PBS高端访谈:欧元的贬值会结束欧洲经济的回暖势头么?

 　　JEFFREY BROWN: And we explore this more now with economist¹ Jacob Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University.

　　And, Ken² Rogoff, let me start where our piece just ended. How bad is the overall economic situation in Europe and what is the European Central Bank going to do about it?

　　KENNETH ROGOFF, Harvard University: Well, growth is zero, inflation is zero, and the economy doesn't look bright from here.

　　And the European Central Bank would like to stimulate³ the economy much more than it has. The Germans have resisted that. They're very averse⁴ to inflation. But I think things have gotten so bad that they will get overruled, and the ECB will start to look more like the Federal Reserve.

　　But it's not so easy. Certainly, they face a tough road going ahead.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: And, Jacob Kirkegaard, it's interesting, because that's the opposite of what the U.S. is doing, right? The Central Bank is not doing that, is not stimulating⁵ anymore.

　　JACOB KIRKEGAARD, Peterson Institute for International Economics: No, I think one of the main reasons why we're seeing this movement in the currency markets is exactly that, the sort of opposite directions of monetary⁶ policies in the U.S. and in the euro area, where obviously the euro area is going to do more stimulus⁷ going forward, whereas the main debate in the Federal Reserve is when to raise interest rates, rather than begin buying sovereign bonds.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: And just briefly⁸ explain, how does this European Central Bank acting⁹ that way decrease the value of the euro?

　　JACOB KIRKEGAARD: Well, basically, it acts as — when it starts buying any type of asset, it essentially¹⁰ creates more money.

　　And, at the same time, you're going to have a situation where interest rates are going to remain essentially zero in the euro area, so you are going to have a yield differential. It's basically going to be more profitable to have your money and your assets in dollars, as opposed to the euro, which obviously creates these effects.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: All right, so, Ken Rogoff, then we look at Greece. And, boy, we three and others talked about Greece for many years running now, and a lot of it looks very much the same. Has something new happened here?

　　KENNETH ROGOFF: Well, I think it is inevitable¹¹ that Greece is going to rebel from the programs that it has.

　　Now, let's understand they're not really paying a lot now. Now, the payments are back-loaded. But, nevertheless, having all that debt coming due even many years from now puts a pall¹² over investment. It certainly depresses the economy. They need to make transfers to Greece. They need to write Greece's debt down.

　　The problem is they realize, when they do that, they need to do it for some of the other periphery¹³ countries, Portugal, Spain, Ireland. Frankly¹⁴, I think they should. I think it's inevitable. But there's incredible intransigence¹⁵, not just in Germany, with writing down debt, but also in France — and France and Italy with reforming their economies.

　　This is really pushing them. Every time they're pushed, they seem to do just enough to keep it going, and I think the markets are a little calmer about that than they might have been a few years ago, but they're very far from finding a solution.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Is there, Jacob Kirkegaard, a real possibility of Greece leaving the Eurozone this time? Because that's also something we have also talked about over the years.

　　JACOB KIRKEGAARD: No. I think that the likelihood that Greece will drop out of the euro is very, very small.

　　And I think, actually, if you look at the recent rumors¹⁶ that you also mentioned in the beginning of this segment, it's essentially, I would call it from the department of dirty political tricks, because you have an election in Greece that's basically between a narrative¹⁷ of fear and a narrative of anger.

　　If the Greek voters are angry, they're going to vote for the opposition¹⁸, but, if they're fearful about the future, they're going to vote for the current government. So what you have these anonymous¹⁹ German officials doing is by saying, well, maybe Greece can drop out of the euro or maybe it can't, but we don't really know, is creating more mayhem and more fear ahead of the election.

　　But I don't think the likelihood that Greece is going to drop out has gone up, because the reality remains²⁰ that the vast majority of Greeks wants to stay in the euro, because I think they correctly perceive that if they drop out, the situation will be even worse.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: So, as we look — Ken Rogoff, as we look at the euro dropping, there are winners and losers, right? It's not all necessarily a bad, including for Europeans. Tell us a little bit about winners and losers.

　　KENNETH ROGOFF: It's not a bad thing at all.

　　The European company is weak. The U.S. economy is strong. In fact, it's been a puzzle that the euro hasn't dropped more over the past few years. I think it's basically a healthy development. I mean, obviously, American tourism, places in the United States that have tourists, they lose European tourists, Europe gets American tourists.

　　If there's an American car manufacturer competing with a European car manufacturer, at the margin²¹, they lose. But I wouldn't overdramatize this. Badly. Europe needs this stimulus badly. It's very helpful for the global economy. And, by the way, the oil prices falling is something good for everyone.

　　So this is not all an ugly picture in Europe. Greece, yes. The euro falling, the falling oil prices, actually, it's going to give a bit of a boost to a region that badly needs it.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Do we see, Jacob Kirkegaard, much of an impact on the U.S. economy as — with a weaker Europe? We even saw today of course the big stock market dropping. Most of that is about oil prices, right?

　　JACOB KIRKEGAARD: Yes, I don't think the effect is going to be that big. You basically have two main sort of channels.

　　One is of course slightly lower U.S. exports to Europe. And something else that will matter for some U.S. multinational²² companies is that the value of the profits that they derive²³ from their large affiliates²⁴ in Europe in euros be worth less in dollars.

　　But, ultimately, this is not going to affect the U.S. economy very much. And, as Ken said, this is actually what we would want. We want the euro to go down to help stimulate the European economy.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: Just very briefly, is there a point at which too far down is too far down, where it does get serious?

　　JACOB KIRKEGAARD: Yes.

　　I mean, there's no doubt that you can have a situation where markets can overshoot. But, so far, in this gradual decline that we have seen vis-a-vis the dollar is, in my opinion, fully²⁵ in line with economic fundamentals. And were it to drop further to, say, 110 or something like that, I also think that would be fully in line with fundamentals.

　　JEFFREY BROWN: All right, Jacob Kirkegaard, Ken Rogoff, thank you both very much.

　　KENNETH ROGOFF: Thank you.

　　JACOB KIRKEGAARD: Thank you.

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

3 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

4 averse   

adj.厌恶的；反对的，不乐意的

参考例句：

• I don't smoke cigarettes,but I'm not averse to the occasional cigar.我不吸烟，但我不反对偶尔抽一支雪茄。
• We are averse to such noisy surroundings.我们不喜欢这么吵闹的环境。

5 stimulating   

adj.有启发性的，能激发人思考的

参考例句：

• shower gel containing plant extracts that have a stimulating effect on the skin 含有对皮肤有益的植物精华的沐浴凝胶
• This is a drug for stimulating nerves. 这是一种兴奋剂。

6 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

7 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

8 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

9 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

10 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

11 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

12 pall   

v.覆盖，使平淡无味；n.柩衣，棺罩；棺材；帷幕

参考例句：

• Already the allure of meals in restaurants had begun to pall.饭店里的饭菜已经不像以前那样诱人。
• I find his books begin to pall on me after a while.我发觉他的书读过一阵子就开始对我失去吸引力。

13 periphery   

n.(圆体的)外面；周围

参考例句：

• Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe.从地理位置上讲，英国处于欧洲边缘。
• The periphery of the retina is very sensitive to motion.视网膜的外围对运动非常敏感。

14 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

15 intransigence   

n.妥协的态度；强硬

参考例句：

• He often appeared angry and frustrated by the intransigence of both sides.他似乎常常为双方各不相让而生气沮丧。
• Yet for North Korea,intransigence is the norm.不过对朝鲜来说，决不妥协是其一贯作风。

16 rumors   

n.传闻( rumor的名词复数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷v.传闻( rumor的第三人称单数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷

参考例句：

• Rumors have it that the school was burned down. 有谣言说学校给烧掉了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Rumors of a revolt were afloat. 叛变的谣言四起。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

18 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

19 anonymous   

adj.无名的；匿名的；无特色的

参考例句：

• Sending anonymous letters is a cowardly act.寄匿名信是懦夫的行为。
• The author wishes to remain anonymous.作者希望姓名不公开。

20 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

21 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

22 multinational   

adj.多国的，多种国籍的；n.多国籍公司，跨国公司

参考例句：

• The firm was taken over by a multinational consulting firm.这家公司被一个跨国咨询公司收购。
• He analyzed the relationship between multinational corporations and under-developed countries.他分析了跨国公司和不发达国家之间的关系。

23 derive   

v.取得；导出；引申；来自；源自；出自

参考例句：

• We derive our sustenance from the land.我们从土地获取食物。
• We shall derive much benefit from reading good novels.我们将从优秀小说中获得很大好处。

24 affiliates   

附属企业( affiliate的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• She affiliates with an academic society. 她是某学术团体的成员。
• For example, these security affiliates participated in the floating of 19,000,000,000 of issues in 1927. 例如，这些证券发行机构在1927年的流通证券中，就提供了一百九十亿美元的证券。

25 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。