的私人储蓄所抵消，政府开支乘数实际上可能接近于零。

　　The economists⁴ behind many of these criticisms clustered in colleges in the Midwest of America, most notably⁵ the University of Chicago.

　　当时，许多这些批评背后的经济学家都聚集在美国中西部的大学中，最突出的是芝加哥大学。

　　Because of their proximity⁶ to America's Great Lakes, their approach to macroeconomics came to be known as the “freshwater” school.

　　由于临近五大湖，他们的宏观经济学策略，后来以“淡水”派而闻名。

　　They argued that macroeconomic models had to begin with equations that described how rational individuals made decisions.

　　他们指出，宏观经济学模型必需从描述理性个人如何决策的等式入手。

　　The economic experience of the 1970s seemed to bear out their criticisms of Keynes: governments sought to boost slow-growing economies with fiscal⁷ and monetary⁸ stimulus, only to find that inflation and interest rates rose even as unemployment remained high.

　　上世纪70年代的经济经历似乎证实了他们对凯恩斯的批评：试图以财政和货币刺激推动增长缓慢的经济体的政府发现，通胀和利率甚至在失业仍就居高不下时也上升了。

　　Freshwater economists declared victory.

　　淡水派经济学家宣布了胜利。

　　In an article published in 1979 and entitled “After Keynesian Economics”, Robert Lucas and Tom Sargent, both eventual⁹ Nobel-prize winners, wrote that the flaws in Keynesian economic models were “fatal”.

　　在1979年发表的一篇名为《凯恩斯主义经济学之后》的文章中，后来双双成为诺奖得主的罗伯特·卢卡斯和汤姆·萨金特写道，凯恩斯经济学模型中的缺陷是“致命的”。

　　Keynesian macroeconomic models were “of no value in guiding policy”.

　　凯恩斯宏观经济学模型“在指导政策方面毫无价值”。

　　These attacks, in turn, prompted the emergence¹⁰ of “New Keynesian” economists, who borrowed elements of the freshwater approach while retaining the belief that recessions were market failures that could be fixed¹¹ through government intervention¹².

　　这些攻击，反过来又促成了在借鉴淡水派策略的同时依旧坚信衰退是可能透过政府干预而得到修正的市场失败的“新凯恩斯主义”经济学家的出现。

　　Because most of them were based at universities on America's coasts, they were dubbed¹³ “saltwater” economists.

　　由于他们大都出自美国大西洋沿岸的大学，因而被称为“咸水”派。

　　The most prominent included Stanley Fischer, now the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve; Larry Summers, a former treasury¹⁴ secretary; and Greg Mankiw, head of George W.Bush's Council of Economic Advisers¹⁵.

　　最著名的有现任美联储副主席斯坦利·费舍尔，前财长拉里·萨默斯和小布什经济顾问委员会主席格雷格·曼昆。

　　In their models fiscal policy was all but neutered.

　　在他们的模型中，财政政策几乎都遭到了阉割。

　　Instead, they argued that central banks could and should do the heavy lifting of economic management: exercising a deft¹⁶ control that ought to cancel out the effects of government spending—and squash the multiplier.

　　相反，他们指出，央行能够而且应当挑起经济治理的重任：实施一种应该能够消除政府开支影响——进而挤压乘数——的灵巧调控。

　　Yet in Japan since the 1990s, and in most of the rich world since the recession that followed the global financial crisis, cutting interest rates to zero has proved inadequate¹⁷ to revive flagging economies.

　　然而，自上世纪90年代以来，先是在日本，后来在富裕世界的大部分国家中，由于随着全球金融危机而来的衰退，将利率降至零已经被证明不适合于重振主要经济体。

　　Many governments turned instead to fiscal stimulus to get their economies going.

　　相反，许多政府转向了财政刺激，以推动经济体前行。

　　In America the administration of Barack Obama succeeded in securing a stimulus package worth over $800 billion.

　　在美国，贝拉克·奥巴马政府成功地确保了价值8000多亿美元的一揽子刺激计划。

　　As a new debate over multipliers flared¹⁸, freshwater types stood their ground.

　　随着一场新的关于乘数争论的升温，淡水派坚守了它们的阵地。

　　John Cochrane of the University of Chicago said of Keynesian ideas in 2009: “It's not part of what anybody has taught graduate students since the 1960s.

　　2009年，芝加哥大学的约翰.柯克兰在论及凯恩斯主义的思想时表示：“它们不是自上世纪60年代以来教给毕业生的那部分内容。

　　They are fairy tales that have been proved false.

　　它们是已经被证伪的神话故事。

　　It is very comforting in times of stress to go back to the fairy tales we heard as children, but it doesn't make them less false.”

　　在艰难时期回归我们在孩提时代听到的神话故事是非常令人欣慰的。但是，这并不能减少它们的谬误。”

　　The practical experience of the recession gave economists plenty to study, however.

　　然而，衰退的实践经历却给了经济学家很多值得研究的东西。

　　Scores of papers have been published since 2008 attempting to estimate fiscal multipliers.

　　自2008年以来，已经有数十篇试图测算财政乘数的论文出版。

　　Most suggest that, with interest rates close to zero, fiscal stimulus carries a multiplier of at least one.

　　其中大多数论文认为，由于利率接近零，财政刺激相当于至少为1的乘数。

　　The IMF, for instance, concluded that the (harmful) multiplier for fiscal contractions¹⁹ was often 1.5 or more.

　　例如，国际货币基金组织认为，对财政收缩（有害的）乘数经常大于等于1.5。

　　Even as many policymakers remain committed to fiscal consolidation²⁰, plenty of economists now argue that insufficient²¹ fiscal stimulus has been among the biggest failures of the post-crisis era.

　　即便许多决策者依旧以财政巩固为己任，但是，如今，相当多的经济学家认为，欠充分的财政刺激是后危机时代最大的失误之一。

　　Mr Summers and Antonio Fatas suggest, for example, that austerity has substantially reduced growth, leading to levels of public debt that are higher than they would have been had enthusiastic stimulus been used to revive growth.

　　例如，萨默斯和安东尼奥·法塔斯指出，紧缩极大地拉低了增长，导致了高于在令人振奋的刺激如果被用于重振增长时本应有的公共债务水平。

　　Decades after its conception, Keynes's multiplier remains²² as relevant, and as controversial, as ever.

　　在这个概念问世几十年后，凯恩斯的乘数依旧像以前那样意义重大，像以前那样充满争议。

　　1.in order to 为了

　　例句:We're not ready to disarm²³ ourselves in order to make it easier for them to kill us.

　　我们可不准备放下武器，好让他们更轻易地干掉我们。

　　2.as ever 一直；依旧

　　例句:He was by himself, alone, as ever.

　　他独自一人，一如往常。

　　3.plenty of 大量；许多

　　例句:I had plenty of space to write and sew.

　　我有足够的空间进行写作和缝纫。

　　4.financial crisis 经济危机

　　例句:This financial crisis had a much greater impact on Main Street.

　　这次金融危机对老百姓的影响更为深远。

1 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

2 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

3 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

6 proximity   

n.接近，邻近

参考例句：

• Marriages in proximity of blood are forbidden by the law.法律规定禁止近亲结婚。
• Their house is in close proximity to ours.他们的房子很接近我们的。

7 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

8 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

9 eventual   

adj.最后的，结局的，最终的

参考例句：

• Several schools face eventual closure.几所学校面临最终关闭。
• Both parties expressed optimism about an eventual solution.双方对问题的最终解决都表示乐观。

10 emergence   

n.浮现，显现，出现，（植物）突出体

参考例句：

• The last decade saw the emergence of a dynamic economy.最近10年见证了经济增长的姿态。
• Language emerges and develops with the emergence and development of society.语言是随着社会的产生而产生，随着社会的发展而发展的。

11 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

12 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

13 dubbed   

v.给…起绰号( dub的过去式和过去分词 )；把…称为；配音；复制

参考例句：

• Mathematics was once dubbed the handmaiden of the sciences. 数学曾一度被视为各门科学的基础。
• Is the movie dubbed or does it have subtitles? 这部电影是配音的还是打字幕的？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

15 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

16 deft   

adj.灵巧的，熟练的（a deft hand 能手）

参考例句：

• The pianist has deft fingers.钢琴家有灵巧的双手。
• This bird,sharp of eye and deft of beak,can accurately peck the flying insects in the air.这只鸟眼疾嘴快，能准确地把空中的飞虫啄住。

17 inadequate   

adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的

参考例句：

• The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
• She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。

18 Flared   

adj. 端部张开的, 爆发的, 加宽的, 漏斗式的 动词flare的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The match flared and went out. 火柴闪亮了一下就熄了。
• The fire flared up when we thought it was out. 我们以为火已经熄灭，但它突然又燃烧起来。

19 contractions   

n.收缩( contraction的名词复数 )；缩减；缩略词；（分娩时）子宫收缩

参考例句：

• Contractions are much more common in speech than in writing. 缩略词在口语里比在书写中常见得多。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Muscle contractions are powered by the chemical adenosine triphosphate(ATP ). 肌肉收缩是由化学物质三磷酸腺苷(ATP)提供动力的。 来自辞典例句

20 consolidation   

n.合并,巩固

参考例句：

• The denser population necessitates closer consolidation both for internal and external action. 住得日益稠密的居民，对内和对外都不得不更紧密地团结起来。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• The state ensures the consolidation and growth of the state economy. 国家保障国营经济的巩固和发展。 来自汉英非文学 - 中国宪法

21 insufficient   

adj.(for，of)不足的，不够的

参考例句：

• There was insufficient evidence to convict him.没有足够证据给他定罪。
• In their day scientific knowledge was insufficient to settle the matter.在他们的时代，科学知识还不能足以解决这些问题。

22 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

23 disarm   

v.解除武装，回复平常的编制，缓和

参考例句：

• The world has waited 12 years for Iraq to disarm. 全世界等待伊拉克解除武装已有12年之久。
• He has rejected every peaceful opportunity offered to him to disarm.他已经拒绝了所有能和平缴械的机会。