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叙利亚危机中伊朗保持低调

Syria’s main ally, Russia, has taken on a central role in the effort to get President Bashar al-Assad to give up his chemical weapons.  But his key regional ally, Iran, has kept a lower profile. Experts say the Syria conflict is a challenge for Iran, but it may be able to turn the new diplomatic approach to its advantage.

叙利亚重要盟友俄罗斯是促使阿萨德总统放弃化学武器的主要力量。可是阿萨德的地区盟友伊朗却保持低调。专家表示，叙利亚冲突是对伊朗的挑战，不过伊朗可能把新的外交努力变成对它的有利因素。

The presidents of Syria’s two top allies met last week, and Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, took the opportunity to praise Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new role on Syria.

叙利亚及其两个主要盟国的总统上星期举行会晤，伊朗新总统鲁哈尼借机赞扬俄罗斯总统普京在叙利亚问题上的新立场。

He expressed hope that Russian diplomacy¹ will avert² what he called “a new war,” an apparent reference to threatened U.S. airstrikes.

他表示，希望俄罗斯的外交努力可以避免引发他所说的“新的战争”，明显是指美国空袭的威胁。

Iran may have good reason to welcome any easing of tensions on Syria, according to Iran watcher Mark Fitzpatrick at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies.

伦敦国际战略研究所的马克?菲茨帕特里克说，伊朗有很好的理由欢迎任何缓和叙利亚局势的行动。

“As much as Syria is a complicated problem for Western nations, it’s immensely more complicated for Iran," noted³ Fitzpatrick. " I think that in many ways, Syria is becoming like Vietnam for Iran, a mess that they’re stuck in and they can’t get out of.”

他说：“尽管叙利亚问题对西方国家来说很复杂，可是对伊朗更要复杂得多。我认为在很多方面，叙利亚就像是伊朗的越南，他们身陷困境，无法摆脱。”

Exiled Iranian journalist Amir Taheri calls that “an exaggeration,” but said Iran has invested significant resources in Syria for what he said are ideological⁴ reasons.

伊朗流亡新闻工作者阿米尔?塔赫里说，这种说法“太夸张”，不过他说，出于意识形态原因，伊朗在叙利亚投入了重大资源。

“The problem is Iran is a split personality," he explained. "Iran as a revolution has an interest in Syria.  Iran as a country doesn’t have any interest in Syria.  Rouhani wants to make Iran a country again.”

Western leaders hope President Rouhani will take a more constructive⁵ approach in talks on Iran’s nuclear program, and the new head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency has said as much.

西方领导人希望鲁哈尼总统在伊朗核项目谈判中采取更有建设性的态度，伊朗原子能机构主席萨利希说：

"I've come here with a message of my newly elected president to further enhance and expand our ongoing⁶ cooperation with the agency and with the aim to put an end to the so-called Iranian nuclear file," remarked Ali Akbar Salehi during a speech to the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency.

“我带来了新当选总统的信息，进一步加强和扩大我们和国际机构的合作，结束所谓的伊朗核事件。”

Fitzpatrick said President Rouhani may want to use a hoped-for Syria peace conference to improve relations with the West, and to enhance his role in Iran’s foreign policy.

菲茨帕特里克说，鲁哈尼总统可能会利用希望中的叙利亚和平会议，来改善和西方的关系，加强他在伊朗外交政策中的地位。

“The best case for Iran is probably if Iran can be invited to Geneva Two, and that Rouhani’s hand can be strengthened because he can talk to the United States about issues that matter to Iran, not just the nuclear issue that matters to the United States,” he said.

他说：“伊朗最好的结果是，如果伊朗受邀参加日内瓦美俄会谈，鲁哈尼的力量可能会加强，因为他可以就伊朗问题和美国谈判，不仅是和美国有关的核问题。”

But Iran’s supreme⁷ leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would need to back the plan.  And Amir Taheri does not expect that to happen.

可是伊朗的最高领袖哈梅内伊必须支持这个计划。塔赫里认为这不太可能。

“Mr. Khamenei, who is the supreme guy, is very much committed to preventing President Assad from falling," Taheri said. "But the real issue is who will reshape the Middle East, the United States and its allies or Iran and its allies? And for the time being, the side on which Iran fights has won.”

他说：“哈梅内伊是最高领袖，他致力于防止阿萨德下台。可是真正的问题是，谁来重整中东格局，是美国及其盟国，还是伊朗及其盟国？目前，伊朗的盟国暂时获胜。”

Taheri said that will make Ayatollah Khamenei less interested in compromise with the West, and may cancel out any effort by President Rouhani to use the Syria issue to push a more moderate agenda.

塔赫里说，这个情况下，哈梅内伊不但更不可能向西方妥协，而且还可能消除鲁哈尼总统利用叙利亚问题来推动更为温和政策的努力。