PBS高端访谈:为什么好消息也令金融市场动荡不安?

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: It was another tough day for the financial markets, capping a volatile¹ week, one marked by anxiety over interest rates, the dollar, and falling oil prices, among other things.

　　More puzzling in some ways, there was good economic news earlier this week, and that still seemed to upset investors². What's happening here? And does the volatility³ of recent weeks suggest the end of a bull market?

　　Well, Mark Vitner is a managing director and senior economist⁴ at Wells Fargo, and he joins me now.

　　So, Mark Vitner, how do you explain all this volatility and especially the downward move after this good news on jobs last week?

　　MARK VITNER, Wells Fargo: Well, I think it's really just part of the adjustment process.

　　We have had interest rates stuck at zero for eight years now, and the economy has improved to the point where the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates probably in June, but probably no later than September. They're almost definitely going up this year.

　　And that causes people to reassess how they position certain investments. Companies that are interest-rate sensitive are now falling out of favor. And we have got a lot else going on in the world that's unnerving the markets. The dollar has strengthened tremendously and has done it very fast. And we have had this incredible slide in oil prices, which you would think is a good thing, but it's got some people questioning why on earth are prices falling so far so fast.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, first, on interest rates, hasn't the Fed been giving a warning for months now that some hike in interest rates is coming? Why aren't there baked-in expectations about that now?

　　MARK VITNER: Well, you would think that people would be used to this idea. But the Fed's been thinking about raising interest rates for a long time, and it's the first time that we have ever had to start from zero. The federal funds rate is roughly around 10 basis points, and we have never had to move away from the zero interest bound before.

　　And folks are really wondering, how vulnerable is the economy, how well can we take a quarter-point or a half-point increase in interest rates over the next few months? My gut⁵ tells me that I think the economy is plenty strong, we will be able to withstand it. But the Fed will move cautiously, and it's still — it's the adjustment. It's the shift from having rates at zero for eight years to going in an interest rate — a rising interest rate environment that's unnerving the market.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, what about one of other things that you mentioned, and that is the strengthening dollar, strengthening against other currencies, especially the euro? What about that? What's behind that and how serious a concern is it?

　　MARK VITNER: Well, in terms of what's driving the dollar up, we're in a much different place than Europe is right now.

　　In many respects, the United States is the strongest economy in the developed world right now. We're — the Federal Reserve stopped purchasing bonds in our market well over a year ago, back in late 2013. The European Central Bank just embarked⁶ on their own quantitative⁷ easing, where they're purchasing securities.

　　And here, we're getting ready — we're getting set to raise interest rates, so capital is flowing into the United States. And that's likely to continue. But, again, is a stronger dollar, is it good news or bad news for the U.S.? It's good news. We have a trade deficit⁸. We import more than we export.

　　And the stronger dollar certainly is going to hurt parts of the economy. Some manufacturers will be disadvantaged. But for the economy overall, it increases our purchasing power. It will be a good thing. It's just the adjustment process in going from a — in going towards a stronger dollar that's so difficult to — for the financial markets to take.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: But, just very quickly, Americans, you're saying, should sleep soundly tonight, rather than lying awake, worrying about a lot of this?

　　MARK VITNER: Well, a lot of times, when the market goes down, people are like, woe⁹ is me, what's going on here?

　　You have to remember that, while we have had some big declines this past week, we're very close to all-time highs in the market. In valuations, I wouldn't say the stock market is overvalued, but it's fully¹⁰ valued. And so now that we're going into a different economic environment, one that's going to have a stronger dollar, one where interest rates are likely to rise a little — they're still likely to remain relatively¹¹ low — folks are going to have to adjust their portfolios¹² somewhat.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Mark Vitner with Wells Fargo, we thank you.

　　MARK VITNER: Good to be with you.

1 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 gut   

n.[pl.]胆量；内脏；adj.本能的；vt.取出内脏

参考例句：

• It is not always necessary to gut the fish prior to freezing.冷冻鱼之前并不总是需要先把内脏掏空。
• My immediate gut feeling was to refuse.我本能的直接反应是拒绝。

6 embarked   

乘船( embark的过去式和过去分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• We stood on the pier and watched as they embarked. 我们站在突码头上目送他们登船。
• She embarked on a discourse about the town's origins. 她开始讲本市的起源。

7 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

8 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

9 woe   

n.悲哀，苦痛，不幸，困难；int.用来表达悲伤或惊慌

参考例句：

• Our two peoples are brothers sharing weal and woe.我们两国人民是患难与共的兄弟。
• A man is well or woe as he thinks himself so.自认祸是祸，自认福是福。

10 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

11 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

12 portfolios   

n.投资组合( portfolio的名词复数 )；（保险）业务量；（公司或机构提供的）系列产品；纸夹

参考例句：

• Price risk arises in non-trading portfolios, as well as in trading portfolios. 价格风险中出现的非贸易投资，以及在贸易投资组合。 来自互联网
• How do we fatten our portfolios and stay financially healthy? 我们怎样育肥我们的投资结构和维持财政健康呢？ 来自互联网