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美联储结束量化宽松但维持低利率

The U.S. Federal Reserve says it is ending its bond-buying program this week, but it assured investors¹ that short-term interest rates would remain near zero for some time.

美联储表示，本周停止被称为量化宽松的债券购买计划，但向投资人保证在一段时期内将短期利率维持在近于零的水平。

The announcement came amid growing worries about the global economy and recent market volatility².

在这一决定宣布之际，有越来越多的人对全球经济和最近的股市动荡感到担忧。

The bond program was a 37-month, $1.6 trillion experiment aimed at kick-starting the U.S. economy and stimulating³ job creation. Economists⁴ said it provided consumers and businesses with cheap capital and kept interest rates near record lows.

这像是一个经济时代的结束：长达37个月、耗资1.6万亿美元的量化宽松尝试计划旨在重振美国经济和刺激就业。经济学家认为，量化宽松的实施给消费者和企业提供了廉价资本并把利率维持在几乎是历史最低的水平。

The decision, announced as the Fed wrapped up a two-day policy meeting, is validation⁵ that the U.S. economy is improving, said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth⁶ Financial.

随着美联储结束为期两天的政策会议，它宣布结束这一庞大的债券购买计划。Commonwealth Financial的首席投资官布拉德?麦克米伦：

“The Fed is actually explicitly⁷ saying for about the first time that we’re starting to plan for more accelerated growth than what we’ve seen in the past," McMillan said. "They’re saying we’ve made substantial improvement, and they’re starting to actually act on that. And I think that’s a significant step forward.”

“美联储基本上第一次明确地说，根据最近一段时期的经济表现，要针对经济增长加快的状况调整计划。美联储是说，经济已经有了很大的改善，它要因此进行调整。我认为向前迈出的重大一步。”

On Wall Street, the reaction was less enthusiastic. Major indexes saw a minor⁸ sell-off as investors pondered the Fed’s willingness to raise interest rates. That might have been due to the Fed's modification⁹ of the time frame for rate hikes from “a considerable time” in the future to sooner, depending on economic data. That’s taking a somewhat more assertive¹⁰ tone, said Greg McBride, Bankrate.com’s senior financial analyst¹¹.

但华尔街的反应却并不那么积极。各大股指反应出少量抛售，原因是投资人考虑美联储可能会提高利率。这或许是因为美联储把提升利率的时间范围从“相当长的一段时间后”改为更快但取决于经济表现。

“I think the statement actually read a little bit more hawkish¹² than expected, more so than last month, meaning that there’s more affirmation of the economy doing well and I think more of an emphasis on the fact that eventually they’re going to have to focus on moving interest rates up,” McBride said.

Bankrate.com的高级金融分析师格雷格?麦克布赖德说：“我认为美联储的决定比人们预期的要更激进一些，比上个月更大胆，意味着进一步肯定美国经济表现良好。我认为，这也意味着美联储将会把精力放在是否提高利率上。”

Most analysts¹³ think rate hikes won’t happen until at least the middle of next year. Less clear is the impact on the global economy as the U.S. central bank applies the brakes on monetary¹⁴ stimulus¹⁵.

大多数分析人士认为，美联储至少要等到明年中期才会提高利率。但美联储终止货币刺激政策会给全球经济带来什么样的影响现在还不明朗。

Speaking at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, investment guru Mohamed El-Erian said more volatility should be expected, especially in foreign exchange markets, "because we’re going from a world of multispeed central banking¹⁶ to multitrack central banking."

彼得森国际经济研究所的投资专家埃里安表示，人们要为更多市场动荡做好准备，特别是外汇市场。“我们看到世界各地的央行正在从以不同速度的调控转变为不同轨道的调控。”

"In the old days," El-Erian said, "everyone was doing the same thing, just different magnitudes. Now, we have two central banks that are lifting their foot off the accelerator — the Bank of England and the Fed — and we have two other central banks that are putting their foot more on the accelerator — the ECB (European Central Bank) and the Bank of Japan."

“过去，所有央行都做同样的事，只是程度不同。现在有两个国家的央行停止刺激措施，分别是英格兰银行和美联储，而另外还有两大央行在加大刺激力度，分别是欧洲央行和日本央行。”

Experts say rising rates could lead to more investment dollars flowing into the U.S., further slowing growth in emerging markets. But, they add, a higher-valued dollar would also make U.S. exports more expensive.

专家表示，利率提升会导致更多资金流向美国，从而造成新兴市场国家的增长进一步放缓。但他们还说，美元升值会使美国出口成本上升。