pbs高端访谈:美国挣扎着从经济大萧条中复苏

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF:Government officials said today the trust fund fueling the nation's Medicare program is in somewhat stronger shape than it was last year. They projected it will stay solvent¹ until 2026, two years later than last year's projections².

　　At the same time, the budget outlook for the nation's Social Security program remains³ unchanged. It is projected to stay solvent until funding runs out in 2033.

　　Meanwhile, a new Federal Reserve study found that, while some Americans are rebounding⁴ from the economic recession, others continue to struggle. Among the results: U.S. households have recovered on average only 45 percent of the $16 trillion dollars of wealth lost during the recession. Two-thirds of that regained⁵ wealth is tied to rising stock prices, which have disproportionately benefited well-off Americans.

　　But for middle- and lower-income households, the economic picture is not so bright, due in large part to depressed⁶ home prices, still 30 percent below their peak.

　　To discuss what this means for the nation's economic recovery, we talk to a co-author of that report.

　　William Emmons is chief economist⁷ at the Center for Household Financial Stability at the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis.

　　Welcome to the NewsHour.

　　So it's clear, Mr. Emmons, that for many Americans they're doing very well since this recession. But for others, in your report, they're not. Who are those who are still struggling?

　　WILLIAM EMMONS, Chief Economist, Center for Household Financial Stability, Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis: Those that are struggling tend to be younger families, some middle-aged⁸ families, in general, also families whose heads have less education, also members of historically disadvantaged minorities, African-Americans and Hispanics.

　　So those are the demographic features of families that are struggling the most.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF:Is that the—so there's a bright line you can draw between—it's people at the lower end of the economic scale?

　　WILLIAMS EMMONS:Actually, the same families that we knew were struggling a bit even before the downturn are still struggling.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF:Well, let me ask you. There was a national Federal Reserve report, as you know, that came out not long ago ...

　　WILLIAMS EMMONS: Yes.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: ... that said 91 percent of the wealth that had been lost during the recession has since been restored. How does that square with what your findings are?

　　WILLIAMS EMMONS:That's the starting point, those numbers through the end of last year. The next report will be coming out in early June that will bring us through the end of the first quarter.

　　Those numbers gave that 91 percent recovery figure. Then we adjusted that for inflation that's occurred since that time, since the peak in 2007, and also adjusted for the number of households. The population has grown. When you make those two adjustments, in fact, you get this lower level. So it's -- that earlier report is absolutely the foundation of what we did. We just adjusted it to put it in terms that I think are probably more realistic for most families. What can their money buy and what does an individual family feel in terms of the share of wealth?

　　JUDY WOODRUFF:What is known about how many of these families who are still below water, if you will, in terms of not regaining⁹ wealth, about how about how many of them were really kind of -- were overextended before the financial crash, had borrowed too much, were borrowing too much off their homes, were just more in debt than they needed to be?

　　WILLIAMS EMMONS:Absolutely.

　　More so than in earlier times before downturns, we know from some of the data that we're looking at, that an unusually large number of families, in fact, as you said, had a lot of debt relative to their income, to the value of their assets, also lots of concentration in housing on the asset side of their balance sheets, also, as we know, very low savings¹⁰ rates, and for some families using expensive financial services.

　　So those are really the key vulnerabilities, what we call “balance sheet failures,” that, as you suggest, were even more common going into this downturn than was usual. And, of course, the downturn then exacerbated¹¹ those problems.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF:So to the extent they were overextended, had borrowed too much, could one argue that it's smart, that it's wise for them to be more cautious in what they're spending right now, not to go back into debt?

　　WILLIAMS EMMONS:Oh, absolutely.

　　I think it makes perfect sense that people are trying to rebuild their financial strength, rebuild their balance sheets. And that involves in some cases paying down debt or not taking on as much debt as they had in the past. Certainly, people are struggling to reattach to the job market. The job market is weak. Income growth is strong—and also diversifying¹² a little bit beyond housing.

　　So those are absolutely the things that you would expect people to try to do to respond to this sort of a downturn.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF:What is it going to take to restore fully¹³ the wealth that Americans had before the financial crash? Or is there reason to believe it won't be restored?

　　WILLIAMS EMMONS:I think there are reasons to think it will take a long time to get back to any semblance¹⁴ of what we had before.

　　Now, probably in 2005, '6, and '7, that was unrealistic. We had, remember, a housing bubble, so we really don't expect housing values to get back to those levels any time soon. Also, the stock market was very strong. So, in answer to your question, I think it will take years to get back to anything close to what we had, but it could also be that as we look back, that that was an unusual peak level of wealth that wasn't in the end sustainable.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And when you say takes years, meaning years for companies, for employers to hire, years for wages to go up? Is that what you're referring to?

　　WILLIAMS EMMONS:That's, of course, the raw material. Most people are going to rebuild those balance sheets through the earnings¹⁵ from work and savings, and, of course, some appreciation¹⁶ of asset values.

　　Stock prices have gone up a lot. House prices maybe will increase a bit more. So that—all of those things combined, as well as managing the debt, so we don't have the buildup of debt we had before.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF:And, finally, from looking at all that you have looked at, Mr. Emmons, what would you say are the lessons we should learn for the next time we have a financial crisis?

　　WILLIAMS EMMONS:Well, that's exactly what we're looking at.

　　And I think—as I said, I think we were overly dependent on housing. People had too much of their wealth invested in housing. We had too much debt relative to our—certainly our income. We even could see that before the downturn. After house prices declined, we can see it was too much debt relative to the value of even the houses.

　　And just in terms of building savings, building wealth through savings, as you suggest, we really do need a more consistent, higher level of household savings to—to help build in those buffers¹⁷ into stronger balance sheets.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF:Well, it helps us to understand all of that through your research.

　　Williams Emmons with the Saint Louis Federal Reserve, thanks very much.

　　WILLIAMS EMMONS:Thank you very much.

1 solvent   

n.溶剂；adj.有偿付能力的

参考例句：

• Gasoline is a solvent liquid which removes grease spots.汽油是一种能去掉油污的有溶解力的液体。
• A bankrupt company is not solvent.一个破产的公司是没有偿还债务的能力的。

2 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

3 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

4 rebounding   

蹦跳运动

参考例句：

• The strength of negative temperature concrete is tested with supersonic-rebounding method. 本文将超声回弹综合法用于负温混凝土强度检测。
• The fundamental of basketball includes shooting, passing and catching, rebounding, etc. 篮球运动中最基本的东西包括投篮，传接球，篮板球等。

5 regained   

复得( regain的过去式和过去分词 )； 赢回； 重回； 复至某地

参考例句：

• The majority of the people in the world have regained their liberty. 世界上大多数人已重获自由。
• She hesitated briefly but quickly regained her poise. 她犹豫片刻，但很快恢复了镇静。

6 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 middle-aged   

adj.中年的

参考例句：

• I noticed two middle-aged passengers.我注意到两个中年乘客。
• The new skin balm was welcome by middle-aged women.这种新护肤香膏受到了中年妇女的欢迎。

9 regaining   

复得( regain的现在分词 )； 赢回； 重回； 复至某地

参考例句：

• She was regaining consciousness now, but the fear was coming with her. 现在她正在恢发她的知觉，但是恐怖也就伴随着来了。
• She said briefly, regaining her will with a click. 她干脆地答道，又马上重新振作起精神来。

10 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

11 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 diversifying   

v.使多样化，多样化( diversify的现在分词 )；进入新的商业领域

参考例句：

• Some publishers are now diversifying into software. 有些出版社目前正兼营软件。 来自辞典例句
• Silverlit is diversifying into new markets, such as Russia and Eastern Europe. Silverlit正在使他们的市场变得多样化，开发新的市场如俄罗斯和东欧国家。 来自互联网

13 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

14 semblance   

n.外貌，外表

参考例句：

• Her semblance of anger frightened the children.她生气的样子使孩子们感到害怕。
• Those clouds have the semblance of a large head.那些云的形状像一个巨大的人头。

15 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

16 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

17 buffers   

起缓冲作用的人（或物）( buffer的名词复数 )； 缓冲器； 减震器； 愚蠢老头

参考例句：

• To allocate and schedule the use of buffers. 分配和计划缓冲器的使用。
• Number of times the stream has paused due to insufficient stream buffers. 由于流缓冲区不足导致流程暂停的次数。