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美联储可能缩减刺激经济措施

Investors¹ are watching nervously² as the U.S. central bank considers when to reduce its efforts to stimulate³ the economy. Many economists⁴ predict that the cuts will come sometime next year, while others say it might be as soon as next Wednesday.

投资人正在密切关注美联储何时缩减刺激经济措施。许多经济学家预测，这个缩减可能会在明年某个时间发生，不过也有人说，它快则下星期三就会来到。

Stock prices plunged⁵ earlier this year when the U.S. central bank said it might gradually reduce stimulus⁶ efforts.

今年初当美联储说它可能逐渐减少刺激经济的措施时，股价一时为之下跌。

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said a strengthening economy would, eventually, no longer needed the boost it got from a huge program of bond purchases.

美联储主席伯南克说，一个正在增强的经济，最终将不会再需要以购买债券的巨大项目来给予刺激。

"If the incoming data support the view that the economy can sustain a reasonable cruising speed, we will ease the pressure on the accelerator by gradually reducing the pace of purchases," he said.

伯南克说：“如果我们收到的数据支持这种观点，如果经济可以保持在一个合理的行进速度，我们将放缓对加加速器的压力，逐渐放慢购买债券的步调。”

The National Association for Business Economics said its economists saw growth improving this year, rising to a three percent annual rate next year.

美国全国企业经济协会说，它的经济学家认为今年的经济增长将有所改善，明年则有可能达到百分之3的年增长率 。

The group's survey of its members said stronger growth meant less need for stimulus this year, and made cuts nearly certain next year.

这个组织对其会员进行的问卷调查说，强劲的增长意味着今年对刺激的需要减少，也让明年缩减刺激的可能变成几乎可以确定。

National Defense⁷ University Professor Nayantara Hensel designed the survey. “The bulk of our panelists think there is an 80 percent probability that the Fed is going to taper⁸ off in 2014,” she said.

设计这个问卷的美国国防大学教授韩塞尔说：“我们大部分成员认为，有百分之80的可能美联储的刺激会在2014年慢慢减少。”

The Fed has been trying to boost economic growth since the recession sharply increased unemployment.

自从经济不景气导致失业率显著增加后，美联储一直在设法刺激经济增长。

First, it cut short-term interest rates to nearly zero and pledged to keep them ultra-low until unemployment falls to 6.5 percent or lower.

首先，它将短期利息降低到将接近零，并承诺会维持这种超低利率，直到失业率降到百分之6.5或更低为止。

Then it created a second program to cut long-term interest rates, making it easier for families to borrow money for new homes and easier for businesses to raise capital for new equipment.

接着，它设立了第2个项目来降低长期利率，让一般家庭能容易贷款买新的住房，企业容易增资购买新设备。

Under the program, the Fed is buying $85 billion in securities each month. So cutting that stimulus would reduce those purchases.

美联储在这个项目下，每个月购买了8百50亿美元的债券。所以只要缩减这种刺激，家庭和企业的购买也会跟着减少。

Hensel said not all the data supported a cutback. “We are seeing sort of some economic growth, but not as sudden and as significant as one might expect,” she said.

韩塞尔说，并非所有的数据都支持缩减经济刺激：“我们看到一些经济增长，不过它不像我们预期的那么突然和明显。”

And a survey of the American Institute of Certified⁹ Public Accountants showed some members were worried that renewed wrangling¹⁰ over taxes and government spending in Congress could discourage investments needed for growth.

另外，美国注册会计师协会的一个问卷调查显示，它的一些成员担忧，美国国会对税收和政府开支的争论将阻碍经济增长所需要的投资。

Gary Lubin, CEO of Centerphase Solutions, helped organize the survey and spoke¹¹ to VOA via Skype.

美国Centerphase Solution公司的执行长盖瑞?卢宾协助组织这个问卷调查。他通过Skype接受美国之音采访。

“The debt ceiling, sequestration, issues around patent protection and some international business practices - all really create a certain level of uncertainty¹² which leads to some apprehension¹³ or some holding back of items, for example capital spending,” he said.

卢宾说：“举债上限、自动减支、涉及专利保护的议题，以及一些国际商业行为，这些都会制造某种程度的不确定，从而导致一些忧虑，或暂时压住一些项目，例如资本支出。”

Top officials of the U.S. Federal Reserve are scheduled to meet next Tuesday and Wednesday for debate on economic policy.  On Wednesday, Bernanke is scheduled to meet with journalists to explain the changes - if any - in the bank’s strategy.

美联储高层官员预订下星期二、星期三开会来讨论经济政策。伯南克预订星期三举行记者会，说明美联储采取的策略，或策略是否有任何改变。