经济学人:世界经济展望 希望之春(2)

 　　The IMF's model did not allow for an Iraqi invasion. 国际货币基金组织的模型并未考虑到伊拉克的入侵。

　　But other errors are less easily explained: between 1990 and 2007, the IMF's spring forecasts underestimated global growth in 13 of the 18 years,  但是其他一些错误却难以解释：1990年至2007年这18年之间，有13年国际货币基金组织的春季预测低估了全球增长，

　　in large part because it failed to foresee the spectacular rise of China. 很大一部分是因为它未能预见中国惊人的崛起。

　　Since the financial crisis, however, the IMF has had to revise down its forecasts over time every year since 2010. 然而自经济危机一来，从2010年起，国际货币基金组织不得不渐渐每年修改其预测。

　　The fund's spring forecasts for the coming year have turned out to be over-optimistic in the past three years. 在过去三年，该组织对来年经济的春季预测结果是过于乐观。

　　Christine Lagarde, the IMF's boss, recently conceded that economic growth in the past six years has been “disappointing”, but held firm in her belief that the world economy was turning. 国际货币基金组织的总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德最近承认过去六年经济增长一直“差强人意”，但是坚持她的信念，相信世界经济正在回转。

　　Hence the positive revision to its global GDP forecast—albeit by just a tenth of a percentage point. 因此，对全球GDP预测的乐观看法—尽管只有百分之十分之一。

　　The global economy may still falter¹ for a number of reasons. 全球经济可能仍然会因为一些原因停止不前。

　　Ms Lagarde worries the rich world will suffer “self-inflicted wounds” from poor policy choices, notably² on trade. 拉加德担心发达国家将从不合理的政策选择中遭受“自我伤害”，特别是在贸易方面。

　　Political uncertainty³ abounds⁴. 政治不确定性比比皆是。

　　Just hours before the IMF released the WEO came the surprising news of an imminent⁵ election in Britain. 正在国际货币基金组织发布世界经济展望后几个小时，出现了英国出人意料选举的惊人消息。

　　The known unknowns hardly help, either. 已知的未知数也没有帮助。

　　Mr Trump's fiscal⁶ policies, for example, are far from firm plans—Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's chief economist⁷, calls them “a work in progress”. 例如，特朗普的财政政策根本不是稳定的计划--国际货币基金组织的首席经济学家莫里斯·奥布斯特菲尔德把这些政策称为“在发展中的工作”。

1 falter   

vi.(嗓音)颤抖，结巴地说；犹豫；蹒跚

参考例句：

• His voice began to falter.他的声音开始发颤。
• As he neared the house his steps faltered.当他走近房子时，脚步迟疑了起来。

2 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

3 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

4 abounds   

v.大量存在，充满，富于( abound的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The place abounds with fruit, especially pears and peaches. 此地盛产水果，尤以梨桃著称。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• This country abounds with fruit. 这个国家盛产水果。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

5 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。