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专家建议不要匆忙买入推特股票

Another social media giant is going public. Twitter, the online micro-blogging service, launches its initial public offering (IPO) of stock on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday.  Interest in owning a slice of the popular social networking site has been high - helping¹ to boost share prices nearly 25 percent higher ahead of its launch.  But should you buy into the hype?

又一个社交媒体巨头成为上市公司。网上微博服务公司推特10月7号星期四在纽约证券交易所首次公开募股。投资人对拥有这个热门社交网站的股份充满热情，使推特的股价还没上市就猛涨了近百分之25。那么你是否应当强势买进呢？

It’s the biggest technology IPO since Facebook.  And if all goes as planned, Twitter could sell as many as 80 million shares priced between $23 to $25 apiece.  That would generate about $2 billion, giving Twitter a market value of $14 billion. But is it really worth it?

这是自脸书上市以来首次公开募股的最大技术类公司。如果一切按预想的走，推特能以每股23至25美元的价格卖出8千万股，总值约20亿美元，使推特的市值达到140亿美元。但推特股果真这么值钱吗？

Professor Aswath Damodaran at the Stern School of Business in New York says the numbers are just a starting point - based on what bankers think investors² are willing to pay.

纽约斯特恩商学院的达莫达兰教授在接受美国之音采访时说，这些数字不过是一个计算起始点，而它根据的是银行家认为投资者愿意出多少钱买进。

He spoke³ with VOA via Skype.

“They’re pricing Twitter based on what Facebook is trading for, and Linked-in is trading for.  They’re not valuing the company.  To value the company you’ve got to go back to basics:   What are the revenues, what are the margins⁴, what are the profits?  I personally think from a valuation perspective that 23 to 25 is too high," said Damodaran.

达莫达兰说：“他们是参考脸书和链接股票的交易价格为推特定价的。他们没有评估这个公司。如果评估一个公司，你必须得看基本面，比如公司的收入，利润率，盈利，等等。我个人认为23到25美元这个股价预期是太高了。

Damodaran says that doesn’t mean investors won't make money.  But unless you’re willing to monitor stock prices daily, he advises  amateur investors to stay away.

达莫达兰说，这并不意味着投资者赚不到钱。但是除非你愿意每天盯着股价的变化，否则业余投资人最好还是站远点。

“I’d say wait for Twitter to settle down.  The first year or two after a company goes public, it’s really going to go through waves of momentum⁵ that are very difficult to forecast. So you have to make a decision whether you’re a trader or an investor," he said.

“我建议等推特稳定下来再说。通常，一个公司上市的头一两年都会经历非常难以预测的起起伏伏。所以你得拿定主意，是交易还是投资。”

Part of the problem is that Twitter has yet to prove it can make a profit.  And despite its large user base, it still lags behind other social networks, says market analyst⁶ Nate Elliott.

部分问题在于，推特还没有证明自己可以盈利。市场分析师埃利奥特说，推特尽管有大量的用户，但是仍比不上其他社交网络。

"According to our survey data, less than one-fourth of U.S. online users go to Twitter every month. It's not a bad number, but it's far behind what Facebook claims as active users in the U.S.," said Elliott.

“根据我们的调查数据，在美国的网民中，每个月使用推特的人不到四分之一。这个数字当然也不错，但比脸书所称在美国的活跃用户少多了。”

The challenge for Twitter is not just how it expands but how it generates enough advertising⁷ revenue - without driving away 230 million users worldwide.

推特面临的挑战不仅是如何扩张，还有如何产生足够的广告收入，同时又不让全世界2亿3千万用户因为厌烦广告而离开。

Whether Twitter can do that remains⁸ to be seen.

推特是否能做到这一点还有待观察。

Facebook, which made its public debut⁹ amid intense hype last year, lost nearly half its value in the first four months.  It’s now trading about 30 percent higher than when it first  launched.  Experts say Twitter could go through similar growing pains.  So before you buy, wait for the dust to settle.

脸书去年大张旗鼓地上市，结果头四个月股价就跌了近一半。现在脸书的股价比最初上市时上涨了大约百分之30。专家说，推特可能会经历类似的生长痛，所以最好等尘埃落定之后再买进。