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国际干预马里战乱可能遇到意外危险

With French troops driving back Islamist rebels in northern Mali, West African forces are expected to step in and help secure the country for new elections. This regional response has important implications for international efforts to fight terrorism.

法国向马里北部出兵，打得伊斯兰反政府武装节节后退，预计西非国家也将向马里派兵，帮助维持治安，准备新的选举。法国在马里的行动对国际反恐斗争会产生哪些影响呢？

French troops advancing against Islamist militants¹ in Mali say their fight is not over until the country is reunited and al-Qaida-affiliated terrorists are driven from the north. French President Francois Hollande says it is a campaign that requires the active support of international allies.

法国军队不断向马里境内的伊斯兰反政府武装发动攻势。他们说，他们会一直战斗到马里重新统一，反政府武装被赶出北部地区为止。法国总统奥朗德说，这一行动需要国际盟友的支持。

"Our objective was to stop the terrorist offensive. That is done. It was to allow Malians to win back cities that had been occupied by terrorists. That is being done now. And then the objective is to allow an international force to take over to allow Mali to get back its territorial² integrity, and we know that it will take some more time," said Hollande.

他说：“我们的目标是阻止恐怖主义攻势，这个已经做到了。我们要让马里人夺回被恐怖份子占领的城市，这个目标也在实现。我们还要让国际部队接管，让马里恢复领土完整，这个我们知道需要更长的时间。”

ECOWAS gears up

Leaders from the Economic Community of West African States - or ECOWAS - are moving to get that force going.

西非国家经济共同体成员国正在组建部队，准备向马里出兵。

Africa specialist Jennifer Cooke at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said it is important to move quickly.

美国战略与国际问题研究所的非洲问题专家杰尼佛.库克认为，非洲国家派兵要快，这很重要。

"This looks like it may be a longer-fought battle just pushing the militants back from their advance southward by the French. The ECOWAS troops will take some time to get up and deployed³ into northern Mali," said Cooke.

“法国阻止不断向南推进的激进分子的战斗可能持续更长的时间。西非国家经济共同体部队组建和进驻马里北部也需要一些时间。”

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said there is strong international support for that deployment⁴.

美国国务卿希拉里.克林顿说，国际社会坚决支持西共体在马里部署军队。

"These are some of the most remote places on the planet, very hard to get to, difficult to have much intelligence from. So there is going to be lot of work that has to go into our efforts," said Clinton.

“这些是地球上最偏远的地方，很难进入，也很难从当地获得情报，所以有很多工作要做。”

Nigeria takes lead

Nigerian troops already are arriving in Mali. Nigeria's leadership of the West African force comes as the government in Abuja faces its own violence by Islamist militants from a group known as Boko Haram.

尼日利亚军队已陆续抵达马里。尼日利亚在西非武装力量中发挥领导作用，与此同时，尼日利亚政府也受到伊斯兰主义极端组织的暴力袭击。

Charles Dokubo of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs said that confronting extremists in Mali is part of Nigeria's efforts to stop the expansion of a broader terrorist network.

尼日利亚国际事务研究所的查理斯.多库伯说，尼日利亚参与打击马里的极端主义分子，也是为了防止恐怖主义网络不断扩大。

"If this threat is not fully⁵ contained from there, then eventually they'll have to pay a bigger price for dealing⁶ with intervention⁷ in the country if it spreads to Nigeria and you have a mixture of what we have in Nigeria, and the one that's coming from outside," said Dokubo.

“必须完全遏制恐怖威胁， 否则尼日利亚就不得不付出更大的代价，如果威胁蔓延到尼日利亚，他们就不得不对付国内和国外的恐怖势力。”

But with Nigerian troops criticized by human rights groups for attacking civilians⁸ while fighting against Boko Haram, analyst⁹ Cooke said al-Qaida in Mali has an opening to incite¹⁰ Nigerians against their own military.

人权组织谴责尼日利亚军队在打击恐怖组织博科圣地的同时对平民发动袭击。分析人士杰尼佛.库克说，马里境内的基地分子将趁机煽动尼日利亚人反对本国军队。

"Deploying¹¹ against al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and the associated groups up there opens them up to vulnerabilities at home, as it does for all the other ECOWAS troops getting involved," said Cooke.

“这些军队到马里去对付伊斯兰马格里布基地组织，很容易受到恐怖分子的煽动，所有西非共同体国家组织都有这个问题。”

U.S. officials expect that West African troops in Mali supporting the French offensive will operate much like the African force in Somalia, where Western allies provide intelligence, logistics, and training to regional soldiers fighting alongside the national army to restore order.

美国官员期待在马里境内支持法国军事行动的西非武装力量会像索马里境内的非洲部队那样。西方盟国向他们提供情报，后勤，并且向跟政府军携手作战的地区武装部队提供训练。