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现代科技提升天气预报精准度

Severe storms that cause heavy damage throughout the world are a reminder¹ of how important it is to be able to predict the weather. A meteorological exhibition in Brussels earlier this month featured the latest technology to help improve our ability to forecast the weather and better prepare for its effects.On October 17, Hurricane Gonzalo hit the island of Bermuda, knocking down trees and power lines, and making roads and streets impassable. The damage was substantial. But thanks to early warnings from forecasters, residents were able to prepare and no deaths or serious injuries were reported.

一些给全球各地带来巨大灾难的风暴提醒人们准确预报天气的重要性。本月早些时候在布鲁塞尔举办的国际气象科技世界博览会展示了最新科技如何帮助人们提升预报天气的能力，以更好的应对极端天气。10月17日(星期五)，飓风“贡萨洛”袭击百慕大群岛，刮倒树木和电线，导致大小道路无法通行。破坏虽然严重，但是多亏了天气预报带来的提前预警，居民们可以有所准备，所以并没有严重伤亡的报道。

Scientists say weather systems are notoriously hard to predict because so many variables have to be taken into account. But increasingly sophisticated algorithms and accessibility to supercomputers are making weather prediction much easier.The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric² Administration (NOAA) says its new storm prediction system, called NEIS, collects millions of data points from all over the world to create a four-dimensional model of the world’s weather.

科学家说到，众所周知，天气系统很难预测，因为需要考虑太多的变量。但是伴随着复杂的算法和超级计算机的使用，预测天气比以前容易了许多。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）表示，他们最新风暴预测系统NEIS（地球信息系统），能够从世界各处的数百万数据采集点搜集数据，建立起一个全球天气的四维模型。

Agency director Alexander MacDonald said the storms created by the computer model are very similar to real ones that have been observed in recent years.

NOAA地球系统研究实验室主任亚历山大?麦克唐纳（Alexander MacDonald）说，在屏幕左边的卫星图像是2010年10月侵袭中国的巨大风暴，这个图像和右边由电脑模型创建出的图像十分相似。

“So this really shows the skill that we are developing, when we run a computer model and Mother Nature does the same thing with the real world and they are pretty alike. We are excited a lot about these improvements,” said MacDonald.

他说:“当电脑模型上发生的事情和现实发生在大自然中的事情十分相像的时候，就能显示出我们正在研发的技术。我们对于这些进展十分兴奋。”

Air pollution is another modern calamity³ that affects large cities and industrial areas. So its adverse⁴ effect on health also makes its timely measurement important.Alan Taylor, Director of the Britain-based company Turnkey Instruments, said their device, called Topas, uses lasers to monitor the air for particulates⁵.But, he said, providing accurate measurement does not solve the problem.

空气污染是另一个影响大城市和工业区域的现代灾难。由于它给人身健康带来的不利影响，对它的及时测量也很重要。总部位于英国的特肯（Turnkey）仪器公司主管艾兰?泰勒（Alan Taylor）说，他们叫做“Topas”的检测仪利用激光来监测空气微粒。但他也说到，只提供准确的数据并不能解决问题。

“It's what cities do about it when they know about it. Do they stop traffic going through, do they stop trucks going through? So we can get that information, but what the city does with that information is a different situation,” said Taylor.

“大城市知道这些数据之后怎么做才是问题的关键，”他说，“他们会不让卡车等车辆上路吗？我们可以得到这些数据，但是城市拿到数据之后采取什么行动，那就是不同的情形了。”

Even in cities that do not have pollution problems, it is important to measure other atmospheric conditions, like the level of pollen⁶, which can make life miserable⁷ for those who are allergic⁸ to it.University of Geneva research team leader Svetlana Afonina said their new instrument, called Plair, uses an optical detector⁹ with ultraviolet laser technology.

甚至在一些没有污染问题的城市，对其他大气成分的测量也是很重要的。比如说测量空气中的花粉含量，它会对一些对花粉过敏的人群带来很大的生活困扰。日内瓦大学研究团队带头人斯维特拉娜?埃佛尼娜（音译 Svetlana Afonina）说，他们叫做“Plair”的新仪器就是利用紫外线激光技术进行光学检测。

“The device is highly specific and allows identification of different kind of particles in the atmosphere. We are able to measure and detect different species of pollen in the real time,” said Afonina.

她说： “这个仪器非常精准，而且它可以识别空气中不同种类的微粒。我们可以实际测量并鉴定各种花粉种类。”

The Brussels exhibition, now in its fifth year, drew more than 2,500 people from around the world to see the latest weather and climate change forecasting technology.

今年是布鲁塞尔博览会的第五年，它吸引了来自世界各地超过两千五百人前来参观预报天气和气候变化的最新科技。