pbs高端访谈:六月就业报告超出预期

 　　JEFFREY BROWN:There was good news today on the jobs front. The Labor¹ Department reported that U.S. employers added 195,000 jobs in June, well above forecasts. The unemployment rate remained at 7.6 percent, as more people came into the job market, another positive sign. Additionally, figures from April and May were revised upward. The increase means on average 202,000 jobs were added each month in the first half of 2013.

　　Stocks rose on the news. On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 147 points to close above 15,135. The Nasdaq rose nearly 36 points to close at 3,479. For the week, the Dow gained 1.5 percent. The Nasdaq rose two percent.

　　And joining us from Boston now is economist² Catherine Mann of the Brandeis International Business School at Brandeis University.

　　Well, welcome to you. So, better than expected. What jumps out at you as most promising³ in these numbers?

　　CATHERINE MANN, Professor of Economics, Brandeis University International Business School: Well, you know the top-line numbers really are very good, as you noted⁴ there, over 200,000 jobs created over the last half of the year. That's about that magic number of 200,000 that we have been waiting for that is trying to propel the economy forward and lower the unemployment rate.

　　But there is this conundrum⁵ that we haven't seen a decline in the unemployment rate yet. You know, there are some good other signs if we look down into the guts⁶, as you said, the revisions, the upward revisions. Also, one of the things that I think is notable is that the number of people who are leaving jobs in order to get new ones has actually gone up. This is a good sign because it means that people are confident that if they choose to leave a job voluntarily that they will be able to find a new one.

　　But there are some negative aspects to the report as well, though.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:But, before you get there, what about—let's—tell us about some of the sectors⁸. I mean, one area that was down, surprisingly I suppose in some ways, is manufacturing, because we often look to it as a bellwether⁹. Another area continued down is the public sector⁷ jobs.

　　CATHERINE MANN:Well, we know why the public sector is down, you know, between the sequester¹⁰, where jobs that are not the—people are leaving and they're not being refilled, although at the federal level, most of the sequester is still being handled through furlough, as opposed to through actually firing people.

　　At the state and local level, there's a little bit of a bright spot, if you're in education, at least, that state and local jobs are up about 15,000 at the non-education component¹¹ of state and local government.

　　But with regard to the private sector, you know, the decomposition¹² between manufacturing and some of the other services sector, you know, manufacturing has been in the lead. It came out of the recession and added jobs much more quickly than did the services sector. I think many people were surprised about that.

　　Autos was a major component of that, as well as exports. Exports—of course, we export a lot of manufactured products. It's one of our major categories. And early in the recovery, the rest of the world was doing relatively¹³ well. And exports contributed dramatically to our GDP growth, one percentage point or more.

　　And so not surprisingly, there was a ramp-up for manufacturing employment. The global economy is not as strong as it was before. Domestic business investment has continued to be quite weak. And you put those two things together and that explains this little bit of a pullback, a 6,000- or 7,000-job pullback in manufacturing.

　　Now, if we look at the sectors on the services side, there's really a bifurcation, in that there are a range of services associated with either building or moving things around, transportation, utilities, mining and those sorts of things. Those jobs have been weak. Those are negatives for the month. Services, for example, leisure hospitality, food away from home, health, a little bit on finance, only 17,000.

　　What I see in terms of leisure and hospitality is that there are people out there who finally do want to go out for a restaurant meal, they do want to go for a little summer vacation. They have not been doing that for the last couple of years. They're looking at it as now I can—things are a little bit better. My confidence is a little bit up. I can go out and have a meal, buy a little extra summer vacation.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Let me ask you about another important aspect to this, because one of the key things hanging in the balance, of course, is the Federal Reserve and when it will start to pull back on its stimulus¹⁴. A lot of people waiting to see, and no doubt they're watching the unemployment number. How does a number like this fit in to that question of when they might start doing it?

　　CATHERINE MANN:Well, I think the Federal Reserve, and other members of the FOMC and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents who have been speaking about this question, I think they are looking at a lot of the guts of the 6.5 percent threshold for the unemployment rate that's very much, you know, in the FOMC statement.

　　And some of those guts actually are not very good-looking when we look at what we have on the top-line number. Top line's good, guts not so good. In particular, 300,000 people compared to last year are holding multiple jobs. Does that mean that they—you know, it's good that they can get a second job, I suppose. But does that mean they're not really earning enough at their first job in order to maintain their lifestyle?

　　About 300,000 are part-time for reasons associated with enemy combatant—a strong—a weak economy. In other words, they would be in a full-time¹⁵ job if they could find one, but they can't find one, so they are part-time for economic reasons. That is not a good number.

　　And, of course, the number that continues to really weigh on the overall unemployment rate is that we have got 40 percent, almost 40 percent of the people who are unemployed¹⁶ have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks. These are those long-term unemployed. And getting them back into being unemployed status is really crucial.

　　If we were similar to our historical experience with regard to characteristics of the unemployed, we probably would be very close to 6.5 percent threshold right now. So, getting the long-term unemployed back in the office or on the assembly line or building something, that's crucial.

　　And I think the Federal Reserve is looking at those kinds of issues, unemployed for long-term, unemployed for economic reasons, or multiple jobs. They're looking at those components¹⁷ to determine what they're going to do.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:OK. Yes.

　　All right, well, Catherine Mann at Brandeis University, thank you very much.

　　CATHERINE MANN:You're welcome.

1 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

4 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

5 conundrum   

n.谜语；难题

参考例句：

• Let me give you some history about a conundrum.让我给你们一些关于谜题的历史。
• Scientists had focused on two explanations to solve this conundrum.科学家已锁定两种解释来解开这个难题。

6 guts   

v.狼吞虎咽，贪婪地吃，飞碟游戏（比赛双方每组5人，相距15码，互相掷接飞碟）；毁坏（建筑物等）的内部( gut的第三人称单数 )；取出…的内脏n.勇气( gut的名词复数 )；内脏；消化道的下段；肠

参考例句：

• I'll only cook fish if the guts have been removed. 鱼若已收拾干净，我只需烧一下即可。
• Barbara hasn't got the guts to leave her mother. 巴巴拉没有勇气离开她妈妈。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

8 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

9 bellwether   

n.系铃的公羊，前导，领导者，群众的首领

参考例句：

• University campuses are often the bellwether of change.大学校园往往引领变革的新潮。
• For decades the company was the bellwether of the British economy.几十年来，这家公司一直是英国经济的晴雨表。

10 sequester   

vt.使退隐，使隔绝

参考例句：

• Everything he owned was sequestered.他的所有财产都被扣押了。
• This jury is expected to be sequestered for at least two months.预计这个陪审团将至少被隔离两个月。

11 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

12 decomposition   

n. 分解, 腐烂, 崩溃

参考例句：

• It is said that the magnetite was formed by a chemical process called thermal decomposition. 据说这枚陨星是在热分解的化学过程中形成的。
• The dehydration process leads to fairly extensive decomposition of the product. 脱水过程会导致产物相当程度的分解。

13 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

14 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

15 full-time   

adj.满工作日的或工作周的，全时间的

参考例句：

• A full-time job may be too much for her.全天工作她恐怕吃不消。
• I don't know how she copes with looking after her family and doing a full-time job.既要照顾家庭又要全天工作，我不知道她是如何对付的。

16 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

17 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。