pbs高端访谈:美国历史上最大的网购日

 　　JEFFREY BROWN:A still tentative American economy looked online today, as digital deals were to be had, and holiday shoppers lit up Web sites. Retailers² had high hopes that Cyber Monday sales would add to what's been a strong start so far.

　　If all goes as expected, today will end up being the busiest online shopping day of the year, with major bargains and steep discounts just a click away.

　　MARSHAL COHEN,The NPD Group: Every year, we keep seeing more and more consumers shopping online, both the younger consumer which was born with a computer in their crib. They're very comfortable with doing it. And the older generation is also now shopping online. Deals are becoming plentiful³.

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　　JEFFREY BROWN:All told, the research firm comScore estimates Americans will spend $1.5 billion online today. That would be an increase of 20 percent from last year.

　　In anticipation⁴, Amazon.com and other major online sellers are going all out to keep up with the spike⁵ in demand. And all this follows a successful opening holiday sales weekend that began on Thanksgiving night.

　　The National Retail¹ Federation⁶ reports a record 247 million consumers have cashed in on door-buster deals in stores and online.

　　On Friday alone, Internet sales surpassed the $1 billion mark for the first time.

　　For more now about the early impact of this shopping season and the broader economic trends, Nariman Behravesh is chief economist⁷ for IHS, a research and forecasting firm.

　　Nancy Koehn has written about the retail industry as a historian at the HarvardBusinessSchool.

　　And Neil Irwin is an economics editor and columnist⁸ for The Washington Post.

　　Nariman Behravesh, let me start with you. What's the overview⁹ of the number so far? What do you take from them?

　　NARIMAN BEHRAVESH, IHS Global Insight: Well, there are a couple of trends, obviously.

　　One is that the consumer is in a very good mood, for good reason. Income growth is decent. Job growth is coming along, as it were. Housing is doing well. So consumers are in a pretty good mood.

　　Consumer confidence is at a four-year high and that's getting reflected in the Christmas sales, if you will. They're solid. They're reasonable strong, 4 percent-5 percent growth year over year.

　　But as you were saying earlier, it's really the online sales that are booming. They're growing well into the double digits¹⁰. You mentioned the 20 percent rate. That's about what we're expecting for this year compared with last year, so solid growth in terms of the total spending of consumers on Christmas goods and holiday sales and stuff.

　　But the really interesting story is the online story, where it's just growing like gangbusters.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Let me ask Nancy Koehn, because we talked about this expanded shopping season, earlier than Thanksgiving and now Cyber Monday.

　　How are retailers dealing¹¹ with this change? It's a landscape that has changed even from a few years ago.

　　NANCY KOEHN, HarvardSchool of Business: Very much so. It's a landscape with which all these boundaries are blurring¹², the boundaries between brick and mortar¹³ and online, the boundaries between channels. It's like someone took a big pink eraser and like smudged all over retail.

　　So, smart retailers, everyone from Neiman Marcus at the high end to Target in the kind of high-low category, are figuring out how to use the Web, including smartphones, right, including apps for smartphones, to draw traffic into their store, to increase their online sales, and to really try and make one plus one equals three.

　　And it looks like, for places like Target, again, places like Apple, that strategy is working very well. So a changed game, a game that's really very dynamic in which everyone is hunting and gathering¹⁴, retailers for customers, customers for deals.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:And, Neil Irwin, there's still a lot of attention on the weekend and sort of this season as an indicator¹⁵. But you have written that maybe it's not such a good indicator.

　　NEIL IRWIN,The Washington Post: Yes. I know we all love these stories of people rushing through the doors of the Wal-Mart to get their television or all these sales and everyone going online of course today on Monday.

　　In fact, as a broader indicator of what's happening in the retail sector¹⁶, it's not the best indicator in the world. It doesn't tell you a whole lot about what happens throughout the holiday season, what happens to personal consumption as a whole. That said, this is a very important season for retailers. This is an important season for economy.

　　And with all the uncertainty¹⁷ out there, to see a good start to it is better than the alternative.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:So, what do you see? Pick up on some of the things we just heard about.

　　NEIL IRWIN:Yes. Well, as Nariman alluded¹⁸ to, the American household is starting to fix its financial problems. It's gradual, it's halting.

　　Debt service ratios are down to the 1990s level. The level of household debt to GDP is down to early 2000 levels. So we're making progress in paying off these debts from the boom years.

　　The job market is gradually crawling back. And, actually, consumer sentiment, it stepped down a little in November, but is actually—was up a good bit in September and October.

　　So, American consumers are feeling better than they were a year ago. The question is how much does that translate into cashing their—making purchases at the store?

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Well, Nariman Behravesh, that is the—consumers are feeling a little better. Are businesses feeling a little better? Are they investing? Are they maybe hiring? What—how does all—how does that work?

　　NARIMAN BEHRAVESH:Well, in a worrying way, they're not. And we do have this disconnect in the U.S. economy between consumers on the one hand—and they account for 70 percent of the economy, but they're feeling fairly good about things, whereas businesses are not.

　　And businesses tend to be more worried about things like the fiscal¹⁹ cliff. They're more worried about the troubles in Europe. They're more worried about the slowdown in China. So, you do have this disconnect.

　　The big concern now is, which way is it going to go? Who is going to win this tug-of-war?

　　So far, it's the consumer, but let's hope it's not the other direction, because, as I said, let's hope that the businesses will eventually come around to thinking about things the way consumers are.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Nancy Koehn, I want to come back to you on this question of online shopping and the changed landscape, because does that have a real impact on—does the rise of online shopping have a real impact on the economy or is it just sort of shifting, transferring where people buy their—buy their—buy their things?

　　NANCY KOEHN:Well, I think that's a very open question, partly because this is so new and the marriage and the magic of online plus bricks and mortar.

　　I mean, there's no question people are visiting online websites more often than they do stores.

　　Whether that adds up to kind of incremental²⁰, organic growth is a question we just don't know, because, remember, we're starting with all online sales from a much, much lower base when we talk about brick and mortar sales. We're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars, $600 billion in predicted holiday sales.

　　Only a small portion of that, maybe 20 percent, but much more likely somewhere around 10 percent, will be online sales. I think some of that is really organic and new, but we don't yet have the numbers for this holiday season.

　　You know, as several people have commented today, we don't even know that this kind of momentum²¹, which is very real, very significant for this five-day holiday spree, much more than even the boom optimists²² predicted, whether that will continue into the long holiday season still ahead.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Neil, what do you look at when—the question of online shopping, is it its own thing? Does it add to the whole? What is its impact in the larger picture?

　　NEIL IRWIN:People are going to spend based on their incomes and their jobs and their paychecks. Ultimately, whether that spending happens online at Amazon or in a store, you know, it matters for the retail sector. It matters for all kinds of workers in that sector.

　　But in terms of the overall economy, what matters is how much people are spending. One man's spending is another man's income. And getting to a place where more people have jobs, people have higher incomes, that's the goal, wherever those dollars happen to be spent.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:And what is your reading on the psychology²³ of consumers now? You were saying earlier that the debt overhang seems to be better. Is there a pent-up demand? Can we tell yet?

　　NEIL IRWIN:Not much sign of pent-up demand.

　　One thing I'm worried about is this fiscal cliff issue, the tax increases and spending cuts that take place Jan. 1, unless Congress and the president reach a deal, that business has been worried about that for months. Maybe consumers are starting to—maybe it's starting to creep into their thinking as well.

　　We saw a weaker consumer sentiment number last week. That's the kind of thing to watch, to worry about as we wonder what this holiday season is going to be like.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:And, Nariman, I want to ask you, is it strange or have things really changed?

　　Because on the one hand we want people to get out and spend, but on the other hand we still talk about overspending and spending with money that people didn't really have was part of the problem that got us into this state in the first place.

　　So what's—that sounds like a little bit of a disconnect. Where are we on that?

　　NARIMAN BEHRAVESH:Well, I think Neil is right in saying that consumer finances are in much better shape right now. So, in that sense, the kind of spending we're seeing now is more sustainable. It's healthier in a sense.

　　Debt levels are down. People are not taking, say, home equity²⁴ out to spend on a car or, you know, on a flat-screen TV. So it's a much healthier kind of spending.

　　I'm much more optimistic that it can be sustained, it can be continued, and it's not going to be sort of a house of cards that's going to collapse²⁵ at some point. So, in that sense, I think there is room for optimism.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:A brief last word on that from you, Nancy Koehn? What do you see?

　　NANCY KOEHN:Could not agree more. I think consumers are much smarter, much savvier, much more adaptable²⁶.

　　You notice how much consumer sentiment bounces around month to month. That's not a capricious consumer. That's a consumer who is taking their pulse and adjusting their wallets and their spending very quickly without access to the kind of debt and house of cards financing that we saw for the early part of this decade.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Even, Neil, if they're lining²⁷ up overnight, right, to get to a deal.

　　NANCY KOEHN:Even if they're lining up.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:All right, Neil Irwin, Nancy Koehn, Nariman Behravesh, thank you, all three, very much.

　　NEIL IRWIN:Thanks, Jeff.

　　NANCY KOEHN:Pleasure.

　　NARIMAN BEHRAVESH:Thank you.

1 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

2 retailers   

零售商，零售店( retailer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• High street retailers reported a marked increase in sales before Christmas. 商业街的零售商报告说圣诞节前销售量显著提高。
• Retailers have a statutory duty to provide goods suitable for their purpose. 零售商有为他们提供符合要求的货品的法定义务。

3 plentiful   

adj.富裕的，丰富的

参考例句：

• Their family has a plentiful harvest this year.他们家今年又丰收了。
• Rainfall is plentiful in the area.这个地区雨量充足。

4 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

5 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

6 federation   

n.同盟，联邦，联合，联盟，联合会

参考例句：

• It is a federation of 10 regional unions.它是由十个地方工会结合成的联合会。
• Mr.Putin was inaugurated as the President of the Russian Federation.普京正式就任俄罗斯联邦总统。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 columnist   

n.专栏作家

参考例句：

• The host was interviewing a local columnist.节目主持人正在同一位当地的专栏作家交谈。
• She's a columnist for USA Today.她是《今日美国报》的专栏作家。

9 overview   

n.概观，概述

参考例句：

• The opening chapter gives a brief historical overview of transport.第一章是运输史的简要回顾。
• The seminar aims to provide an overview on new media publishing.研讨会旨在综览新兴的媒体出版。

10 digits   

n.数字( digit的名词复数 )；手指，足趾

参考例句：

• The number 1000 contains four digits. 1000是四位数。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The number 410 contains three digits. 数字 410 中包括三个数目字。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

11 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

12 blurring   

n.模糊，斑点甚多，（图像的）混乱v.（使）变模糊( blur的现在分词 )；（使）难以区分

参考例句：

• Retinal hemorrhage, and blurring of the optic dise cause visual disturbances. 视网膜出血及神经盘模糊等可导致视力障碍。 来自辞典例句
• In other ways the Bible limited Puritan writing, blurring and deadening the pages. 另一方面，圣经又限制了清教时期的作品，使它们显得晦涩沉闷。 来自辞典例句

13 mortar   

n.灰浆，灰泥；迫击炮；v.把…用灰浆涂接合

参考例句：

• The mason flushed the joint with mortar.泥工用灰浆把接缝处嵌平。
• The sound of mortar fire seemed to be closing in.迫击炮的吼声似乎正在逼近。

14 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

15 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

16 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

17 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

18 alluded   

提及，暗指( allude的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• In your remarks you alluded to a certain sinister design. 在你的谈话中，你提到了某个阴谋。
• She also alluded to her rival's past marital troubles. 她还影射了对手过去的婚姻问题。

19 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

20 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

21 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

22 optimists   

n.乐观主义者( optimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Even optimists admit the outlook to be poor. 甚至乐观的人都认为前景不好。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Optimists reckon house prices will move up with inflation this year. 乐观人士认为今年的房价将会随通货膨胀而上涨。 来自辞典例句

23 psychology   

n.心理，心理学，心理状态

参考例句：

• She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
• He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。

24 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

25 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

26 adaptable   

adj.能适应的，适应性强的，可改编的

参考例句：

• He is an adaptable man and will soon learn the new work.他是个适应性很强的人，很快就将学会这种工作。
• The soil is adaptable to the growth of peanuts.这土壤适宜于花生的生长。

27 lining   

n.衬里，衬料

参考例句：

• The lining of my coat is torn.我的外套衬里破了。
• Moss makes an attractive lining to wire baskets.用苔藓垫在铁丝篮里很漂亮。