【双语有声阅读】盲目乐观的好处 The Optimism Bias

The Optimism Bias¹

 

盲目乐观的好处

We like to think of ourselves as rational creatures.

我们喜欢把自己当作理智的生物。

We watch our backs, weigh the odds², pack an umbrella.

我们总会提防背后的危险，权衡胜负的几率，随身携带雨伞以防下雨。

But both neuroscience and social science suggest that we are more optimistic than realistic.

但神经学和社会学都揭示，我们的乐观性大于现实性。

On average, we expect things to turn out better than they wind up being.

一般而言，我们总会把事情想得比真实情况更好一些。

People hugely underestimate their chances of getting divorced,losing their job or being diagnosed with cancer;

人们会大大低估他们离婚，失业或得癌症的可能性；

expect their children to be extraordinarily³ gifted;

期望自己的孩子拥有非凡的天分；

envision themselves achieving more than their peers;

想象自己能比同辈获得更大的成就；

and overestimate⁴ their likely life span.

人们也会高估自己的寿命。

The belief that the future will be much better than the past and present is known as the optimism bias.

这种相信未来会比过去和现在好得多的想法被称为乐观主义偏见。

It abides⁵ in every race, region and socioeconomic bracket.

它存在于每个种族，地区和社会经济阶层。

Schoolchildren playing when-I-grow-up are rampant⁶ optimists⁷,but so are grownups:

玩等我正大后游戏的学童是典型的乐观主义者。而成年人也一样。

a recent study found that adults over 60 are just as likely to see the glass half full as young adults.

最近一项调查发现，超过60岁的成年人和年轻的成年人一样倾向于还有半杯水的乐观主义看法。

You might expect optimism to erode⁸ under the tide of news about violent conflicts,high unemployment, tornadoes⁹ and floods and all the threats and failures that shape human life.

当人们淹没在暴力冲突，高失业率，龙卷风，洪水等负面新闻以及生活中的威胁和失败的潮水中时，你可能会觉得乐观主义会被逐渐磨灭。

Collectively we can grow pessimistic-about the direction of our country or the ability of our leaders to improve education and reduce crime.

总体而言我们会变得悲观—对我们国家的走向，或是领导人改善教育，减少犯罪的能力。

But private optimism, about our personal future,remains incredibly resilient.

但个人的乐观主义—关于我们个人的未来—却难以置信地丝毫未减。

A survey conducted last year found that while 70% thought families in general were less successful than in their parents' day,76% of respondents were optimistic about the future of their own family.

去年的一项调查显示，尽管70%的受访者认为现在的家庭普遍没有他们父辈时那么成功，却有76%的人对他们自己家庭的未来表示乐观。

Overly positive assumptions can lead to disastrous¹⁰ miscalculations-make us less likely to get health checkups,apply sunscreen or open a savings¹¹ account,and more likely to bet the farm on a bad investment.

过于积极的设想可能会导致灾难性的的失算。它使我们不大会想到去做体检，抹防晒霜，或开储蓄账户；同时很可能使你把所有家产押在糟糕的投资上。

But the bias also protects and inspires us:it keeps us moving forward rather than to the nearest high-rise ledge¹².

但这种偏见也会保护和鼓舞我们:它使我们不断前进，而不是去寻找最近的高台。

Without optimism,our ancestors might never have ventured far from their tribes and we might all be cave dwellers,still huddled¹³ together and dreaming of light and heat.

没有乐观主义，我们的祖先可能永远不会远离他们的部落去冒险，我们可能都还群居在洞穴里，挤在一起梦想着光和热。

To make progress,we need to be able to imagine alternative realities- better ones-and we need to believe that we can achieve them.

要寻求发展，我们必须想象出不同的现实—更好的现实—并且要相信我们能够实现。

Such faith helps motivate us to pursue our goals.

这样的信念可以为我们追求目标提供动力。

Optimists in general work longer hours and tend to earn more.

乐观主义者通常会工作更长的时间，也更可能赚得更多。

Economists¹⁴ at Duke University found that optimists even save more.

杜克大学的经济学家发现，乐观主义者甚至会有更多的储蓄。

And although they are not less likely to divorce,they are more likely to remarry-an act that is,as Samuel Johnson wrote,the triumph of hope over experience.

虽然他们离婚的几率不会比别人低，但他们更容易再婚—如塞缪尔?约翰逊曾写到的，这是希望战胜了经验。

1 bias   

n.偏见，偏心，偏袒；vt.使有偏见

参考例句：

• They are accusing the teacher of political bias in his marking.他们在指控那名教师打分数有政治偏见。
• He had a bias toward the plan.他对这项计划有偏见。

2 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

3 extraordinarily   

adv.格外地；极端地

参考例句：

• She is an extraordinarily beautiful girl.她是个美丽非凡的姑娘。
• The sea was extraordinarily calm that morning.那天清晨，大海出奇地宁静。

4 overestimate   

v.估计过高，过高评价

参考例句：

• Don't overestimate seriousness of the problem.别把问题看重了。
• We overestimate our influence and our nuisance value.我们过高地估计了自己的影响力和破坏作用。

5 abides   

容忍( abide的第三人称单数 )； 等候； 逗留； 停留

参考例句：

• He abides by his friends. 他忠于朋友。
• He always abides by the law. 他素来守法。

6 rampant   

adj.(植物)蔓生的；狂暴的，无约束的

参考例句：

• Sickness was rampant in the area.该地区疾病蔓延。
• You cannot allow children to rampant through the museum.你不能任由小孩子在博物馆里乱跑。

7 optimists   

n.乐观主义者( optimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Even optimists admit the outlook to be poor. 甚至乐观的人都认为前景不好。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Optimists reckon house prices will move up with inflation this year. 乐观人士认为今年的房价将会随通货膨胀而上涨。 来自辞典例句

8 erode   

v.侵蚀，腐蚀，使...减少、减弱或消失

参考例句：

• Once exposed,soil is quickly eroded by wind and rain.一旦暴露在外，土壤很快就会被风雨侵蚀。
• Competition in the financial marketplace has eroded profits.金融市场的竞争降低了利润。

9 tornadoes   

n.龙卷风，旋风( tornado的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Tornadoes, severe earthquakes, and plagues create wide spread havoc. 龙卷风、大地震和瘟疫成普遍的毁坏。 来自互联网
• Meteorologists are at odds over the working of tornadoes. 气象学者对龙卷风的运动方式看法不一。 来自互联网

10 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

11 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

12 ledge   

n.壁架，架状突出物；岩架，岩礁

参考例句：

• They paid out the line to lower him to the ledge.他们放出绳子使他降到那块岩石的突出部分。
• Suddenly he struck his toe on a rocky ledge and fell.突然他的脚趾绊在一块突出的岩石上，摔倒了。

13 huddled   

挤在一起（huddle的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• We huddled together for warmth. 我们挤在一块取暖。
• We huddled together to keep warm. 我们挤在一起来保暖。

14 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》