PBS高端访问:埃博拉影响了可可市场?

 　　GWEN IFILL: Most of our coverage¹ about Ebola is focused on the human toll², particularly in West Africa, where it's killed nearly 5,000 people, about half of all infections.

　　But there have been other repercussions³ as well, as the outbreak slows economic growth on the continent. One export that's produced near affected⁴ countries? Cocoa.

　　Our economics correspondent, Paul Solman, sought to understand how those market forces are working, part of his ongoing⁵ reporting on Making Sense of financial news.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Prepping for Halloween, 2014, in New York City, where the spiders may be less scary than what they're liable to snare⁶, the urban cockroach⁷.

　　But, quite seriously, there's an economic menace this season, Ebola in West Africa, which grows most of the world's cocoa, the main ingredient of chocolate.

　　In Times Square, crossroads of the world, in this case, M&Ms' world and Hershey chocolate world, some confectionery consumers were preparing for a possible shortage. Will this mother stash⁸ chocolate for trick or treats because of Ebola?

　　WOMAN: Of course I will.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: You will?

　　WOMAN: Sure.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: And all over town, chocolate buyers have been paying an Ebola premium⁹.

　　Has the price of this gone up?

　　MAN: Yes. Two months ago.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Two months ago.

　　So a Kit¹⁰ Kat bar is now a buck¹¹ thirty five, up a dime¹², on the sidewalks of New York, and the noisy platforms below.

　　Has the price of chocolate gone up?

　　MAN: Ten cents.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Up 10 cents here too.

　　Meanwhile, at Dante Confections, maker¹³ of perhaps the finest truffles in Massachusetts, and surely the finest in North Billerica, president Santi Falcone's one-year cocoa contract with agribusiness giant Cargill came due in September.

　　SANTI FALCONE, Dante Confections: I almost fell out of the chair when I saw it. I thought it was a big mistake there — 26 percent? In 25 years, I have seen increases, 3 percent, 1 percent, stay the same, but, God, not 26 percent. You know, I mean, that's a little crazy.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: And how much of that price increase did you pass along to your customers?

　　SANTI FALCONE: I basically compromised by increasing the price between 9 to 10 percent. And when the candy shop gets a 10 percent price increase, he will have to raise it 20 percent.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: So now to the age-old question when markets move so dramatically: Is the price shock-au-chocolat due to fundamentals, a real change in the cocoa market caused in this case by supply disruption, or market psychology¹⁴, unfounded hysteria?

　　Back in Manhattan, David Martin runs his own hedge fund, has been a commodities trader since the 1980s. This year, he explains, the price of cocoa had been rising and subsiding¹⁵ with the conflicting reports about the seriousness of the Ebola outbreak. It began last spring, when the cocoa market:

　　DAVID MARTIN, Martin Fund Management: Rallies up on rumors¹⁶ of Ebola, comes off because they realize that it may not be a problem, and then reported cases come out of Africa, and the market has a huge spike¹⁷ up. People start to panic.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: People buying cocoa, that is, for a growing global market, China in particular. And why wouldn't they panic? Consider this CDC map of West Africa with, on the right, the Ivory Coast, the world's foremost cocoa grower.

　　DAVID MARTIN: You have the ivory coast here. You have the bordering countries. In dark orange are areas with confirmed and probable cases of the Ebola virus infection. A lot of the people who live in these areas come to work in the Ivory Coast to help with the harvest. If they fall ill or die, they can't come to work.

　　If they do come to work and they're infected, they infect these people. There's no one left to pick the beans, deliver them to the port, and make this whole system flow. So the fear is that if you disrupt this commercial activity, this whole supply chain, that's going to cause the price to skyrocket.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: So, a rational market response to Ebola, says Nobel laureate economist¹⁸ Paul Krugman.

　　PAUL KRUGMAN, The New York Times: Of course it's disrupting the economies of West Africa. Why would you be surprised if the prices of goods coming from West Africa go up? And if it's true, that, yes, we don't yet have a shortage, well, markets are supposed to anticipate that.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: But wait. The Ivory Coast remains¹⁹ Ebola-free and is actually ramping²⁰ up its exports to take advantage of the price rise. And high-end cocoa comes from other places as well. In Africa, maybe, but so what?

　　JOE SALVATORE, Chocolate Entrepreneur: Africa is such a big continent.

　　Brooklyn chocolate entrepreneur Joe Salvatore.

　　JOE SALVATORE: What's happening in West Africa is not happening in East Africa, what's happening in Madagascar.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Madagascar, an East African island almost exactly as close to Liberia as Miami to the North Pole, is where Salvatore volunteered for the Peace Corps²¹, and then helped start a business to boost the local economy.

　　Madecasse now makes chocolate from start to finish in Madagascar, distributes to the U.S. from Williamsburg. Its face-to-face way of doing business buffers²² it from the commodities market and all the middlemen between grower and retailer²³.

　　JOE SALVATORE: What we're doing is, we work directly with farmers. When you take a lot of the middlemen out of that equation, you're able to actually save money on both sides.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: And it's middlemen who hiked the price to those kiosks in New York and the likes of Santi Falcone.

　　Do you think that they were simply passing along to you the price increase that they felt when they're buying the raw cocoa, or that they were taking advantage of a rise in prices to stick it to people like you?

　　SANTI FALCONE: Maybe they are sticking it to the little people. Maybe, maybe not. But, certainly, I don't like it, and my customers don't like it.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: But, again, is the price rise based on reality or imagination? To veteran cocoa trader David Martin, in the short run, it's irrational²⁴ market psychology, not fundamentals, that drives investors²⁵.

　　DAVID MARTIN: Some sort of hysteria that, I don't want to buy this bag of raw cocoa beans because it was handled by people that may have the Ebola virus. They see the images on the news of people suffering and dying, and everyone just afraid to even go near them. That's a pretty emotional story, I think.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: And, surely, emotions play a hallowed role in market swings, like those lately in oil or stocks.

　　In the end, says Martin:

　　DAVID MARTIN: Price movements aren't about the values of the companies of the stock market. They're not about the price of cocoa or the price of coffee. They're about the study of human behavior and how humans react.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: So how might Ebola cause humans to react in the cocoa market, now that the winter holidays are coming? How about Valentine's Day and Easter? The price has dropped almost 10 percent, but, says Falcone:

　　SANTI FALCONE: The salesperson²⁶ for Cargill, he feels that the market is still going to go further up, that the Asian market is taking all of the cocoa, which is driving the market up.

　　PAUL SOLMAN: But your suspicion is that this was a scare, the Ebola scare, and then speculators jumping in and driving up the price?

　　SANTI FALCONE: I would assume that. Wouldn't you agree with me, or…

　　PAUL SOLMAN: Given what we have heard, yes, I guess we would. But, as with all swings, in all markets, how would you ever know?

　　I'm Paul Solman for the "NewsHour" in New York.

1 coverage   

n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖

参考例句：

• There's little coverage of foreign news in the newspaper.报纸上几乎没有国外新闻报道。
• This is an insurance policy with extensive coverage.这是一项承保范围广泛的保险。

2 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

3 repercussions   

n.后果，反响( repercussion的名词复数 )；余波

参考例句：

• The collapse of the company will have repercussions for the whole industry. 这家公司的垮台将会给整个行业造成间接的负面影响。
• Human acts have repercussions far beyond the frontiers of the human world. 人类行为所产生的影响远远超出人类世界的范围。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

5 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

6 snare   

n.陷阱，诱惑，圈套；（去除息肉或者肿瘤的）勒除器；响弦，小军鼓；vt.以陷阱捕获，诱惑

参考例句：

• I used to snare small birds such as sparrows.我曾常用罗网捕捉麻雀等小鸟。
• Most of the people realized that their scheme was simply a snare and a delusion.大多数人都认识到他们的诡计不过是一个骗人的圈套。

7 cockroach   

n.蟑螂

参考例句：

• A cockroach can live several weeks with its head off.蟑螂在头被切掉后仍能活好几个星期。
• She screamed when she found a cockroach in her bed.她在床上找到一只蟑螂时大声尖叫。

8 stash   

v.藏或贮存于一秘密处所；n.隐藏处

参考例句：

• Stash away both what you lost and gained,for life continues on.将得失深藏心底吧，为了那未来的生活。
• That's supposed to be in our private stash.这是我的私人珍藏。

9 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

10 kit   

n.用具包，成套工具；随身携带物

参考例句：

• The kit consisted of about twenty cosmetic items.整套工具包括大约20种化妆用品。
• The captain wants to inspect your kit.船长想检查你的行装。

11 buck   

n.雄鹿，雄兔；v.马离地跳跃

参考例句：

• The boy bent curiously to the skeleton of the buck.这个男孩好奇地弯下身去看鹿的骸骨。
• The female deer attracts the buck with high-pitched sounds.雌鹿以尖声吸引雄鹿。

12 dime   

n.（指美国、加拿大的钱币）一角

参考例句：

• A dime is a tenth of a dollar.一角银币是十分之一美元。
• The liberty torch is on the back of the dime.自由火炬在一角硬币的反面。

13 maker   

n.制造者，制造商

参考例句：

• He is a trouble maker，You must be distant with him.他是个捣蛋鬼，你不要跟他在一起。
• A cabinet maker must be a master craftsman.家具木工必须是技艺高超的手艺人。

14 psychology   

n.心理，心理学，心理状态

参考例句：

• She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
• He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。

15 subsiding   

v.（土地）下陷（因在地下采矿）( subside的现在分词 )；减弱；下降至较低或正常水平；一下子坐在椅子等上

参考例句：

• The flooded river was subsiding rapidly. 泛滥的河水正在迅速退落。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Gradually the tension was subsiding, gradually the governor was relenting. 风潮渐渐地平息了。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）

16 rumors   

n.传闻( rumor的名词复数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷v.传闻( rumor的第三人称单数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷

参考例句：

• Rumors have it that the school was burned down. 有谣言说学校给烧掉了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Rumors of a revolt were afloat. 叛变的谣言四起。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

18 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

19 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

20 ramping   

土堤斜坡( ramp的现在分词 )； 斜道； 斜路； （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯

参考例句：

• The children love ramping about in the garden. 孩子们喜欢在花园里追逐嬉戏，闹着玩。
• Have you ever seen a lion ramping around? 你看到过狮子暴跳吗？

21 corps   

n.(通信等兵种的)部队；(同类作的)一组

参考例句：

• The medical corps were cited for bravery in combat.医疗队由于在战场上的英勇表现而受嘉奖。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

22 buffers   

起缓冲作用的人（或物）( buffer的名词复数 )； 缓冲器； 减震器； 愚蠢老头

参考例句：

• To allocate and schedule the use of buffers. 分配和计划缓冲器的使用。
• Number of times the stream has paused due to insufficient stream buffers. 由于流缓冲区不足导致流程暂停的次数。

23 retailer   

n.零售商(人)

参考例句：

• What are the retailer requirements?零售商会有哪些要求呢？
• The retailer has assembled a team in Shanghai to examine the question.这家零售商在上海组建了一支团队研究这个问题。

24 irrational   

adj.无理性的，失去理性的

参考例句：

• After taking the drug she became completely irrational.她在吸毒后变得完全失去了理性。
• There are also signs of irrational exuberance among some investors.在某些投资者中是存在非理性繁荣的征象的。

25 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

26 salesperson   

n.售货员，营业员，店员

参考例句：

• A salesperson works in a shop.售货员在商店工作。
• Vanessa is a salesperson in a woman's wear department.凡妮莎是女装部的售货员。