PBS高端访谈:消费者信心指数升高

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: With less than a week left before the first presidential debate, both candidates remained focused today on persuading voters they can boost the economy.

　　But a key question at the heart of it all, is the economy slowing, stalling, or perhaps even gaining strength in some ways? New data are sending conflicting signs.

　　Republican presidential nominee¹ Mitt² Romney campaigned today at a military academy in Pennsylvania. Romney promised better jobs for young people like the cadets sitting behind him and a better future for the entire country.

　　MITT ROMNEY (R): We're in a very different road than what I think the people of the world expected for the United States of America. And if I'm elected president of this country, I will get us back on a road of growth and prosperity and strength.

　　(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Today, at a campaign event in Washington, President Obama shared a message of what he called economic patriotism³ tied to a strong middle class.

　　PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: But our problems can be solved. Our challenges can be met. We have still got the workers in the world, the best universities, the best scientists, the best—we got the best stuff.

　　(LAUGHTER)

　　BARACK OBAMA: We just got to bring it together.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Consumer confidence is higher of late, and the president may be getting a boost from voter attitudes.

　　An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out last week found 42 percent of Americans think the economy will improve in the next year. That's six points higher than a month ago; 18 percent say the economy will worsen, and almost a third expect it to stay the same.

　　The Obama campaign is also pointing to some revised job numbers to make its case. The U.S. Bureau of Labor⁴ Statistics said yesterday there were nearly 400,000 more jobs created in the previous year that ended in March. That would mean that there are a higher number of jobs than when President Obama took office.

　　But the U.S. still has four million fewer jobs since before the collapse⁵ of the financial sector⁶. There's other sobering data as well, showing a still sluggish⁷ recovery. The Commerce Department revised its estimate of second-quarter economic growth down yesterday from 1.7 percent.

　　Mitt Romney seized on the change in Springfield, Va.

　　MITT ROMNEY: We are at 1.3 percent. This is—this is unacceptable.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Other economic indicators⁸ also paint a mixed picture.

　　The stock market itself, while down today, has been climbing in recent weeks, to its highest levels in nearly five years.

　　Today, the Dow Jones industrial average lost almost 49 points after a weak manufacturing report and worries over Europe, to close just over 13,437.

　　And the housing market may be stabilizing⁹. A key index showed home prices rose in July to the highest level in almost two years, pointing to a recovery there.

　　Consumer spending was also up last month, but it was largely to pay for higher gasoline prices.

　　For a closer look at all this with two people who follow these things closely, we turn to Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University, and co-author of "This Time, It's Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly¹¹."

　　And Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, a global investment management firm, one of world's largest investors¹².

　　Gentlemen, thank you, to both of you, for being with us.

　　Mohamed El-Erian, let me start with you. There is so much information coming in, but it's not all pointing in the same direction. How do you see the strength of the economy?

　　MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, PIMCO: So, Judy, you're right. It's mixed information. If you were to bring it all together, we believe it points to a really sluggish economy.

　　By that, we mean growth of 1 percent. And there are both external and internal reasons for that. Externally, the headwinds are considerable. China is slowing. Europe is still in a debt crisis.

　　Internally, we are still dealing¹³ with the legacy¹⁴ of the financial crisis. We have had basically no policy-making out of Congress now for a long time.

　　And to make things even worse, the healthy parts of the economy, and there are quite a few, the healthy parts are not engaging because they're waiting to see how the fiscal¹⁵ cliff and other things are going to work out, so sluggish economy with the risk of stalled speed.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Ken¹⁰ Rogoff, is sluggish the main word you would use?

　　KENNETH ROGOFF, Harvard University: I think Mohamed El-Erian gave a pretty good description of what's going on.

　　I do think next year might look a little better. But I don't think we're going to be having fast growth for a very long time. The uncertainty¹⁶ around the world, in Europe, in the United States, in China is one thing.

　　The huge debt legacy from the financial crisis is another and the growing government debt.

　　That said, I mean, I wouldn't underestimate the upside, with the U.S. being such a creative economy. For example, energy prices have fallen a lot. And there are some other things you can point to on the upside.

　　But, so far, businesses have been very reluctant to invest heavily, very reluctant to hire heavily.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Mohamed El-Erian, what do you see—when you look at all this data coming in, what is most important to you?

　　MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN: A few things, first, the employment picture, and not just whether we're creating jobs or not—that's important—but also what's happening to those who remain unemployed¹⁷.

　　And that is a pretty worrisome picture. That's why I call it a crisis, because long-term unemployment is really high and youth unemployment is really high. And these are longer-term issues that we need to deal with. So the employment picture is very important.

　　Second, clarity for businesses. Today, no—and do they have the confidence to invest? There is a ton of money, Judy, on the sideline, a ton of money. And if we can engage that money into the system, it will be great.

　　And then, third, as Ken rightly said, the global economy. We are facing severe headwinds. So a number of things to look at, and, as President Obama said in the report, if we manage to get—bring things together, this economy can sprint¹⁸. But it requires quite a bit of political work to bring things together.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: We will pick up on that, Ken Rogoff. What would it take? And I'm curious about what you see that makes you think things could get better next year.

　　KENNETH ROGOFF: Well, this is just a very creative economy. And it's easier, especially for us economists¹⁹, to see what can go wrong than to think of these out-of-the-box things, technology, the way globalization works, that can go right.

　　Certainly, though, there is still—the housing is a problem. It's been stabilizing. I think that's been one of the good things, but there are still a lot of mortgages underwater. Consumer confidence is up, but I wouldn't count on it being so good that it's going to be getting us to 4 percent growth, to where we're feeling really good.

　　What I would like to see? Well, first of all, I would like to see tax reform in a way that keeps rates reasonable—I don't know if they can be lowered—and gets rid of deductions²⁰.

　　I would like to see spending on infrastructure²¹ that really is going to help us grow. I would like to see improvements in education.

　　Policy has been stalled for an extended period and a changing world. And we need to catch up. We have to prepare not just for having next year be good, but the next 10 years, the next 20 years.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Mohamed El-Erian, you talked a—you spoke²² a minute ago about the money that's sitting on the sidelines. And I hear Ken Rogoff referring to that, too.

　　What is it going to take that shake that loose, to make people feel more confident, to make business owners feel that it's a good thing to invest?

　　MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN: It's going to take what Ken said. And, critically, it's about a number of items that have to be addressed simultaneously²³.

　　You know, we like this notion maybe there's a shortcut²⁴, maybe there is a killer²⁵ app, maybe there is this one thing. Well, there isn't.

　　It's taken us years to get into this mess. It's going to take us years to get out.

　　And we only get out through simultaneous progress on a number of areas. So, Ken spoke to fiscal reform. He spoke to infrastructure. He spoke to education.

　　I would add labor retraining and retooling²⁶. And I would also add fixing the credit pipes of this economy. So it's a long list. It requires simultaneous progress. And the longer we wait, Judy, the harder it gets.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And to end on a negative question, I guess, Ken Rogoff, what would prevent all of those things from happening?

　　KENNETH ROGOFF: Boy. Well, gridlock in Washington.

　　We could have no budget still in January. That's not going to be good for investment.

　　Europe has temporarily stabilized²⁷, but it looks pretty shaky if you are standing²⁸ in Spain or Greece. The Chinese economy is not only slowing, it's in a political transition that no one knows how it's going to play out. The Middle East.

　　Like I said, Judy, there are lots of things we can think of that can go wrong. But I do think there is a balance because it is a very creative economy. There are also things that can go right.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So, just finally to both of you, Mohamed El-Erian, as you put all this together, and you look at the beginning of 2013, 2014, what do you see?

　　MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN: So, the first thing is, I tell the politicians, please remove the fiscal cliff, because if the fiscal cliff occurs, and we get 4 percent of GDP disorderly cuts in spending and then across-the-board increase in taxes, the U.S. will go into recession.

　　So, the first thing is, do no harm.

　　Second is, if we can get over that, I see an economy gradually picking up momentum²⁹. It's not going to be great. We're going to—we're going to create jobs, not enough to really lower the unemployment issue. And, hopefully, we're going to start dealing with these longer-term issues.

　　So, like Ken, the thing I find most frustrating³⁰, Judy, is this is not a complicated issue. We can handle this. We can unleash³¹ the innovation, the entrepreneurship, the cash that is on the sideline. But it requires a political will and political coordination³².

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Ken Rogoff, quick last word.

　　KENNETH ROGOFF: Well, I mean, I think that the thing that confuses people is, we're not going to go off the fiscal cliff, but what direction are we going to go?

　　There's such different visions coming from the Republicans and the Democrats³³. Frankly³⁴, I think if either were to win decisively, it would be better off than having no policy. But we don't know what direction we're going. I think that is really what the issue is.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, on that question mark note, we will end it.

　　Ken Rogoff, Mohamed El-Erian, we thank you both.

　　KENNETH ROGOFF: Thank you.

1 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

2 mitt   

n.棒球手套，拳击手套，无指手套；vt.铐住，握手

参考例句：

• I gave him a baseball mitt for his birthday.为祝贺他的生日，我送给他一只棒球手套。
• Tom squeezed a mitt and a glove into the bag.汤姆把棒球手套和手套都塞进袋子里。

3 patriotism   

n.爱国精神，爱国心，爱国主义

参考例句：

• His new book is a demonstration of his patriotism.他写的新书是他的爱国精神的证明。
• They obtained money under the false pretenses of patriotism.他们以虚伪的爱国主义为借口获得金钱。

4 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

5 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

6 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

7 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

8 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

9 stabilizing   

n.稳定化处理[退火]v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The disulfide bridges might then be viewed primarily as stabilizing components. 二硫桥可以被看作是初级的稳定因素。 来自辞典例句
• These stabilizing design changes are usually not desirable for steady-state operation. 这些增加稳定性的设计改变通常不太符合稳态工作的要求。 来自辞典例句

10 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

11 folly   

n.愚笨，愚蠢，蠢事，蠢行，傻话

参考例句：

• Learn wisdom by the folly of others.从别人的愚蠢行动中学到智慧。
• Events proved the folly of such calculations.事情的进展证明了这种估计是愚蠢的。

12 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

13 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

14 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

15 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

16 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

17 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

18 sprint   

n.短距离赛跑；vi. 奋力而跑，冲刺；vt.全速跑过

参考例句：

• He put on a sprint to catch the bus.他全速奔跑以赶上公共汽车。
• The runner seemed to be rallied for a final sprint.这名赛跑者似乎在振作精神作最后的冲刺。

19 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 deductions   

扣除( deduction的名词复数 )； 结论； 扣除的量； 推演

参考例句：

• Many of the older officers trusted agents sightings more than cryptanalysts'deductions. 许多年纪比较大的军官往往相信特务的发现，而不怎么相信密码分析员的推断。
• You know how you rush at things,jump to conclusions without proper deductions. 你知道你处理问题是多么仓促，毫无合适的演绎就仓促下结论。

21 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

22 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

23 simultaneously   

adv.同时发生地，同时进行地

参考例句：

• The radar beam can track a number of targets almost simultaneously.雷达波几乎可以同时追着多个目标。
• The Windows allow a computer user to execute multiple programs simultaneously.Windows允许计算机用户同时运行多个程序。

24 shortcut   

n.近路，捷径

参考例句：

• He was always looking for a shortcut to fame and fortune.他总是在找成名发财的捷径。
• If you take the shortcut,it will be two li closer.走抄道去要近2里路。

25 killer   

n.杀人者，杀人犯，杀手，屠杀者

参考例句：

• Heart attacks have become Britain's No.1 killer disease.心脏病已成为英国的头号致命疾病。
• The bulk of the evidence points to him as her killer.大量证据证明是他杀死她的。

26 retooling   

v.（给…）更换工具， （给…）更换机械设备( retool的现在分词 )；改组，革新

参考例句：

• The factory is retooling to start making the new line of cars. 工厂正在重新装备以便开始制造新系列车型。 来自辞典例句
• Among her suggestions: retooling factories to focus on rebuilding America's transportation system. 她的建议包括围绕重新建设美国交通系统这个重心来重组汽车工业。 来自互联网

27 stabilized   

v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The patient's condition stabilized. 患者的病情稳定下来。
• His blood pressure has stabilized. 他的血压已经稳定下来了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

28 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

29 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

30 frustrating   

adj.产生挫折的，使人沮丧的，令人泄气的v.使不成功( frustrate的现在分词 )；挫败；使受挫折；令人沮丧

参考例句：

• It's frustrating to have to wait so long. 要等这么长时间，真令人懊恼。
• It was a demeaning and ultimately frustrating experience. 那是一次有失颜面并且令人沮丧至极的经历。 来自《简明英汉词典》

31 unleash   

vt.发泄，发出；解带子放开

参考例句：

• They hope to create allies to unleash against diseases,pests,and invasive species.他们希望创造出一些新群体来对付疾病、害虫和一些有侵害性的物种。
• Changing water levels now at times unleash a miasma of disease from exposed sewage.如今，大坝不时地改变水位，从暴露的污水释放出了疾病瘴气。

32 coordination   

n.协调，协作

参考例句：

• Gymnastics is a sport that requires a considerable level of coordination.体操是一项需要高协调性的运动。
• The perfect coordination of the dancers and singers added a rhythmic charm to the performance.舞蹈演员和歌手们配合得很好，使演出更具魅力。

33 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

34 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。