经济学人:川普当选总统 国际经济出现的乱象(上)

 　　Finance and economics: The world economy: Our election, your problem

　　财经：世界经济：我们的选举，你们的问题

　　A Trump¹ presidency² will be bad for the world economy and worse for places outside America.

　　对于世界经济来说，特朗普总统任期将是有害的；对于美国之外的地方而言，危害就更大了。

　　It is not clear precisely³ how Donald Trump will govern, the extent to which he will carry out some of his scarier promises on trade and immigration, and who will be his economics top brass⁴ at the Treasury⁵ and in the White House.

　　唐纳德·特朗普将如何治国理政？他将把他那些有关贸易和移民的更加可怕的承诺贯彻到何种程度？谁将是他在财政部和白宫的经济大员？准确地说，这些还不明朗。

　　But a decent first guess is that President Trump will be bad for the world economy in aggregate⁶; and a second is that his actions are likely to do more harm, in the short term at least, to economies outside America.

　　但是，一种像样的初步猜想是：总体而言，特朗普总统对于世界经济将是有害的；接下来的猜想是：他的举措，至少在短期内，有可能对美国之外的经济体造成更多的伤害。

　　When America has in the past stepped aside from its role at the centre of the global economic system, the damage has spread well beyond its borders.

　　当美国以前让出其在全球经济体系中心的角色时，危害远远超出了它的国界。

　　In 1971, when Richard Nixon ended the post-war system of fixed⁷ exchange-rates that had America at its centre, his Treasury secretary, John Connally, told European leaders, “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.”

　　1971年，当理查德·尼克松终结了美国位居其中心的战后固定汇率体系时，他的财政部长约翰·康纳利曾对欧洲领导人说：“美元是我们的货币，却是你们的问题。”

　　This election result, to paraphrase⁸ Connally, belongs to America but is potentially a bigger economic problem for everyone else.

　　把康纳利的话引申一下就是，这次的选举结果属于美国，但是，对其他所有人来说，很可能是一个更大的经济问题。

　　The scale and nature of that problem depend on the interplay of the two main elements of Mr Trump's economic populism.

　　这个问题的大小和性质取决于特朗普经济民粹主义的两大主要元素的相互作用。

　　The first is action to boost aggregate demand.

　　首先是提针总需求的举措。

　　Mr Trump favours tax cuts and extra public spending on infrastructure⁹.

　　特朗普倾看中的是减税和额外的基础设施公共开支。

　　The second element is trade protectionism.

　　第二个元素是贸易保护主义。

　　He has pledged to slap tariffs¹⁰ on Chinese imports and to renegotiate the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada.

　　他已经承诺要对中国进口商品加征关税并与墨西哥和加拿大重新就北美自由贸易协定进行谈判。

　　To the extent that he leans more on the first element and less on the second, the immediate¹¹ damage to America's economy will be limited.

　　就他较多地依赖第一个元素且较少地依赖第二个元素来说，对于美国经济的直接破坏将是有限的。

　　But even in that event, the net effect of a Trump presidency on economies outside America is still likely to be harmful.

　　但是，即便如此，特朗普总统任期对于美国之外的经济体的净影响依旧可能是极有害的。

　　To understand why, go back to the subject of Connally's gibe¹²: the dollar.

　　要想明白其中的道理，回头看看康纳利风凉话的主角——美元。

　　As it became clear that Mr Trump would win the election, the greenback fell against rich-country currencies, such as the euro, yen¹³, Swiss franc and pound, as investors¹⁴ sought a haven¹⁵ from policy uncertainty¹⁶ in America.

　　就在特朗普会赢得大选变得明朗起来的时候，由于投资者想要寻求一处远离美国政策不确定性的避风港，美元对欧元、日元、瑞士法郎和英镑等富裕国家的货币一度大幅下跌。

　　An index of its value against major currencies dropped by 2% in early trading on November 9th.

　　在11月9日的早盘交易中，美元对主要货币的币值指数下跌了2%。

　　Within hours it had regained¹⁷ almost all the lost ground, as investors pieced together a positive story for the dollar, based on the prospects¹⁸ of a boost to demand in America's economy and an inflow of capital from abroad.

　　随着投资者基于对美国经济需求提振和资本从海外流入的前景而为美元拼凑出一个正面的故事，它在几个小时内就收复了几乎所有的失地。

　　A deal between Mr Trump and Congress to cut corporate¹⁹ taxes, goes the logic²⁰, would spur flush American companies to repatriate²¹ retained profits held offshore²².

　　这种逻辑认为，特朗普与国会间的给企业减税的协议会刺激大批美国公司遣返离岸持有的留存收益。

　　It would also allow them to increase capital spending in America, because they would have more ready cash; and consequent profits would be taxed more lightly.

　　这份协议还会听任这些公司提高在美国的资本开支，因为它们会有更多的现款；同时，随之而来的利润会被更轻地征税。

　　1.carry out 实施

　　例句:I myself will firmly carry out this plan.

　　我本人将坚决执行这个计划。

　　2.tax cut 减税

　　例句:The tax cut issue has caused dissension among administration officials.

　　减税问题已经在政府官员中引起了争议。

　　3.trade protectionism 贸易保护主义

　　例句:We abandoned trade protectionism and encouraged foreign investment.

　　我们放弃了贸易保护主义政策，开始鼓励外商投资。

　　4.go back to 回去；返回

　　例句:I now look forward to going back to work as soon as possible

　　我现在渴望尽早回到工作岗位。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

3 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

4 brass   

n.黄铜；黄铜器，铜管乐器

参考例句：

• Many of the workers play in the factory's brass band.许多工人都在工厂铜管乐队中演奏。
• Brass is formed by the fusion of copper and zinc.黄铜是通过铜和锌的熔合而成的。

5 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

6 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

7 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

8 paraphrase   

vt.将…释义，改写；n.释义，意义

参考例句：

• You may read the prose paraphrase of this poem.你可以看一下这首诗的散文释义。
• Paraphrase the following sentences or parts of sentences using your own words.用你自己的话解释下面的句子或句子的一部分。

9 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

10 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

11 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

12 gibe   

n.讥笑；嘲弄

参考例句：

• I felt sure he was seeking for some gibe. 我敢说他正在寻找一句什么挖苦话。
• It's impolite to gibe at a foreign student's English. 嘲笑外国学生的英语是不礼貌的。

13 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

14 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

15 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。

16 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

17 regained   

复得( regain的过去式和过去分词 )； 赢回； 重回； 复至某地

参考例句：

• The majority of the people in the world have regained their liberty. 世界上大多数人已重获自由。
• She hesitated briefly but quickly regained her poise. 她犹豫片刻，但很快恢复了镇静。

18 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

19 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

20 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

21 repatriate   

v.遣返；返回；n.被遣返回国者

参考例句：

• The government safely repatriates victims.政府安全遣返了受害者。
• In this part,you need to formulate in detail repatriate the plan.在这一部分，你需要制定详细的归国计划。

22 offshore   

adj.海面的，吹向海面的；adv.向海面

参考例句：

• A big program of oil exploration has begun offshore.一个大规模的石油勘探计划正在近海展开。
• A gentle current carried them slowly offshore.和缓的潮流慢慢地把他们带离了海岸。