PBS高端访谈:为什么美联储会加息 这又会对消费者有何影响?

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: After years of holding interest rates at near zero level, the Federal Reserve has entered a new phase, where short-term rates may be rising with greater regularity¹, as they did again today.

　　Jeffrey Brown looks at how the Fed has changed its outlook for the economy and the path ahead for policy-makers.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: In the past, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen has expressed concerns about the strength of the recovery. But, today, she told reporters, "We have confidence in the robustness² of the economy and its resilience to shocks."

　　David Wessel joins me now for some Fed tea reading. He's with the Brookings Institution and a contributing correspondent to The Wall Street Journal.

　　David, a largely positive message, right, that sustainable growth continues and can continue. What is the Fed seeing?

　　DAVID WESSEL, Brookings Institution: Well, the Fed is seeing that unemployment has come down to the level that they consider full employment.

　　They seem to have a great deal of confidence that the economy has finally got some momentum³. Janet Yellen cited the confidence of the business community and consumers that is showing up in surveys. So, I — and she was very, very upbeat, I think.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Slightly higher inflation, but at a reasonable level, right? So, they're not worried about overheating this point.

　　DAVID WESSEL: They're finally getting to their goals of getting inflation close to 2 percent, getting unemployment down.

　　She noted⁴ that the labor⁵ force participation⁶ rate, the fraction of people who are working or looking for work seems to be going up a little bit, even though we have an aging population. So, she seemed to be very happy with the way the economy is going.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: But clearly signaling that this is the trend, right, that there will be more hikes to come?

　　DAVID WESSEL: This is the trend, but gradual. There was a lot of talk about gradual.

　　If you look at the forecast that the members of the Fed's policy-making committee said, they're basically seeing a couple of interest rate increases this year. That would still get us to, like, maybe 1.5 percent by the beginning of next year, still very, very low.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: So, you put together today and this kind of trend, what impact on consumers?

　　DAVID WESSEL: Well, this will mean that people are going to pay more to borrow. Mortgage rates have already gone up. They're around 4.2 percent for a 30-year mortgage. They were below 4 percent just a few months ago.

　　People will see — who borrow on their credit cards will see more. And, eventually, although it always takes a long time, people who have money in the banks, savings⁷ accounts, certificates of deposit, will see those rates start to creep up.

　　为什么美联储会加息 这又会对消费者有何影响?

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Now, there has been a lot of discussion in recent weeks, especially as the Fed rates — raises the rates, vs. this — with a steady growth in mind — vs. the president, who talks about a real push forward, right?

　　DAVID WESSEL: Right.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: And really getting the economy going.

　　DAVID WESSEL: I think what the Fed fears is that, if Donald Trump⁸ gets big tax cuts and big spending increases that take effect right now, when the economy is close to full employment, they will have to raise rates more rapidly.

　　But Janet Yellen made clear that they're raising rates now without much anticipation⁹ of a big fiscal¹⁰ move. If they get one, I suspect they will raise rates more rapidly. She did, of course, make the point that if Congress and the president could agree on things that get the long-term growth rate up, the rate of productivity growth or bringing more people into the work force, that's something that the Fed would applaud.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: We heard her talk — she was asked a little bit about relations with the new administration. It's always a little delicate dance a bit, right?

　　DAVID WESSEL: Yes. I think she was prepared for the question. Right?

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Yes, clearly.

　　DAVID WESSEL: She said wonderful things about the treasury¹¹ secretary. She said she had met Donald Trump.

　　I think her attitude is going to be, we have an independent Central Bank for a reason. I'm going to do what I think is right.

　　And I suspect that people at the Fed realize that, at some point, they're likely to be the target of an angry Donald Trump tweet when he thinks they're raising rates too fast.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: And just very quickly, in the meantime, the stock market just keeps going up, even with the rates going up.

　　DAVID WESSEL: Right.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: They don't seem to matter.

　　DAVID WESSEL: The stock market was relieved that the Fed didn't sound tougher today, and the stock market seems to figure that everything they like about Donald Trump will come true, and everything they're afraid of about Donald Trump will not come true.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: David Wessel, thank you, as always.

　　DAVID WESSEL: You're welcome.

1 regularity   

n.规律性，规则性；匀称，整齐

参考例句：

• The idea is to maintain the regularity of the heartbeat.问题就是要维持心跳的规律性。
• He exercised with a regularity that amazed us.他锻炼的规律程度令我们非常惊讶。

2 robustness   

坚固性，健壮性；鲁棒性

参考例句：

• There were other reasons for concern about the robustness of an economic recovery. 人们还有其他一些原因对经济恢复的健全程度表示关心。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• Robustness analysis attracts more and more attention in these years. 鲁棒性分析是近几年学术界较为关注的问题。 来自互联网

3 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

4 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

5 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

6 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

7 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

8 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

9 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

10 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

11 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。