经济学人:贸易战争:谁是最后的赢家(3)

 　　Officials could opt¹ to abandon their tightening² stance in order to counteract³ the trade turmoil⁴. But that might erase⁵ the gains from the deleveraging. 官方可以选择放弃他们紧缩的立场以求缓和贸易混乱。但这么做会抹去来自于减债的利益。

　　This explains their restraint so far. At a meeting of the Politburo on July 31st, 这也解释了他们到目前为止所表现出的克制。7月31日，在一场会议上，

　　China's leaders noted⁶ that it was a priority to support growth amid the "clear change" in the external environment, 中国领导者注意到，在外部环境的“清晰变化”中支持增长才是首要任务，

　　but also pledged to press on with their efforts to control debt. Investors⁷ who had hoped for more easing were disappointed. 但是他们也承诺将加紧控制债务。寄希望于宽松政策的投资者们要失望了。

　　So there is cause for concern about China's growth outlook. But markets may be unduly⁸ pessimistic. 因此，对中国经济增长前景的担忧是有原因的。但是市场或许过度悲观了。

　　One conclusion from the past few weeks is that policymakers now accept that the trade war is real, and are starting to cushion the economy. 从过去几周得出的结论是现在决策者承认贸易战是真实存在的，并且他们正在开始缓和经济的冲击。

　　The boost to exports from the falling yuan, down about 6% on a trade-weighted basis since mid-June, 人民币贬值促进了出口（自6月中旬，在贸易加权基础上下降6%）

　　should be "roughly proportionate" to the blow from the first $50bn of American tariffs⁹ and some of the next $200bn, 这应该与美国第一次的500亿商品关税以及接下来的2000美元商品关税勉强成比，

　　says Andrew Tilton, the chief Asia economist¹⁰ at Goldman Sachs. 高盛投资公司，亚洲首席经济学家安德鲁·提顿说道。

　　At the margins¹¹, he adds, China is shifting to a more active fiscal¹² policy. 他还说，中国正在转向更加积极的财政政策。

　　Officials have made it easier for cities to get funding for infrastructure¹³ projects. 由于官方的政策，各城市可以更加容易地获得基础设施项目资金。

　　One government adviser¹⁴ says there is discussion of a bigger stimulus¹⁵, likely to be focused on promoting consumption rather than investment. 一位政府顾问表示他们对更大规模的经济刺激计划进行了讨论，他们可能会专注于促进消费而非投资。

　　The economic backdrop to the trade war could also change over the next year. 在未来一年中，贸易战争的经济背景可能也会改变。

　　As China tiptoes towards easing, its credit growth should pick up. 中国小心翼翼寻求宽松政策，其债务增长应该有所改善。

　　Meanwhile, America may be near the top of its growth cycle, with gains from last year's tax cut set to dissipate. 与此同时，美国或许靠近其生长周期的巅峰，其去年减税收益将被浪费。

　　Louis Kuijs of Oxford¹⁶ Economics, a research firm, says the divergence¹⁷ in their stock markets might reflect overconfidence in America 研究公司牛津经济研究院的高路易表示，股票市场的分歧或许反映出了美国的过度自信

　　and an evaporation¹⁸ of confidence in China. "Both reactions seem exaggerated," he says. 和中国的信心蒸发。“两种反应都被夸大了，”他说。

　　With no resolution to the trade war in sight, there will be time enough to test this proposition. 由于没有应对贸易战争的最终方案，要测试这个命题，我们有的是时间。

1 opt   

vi.选择，决定做某事

参考例句：

• They opt for more holiday instead of more pay.他们选择了延长假期而不是增加工资。
• Will individual schools be given the right to opt out of the local school authority?各个学校可能有权选择退出地方教育局吗？

2 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

3 counteract   

vt.对…起反作用，对抗，抵消

参考例句：

• The doctor gave him some medicine to counteract the effect of the poison.医生给他些药解毒。
• Our work calls for mutual support.We shouldn't counteract each other's efforts.工作要互相支持，不要互相拆台。

4 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

5 erase   

v.擦掉；消除某事物的痕迹

参考例句：

• He tried to erase the idea from his mind.他试图从头脑中抹掉这个想法。
• Please erase my name from the list.请把我的名字从名单上擦去。

6 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 unduly   

adv.过度地，不适当地

参考例句：

• He did not sound unduly worried at the prospect.他的口气听上去对前景并不十分担忧。
• He argued that the law was unduly restrictive.他辩称法律的约束性有些过分了。

9 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

10 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

11 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

12 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

13 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

14 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

15 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

16 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。

17 divergence   

n.分歧，岔开

参考例句：

• There is no sure cure for this transatlantic divergence.没有什么灵丹妙药可以消除大西洋两岸的分歧。
• In short,it was an age full of conflicts and divergence of values.总之，这一时期是矛盾与价值观分歧的时期。

18 evaporation   

n.蒸发，消失

参考例句：

• Be careful not to lose too much liquid by evaporation.小心不要因蒸发失去太多水分。
• Our bodies can sweat,thereby losing heat by evaporation.我们的身体能出汗，由此可以蒸发散热。