PBS高端访谈:经济放缓是继任总统面临的最大挑战

 　　JEFFREY BROWN: On this final Friday before Election Day, there was word that jobs are on the increase, but so is unemployment.

　　The numbers were seized upon by the presidential candidates as they began making closing arguments on an issue that's been front and center throughout the campaign.

　　Did an economy in need of a spark find one in October? U.S. employers across nearly all sectors² were hiring, for a net gain of 171,000 new jobs. The Labor³ Department also revised its August and September figures higher, by 84,000.

　　All told, it signaled slow, but steady growth, and it was news that President Obama wanted to play up in the campaign's final weekend, especially in one critical state.

　　PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: O.H.!

　　CROWD: I.O.!

　　BARACK OBAMA: O.H.!

　　CROWD: I.O.!

　　BARACK OBAMA: O.H.!

　　CROWD: I.O.!

　　JEFFREY BROWN: The president made three stops in the BuckeyeState, starting in Hilliard, just outside Columbus.

　　BARACK OBAMA: In 2008, we were in the middle of two wars and the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. And today, our businesses have created nearly five-and-a-half million new jobs.

　　And this morning, we learned that companies hired more workers in October than at any time in the last eight months.

　　(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

　　JEFFREY BROWN: And the trend line seemed promising⁴ as well. Since July, the economy has added an average of 173,000 jobs per month, up from just 67,000 a month in the spring.

　　At the same time, though, the unemployment rate ticked up a 10th of a point in October to 7.9 percent, as more people began looking for work again.

　　In West Allis, Wis., the president's Republican challenger, Mitt⁵ Romney, focused on that number, insisting again we can do better.

　　MITT ROMNEY (R): He said he was going to lower the unemployment rate down to 5.2 percent right now.

　　Today, we learned that it's actually 7.9 percent, and that's nine million jobs short of what he promised. Unemployment is higher today than when Barack Obama took office.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: What's more, Romney warned, sticking with the president's economic policies will guarantee gridlock and worse.

　　MITT ROMNEY: Unless we change course, we may be looking at another recession. You can choose real change.

　　You know that if the president is reelected, he will still be unable to work with the people in Congress. He has ignored them, he's attacked them, he's blamed them.

　　The debt ceiling will come up again, and shutdown and default will be threatened, chilling the economy.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: In turn, the president his opponent of trying to scare voters over their economic futures⁶.

　　NARRATOR: Who will do more for the auto⁷ industry?

　　JEFFREY BROWN: He pointed⁸ to a Romney ad running in Ohio that charges Jeep is shipping⁹ jobs to China.

　　BARACK OBAMA: You have got folks who work at the Jeep plant who've been calling their employers, worried, asking, is it true? Are our jobs being shipped to China? And the reason they are making these calls is Gov. Romney's been running an ad that says so, except it's not true.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Chrysler has said it has no plans to move the jobs. The Romney campaign insists it's standing¹⁰ by its claim.

　　There promised to be much more battling over economic policy, with the race in a dead heat going down to the wire.

　　And we look now at the jobs picture with two economists¹² with ties to the presidential candidates. John Taylor of StanfordUniversity and the Hoover Institution, he advises the Romney campaign on economic issues.

　　And Austan Goolsbee of the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, he served as President Obama's chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers¹³ until last year.

　　Well, Austan Goolsbee, to the extent possible, set aside the rhetoric¹⁴ of the campaign if you can for a moment. Tell us about the bigger picture.

　　What strikes you most, what worries you most about the jobs picture now and in the coming years?

　　AUSTAN GOOLSBEE, University of Chicago: Well, I would say any reputable economist¹¹ says every month don't just take any one month's numbers. Try to take a step back and look at the trend. That's far more accurate and there's less noise in it.

　　I think if you look at the trend, the overall job creation has been relatively¹⁵ solid for the last three months. The overall growth rate of the economy is the most worrisome thing, that it's been modest, you know, moderate growth, and that that is about the fastest growth rate of all the advanced countries of the world.

　　I think the underlying¹⁶ fear that we have is, this is not a strong period in the whole world and there are a lot of threats coming from the slowdowns in Asia and in Europe that we're trying to overcome. And we have got to get the growth rate higher if we want to see faster job creation.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Well, John Taylor, same question. What is the problem that most needs to be addressed by whoever is the next president?

　　JOHN TAYLOR, StanfordUniversity: That unemployment rate. It's too high. It shouldn't be this high. And it has increased a bit.

　　But it's increased even more in states like—I think Pennsylvania went up from 7.4 to 8.2 over the last few months. And the reason is the weak economy.

　　We shouldn't be growing this slowly. We have an economy which can do much better. It's done better in similar periods in the past. And with the right policies, it can do much better, get the unemployment down much further.

　　And there's also people dropping out of the labor force. You know, in Ohio, since the recovery began, 194,000 people just dropped out of the labor force, stopped looking for work. That's another bad sign that I think people should be very concerned about. It's really depressing what's happening with respect to the labor market right now in this country.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: But how much of it, Austan Goolsbee, back to you, is the immediate¹⁷ economy, the cyclical—the cycles that we see, and how much of it is what is talked about it as more structural¹⁸ issues, changing technology, globalization, a kind of new normal that we have heard about from many people?

　　AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: Well...

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Hold on. Let me go with Austan Goolsbee here first.

　　JOHN TAYLOR: OK.

　　AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: OK.

　　So, two parts, one, of the how much of the unemployment rate is coming from structural, I think not that high. I do think that is the thing that the economy is going to have to do. The fundamental reason why this recession looks a lot like the 2001 recovery and not the 1983 recovery is we can't go back to doing what we were doing before the recession began.

　　Just, as in 2001, a bubble popped and then you're trying to shift what the economy is doing. So there is some element of that.

　　But we also have got a significant component¹⁹, as I say, of the whole world has slowed down. The U.S. growth rate, while not fast enough, is faster than the rest of the advanced world.

　　So we have got to find a way to get ourselves boosted up where we're not getting any support from being able to increase our exports to other countries, when that is exactly the place that we need to be transforming into. So that is what made it more difficult.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: John Taylor, what is your answer to that, cyclical vs. structural, when it comes to jobs?

　　JOHN TAYLOR: I think it's largely cyclical. It's because the growth rate has been so slow coming out of the recession. And you can't blame the rest of the world. The U.S. has had strong growth in the past when Japan has been suffering. And so it's our own problem. It's our own policies that's the trouble right now.

　　And I think that's what—why I am so frustrated²⁰, why I think it's tragic²¹, quite frankly²², because we could have better policies. We could have had this unemployment rate down already with the right policy.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Well, staying with you, John Taylor, then what can a president—we hear a lot of promises in this campaign. What can a president or a president and Congress actually do in terms of magic wands?

　　What—when they say they will do something, how much can they do immediately to affect the unemployment rate?

　　JOHN TAYLOR: I think they can do a tremendous amount.

　　It's not a magic wand. It's just basic economics.

　　We saw this in the '80s and the '90s. It's not a partisan²³ issue. When the right policies are in place, when we don't have all the short-termism, the temporary stimulus²⁴ packages or increases in regulation, the fiscal²⁵ cliffs, when we get a solid policy that's predictable, the economy grows.

　　And when we have tax reform, we get tax rate downs, it stimulates²⁶ incentives²⁷ for firms to hire people.

　　It really is basic economics. And, again, that why this is tragic. Applying basic economics, we could do a lot better.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Well, Austan Goolsbee, do you want to respond on what the president you worked for has done?

　　AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: Look, I will just say that we can agree on the basic economics, but I think that Professor Taylor has got his history a little backward on that.

　　In the 1990s, Bill Clinton raised exactly the high-income tax rates that Barack Obama wants to return the rates to.

　　And the 2000s, which he didn't mention, when George Bush followed the policies very similar to what Mitt Romney is proposing, they actually added more than one million fewer private sector¹ jobs in George Bush's first term than President Obama has under his first term.

　　So I really do not think that the basic economics or the history says that just going back to deregulation and high-rate—high-income rate cuts is the thing that leads to growth.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: And do you think, Professor... Well, go ahead. Go ahead.

　　JOHN TAYLOR: We saw two decades, '80s and '90s, with extraordinary growth. Economists called it the great moderation, long boom.

　　And that's because those stable policies were put in place, the tax reform, if you like, of 1986, a bipartisan reform.

　　President Reagan worked with Democrats²⁸ in Congress. That is the kind of thing we need now to get this strong economy back.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Back to you, Professor Goolsbee, just this question about...

　　AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I agree with that. I think tax reform and a grand bargain-type budget deal, if done in a balanced way, I think that would be a good achievement for both parties.

　　And whoever is elected on Tuesday, I hope they will do that in 2013.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: How much—Austan Goolsbee, back to the question of how much can a president actually do, because we hear so much in a campaign about what will happen, what will happen quickly if one or the other is elected.

　　AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: Right.

　　You know, I used to—I was in the White House for a while and I used to joke, I crawled all around in the basement, I have yet to find that switch down there that you just flip²⁹ it and then everything gets better.

　　I think 90-plus percent of what happens in a growing economy has nothing to do with Washington.

　　What the president and what Washington, in general, can do is try to set the stage and set a groundwork for policy that could encourage growth. And I think the shorter term that you are thinking about, the less can be done specifically by the president.

　　So if you are asking over a one-month or three-month period, there's very little the president can do.

　　If you start asking over a five-year, 10-year period, then the policy decisions they make can influence quite a lot the way things go.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: And, John Taylor, brief last word on that?

　　JOHN TAYLOR: Well, I think, as we are talking about four years, what is going to happen in the next four years, that is a time where a president can make a tremendous difference.

　　And we're talking about the past four years. And the president could have made—agree with Austan—could have made a much better policy with the unemployment being so high.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: All right, John Taylor and Austan Goolsbee, thanks so much.

　　AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: Thank you.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: And if you're ready for more analysis on the jobs numbers, you will find it, as always, on Paul Solman's Making Sense page online.

1 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

2 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

3 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

4 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

5 mitt   

n.棒球手套，拳击手套，无指手套；vt.铐住，握手

参考例句：

• I gave him a baseball mitt for his birthday.为祝贺他的生日，我送给他一只棒球手套。
• Tom squeezed a mitt and a glove into the bag.汤姆把棒球手套和手套都塞进袋子里。

6 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

7 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

8 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

9 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

10 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

11 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

12 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

14 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

15 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

16 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

17 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

18 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

19 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

20 frustrated   

adj.挫败的，失意的，泄气的v.使不成功( frustrate的过去式和过去分词 )；挫败；使受挫折；令人沮丧

参考例句：

• It's very easy to get frustrated in this job. 这个工作很容易令人懊恼。
• The bad weather frustrated all our hopes of going out. 恶劣的天气破坏了我们出行的愿望。 来自《简明英汉词典》

21 tragic   

adj.悲剧的，悲剧性的，悲惨的

参考例句：

• The effect of the pollution on the beaches is absolutely tragic.污染海滩后果可悲。
• Charles was a man doomed to tragic issues.查理是个注定不得善终的人。

22 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

23 partisan   

adj.党派性的；游击队的；n.游击队员；党徒

参考例句：

• In their anger they forget all the partisan quarrels.愤怒之中，他们忘掉一切党派之争。
• The numerous newly created partisan detachments began working slowly towards that region.许多新建的游击队都开始慢慢地向那里移动。

24 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

25 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

26 stimulates   

v.刺激( stimulate的第三人称单数 )；激励；使兴奋；起兴奋作用，起刺激作用，起促进作用

参考例句：

• Exercise stimulates the body. 运动促进身体健康。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Alcohol stimulates the action of the heart. 酒刺激心脏的活动。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

27 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

28 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

29 flip   

vt.快速翻动；轻抛；轻拍；n.轻抛；adj.轻浮的

参考例句：

• I had a quick flip through the book and it looked very interesting.我很快翻阅了一下那本书，看来似乎很有趣。
• Let's flip a coin to see who pays the bill.咱们来抛硬币决定谁付钱。