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财富杂志 为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(1)

时间:2020-09-21 06:11来源:互联网 提供网友:nan   字体: [ ]
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    (单词翻译:双击或拖选)

For a chorus of the leading voices in investing, it was the monster rally whose time had come.

对于投资界的领军人物而言,大牛市的时代已经到来。

For about five years, a group of sages1, including value-investing boldface names Jeremy Grantham, Mark Mobius, and Rob Arnott,

在大约五年的时间里,包括价值投资界知名人物Jeremy Grantham、Mark Mobius以及Rob Arnott在内的

kept pronouncing that shares of companies in emerging markets offered the world's rarest blend of attractions:

一群大佬一直宣称,新兴市场中的公司股票具备世界上最罕见的吸引力:

deep-discount prices compared with U.S. equities2, cheap currencies,

与美国股市相比,其价格大幅折让、货币贬值,

and the prospect3 of robust4 growth driven by a burgeoning5 population of youthful middle-class workers and consumers—

以及由不断增长的新兴中产阶级和消费者驱动的强劲增长的前景——

all factors that long promised a powerful comeback in the beaten-down sector6.

长期以来,所有这些因素都预示着这个不被看好的行业将强势回归。

Two years ago, their prophecies came true. Valuations in emerging markets—

两年前,他们的预言成真。新兴市场——

a group of some 25 countries defined by low but growing per capita incomes, rapid industrialization, and zigzagging7 currencies—took flight.

约有25个国家,其定义是人均收入低但仍在增长,工业化迅速,货币走势曲折——的估值大幅上升。

In the 24 months beginning in late January 2016,

在自2016年1月起的24个月内,

shares in the benchmark MSCI emerging markets index surged 85%, beating the S&P 500 by 31 percentage points.

基准MSCI新兴市场指数飙升85%,比标准普尔500指数高出31个百分点。

Despite the sprint8, emerging markets looked as if they had plenty of room to run.

尽管经历了冲刺期,但新兴市场似乎还有充足的运作空间。

Not only did they still boast a lot more earnings9 per dollars paid for equities in the developed world,

他们不仅吹嘘在发达国家,每一美元支付给股票的收益要高得多,

they also now benefited from what they had long lacked: surging optimism and powerful momentum10.

而且现在还从长期或缺的东西中获益:高涨的乐观情绪以及强大的动力。

Then the revival11 suddenly collapsed12. After peaking on Jan. 26, the MSCI dropped 22%, seven times the fall in the S&P 500,

然后复兴突然崩塌。1月26日达到巅峰后,MSCI下跌22%,是标准普尔500指数跌幅的七倍,

crushed by negative news about a looming13 U.S. trade war with China and debt crises in Turkey and Argentina.

这是受到了即将爆发的中美贸易战,以及土耳其和阿根廷债务危机等负面消息的影响。

But for investors14 rummaging15 for bargains, the drop is a gift.

但对于搜寻便宜货的投资者来说,跌幅是一件礼物。

It has sent the gap in valuations between stocks in developed and developing countries back to near-record levels,

这使得发达和发展中国家股票之间的估值差距回到接近纪录水平,

making the always-speculative index particularly attractive. As Arnott, chief of Research Affiliates16,

让这个总是投机的指数尤其具有吸引力。锐联资产管理公司是一家为互惠基金

a firm that designs and manages indexes for mutual17 funds and ETFs, told Fortune: "Emerging markets are the buy of the decade."

和ETF设计和管理指数的一家公司,其负责人告诉《财富》:“新兴市场是这十年最值得买入的。”

In a letter to clients, Grantham, cofounder of asset-management giant GMO, said he was putting half his family's retirement18 funds into the sector.

在致客户的一封信中,资产管理巨头GMO的联合创始人Grantham表示,他将一半的家庭退休基金都投入了这个行业。

As for Mobius, a pioneer of emerging-markets investing who retired19 earlier in the year from Franklin Templeton Investments,

至于Mobius,他是新兴市场投资的先驱,今年年初从富兰克林邓普顿投资公司退休,

he's raising more than $500 million to take advantage of what he calls the "phenomenal opportunity" caused by the recent turmoil20 in the sector.

他正在筹集5亿多美元,以利用最近该行业动荡带来的“非凡机会”。

Emerging markets offer a classic high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity.

新兴市场提供了一个经典的高风险、高回报的投资机会。

The countries that fit the description represent 40% of the world's economic output as measured by gross domestic product

按照国内生产总值衡量,符合描述的国家占世界经济产出的40%,

but just 12% of global stock market value. The potential for high growth is associated with countries

但只占全球股市价值的12%。高增长的潜力与从严重依赖农业和原材料出口

moving rapidly from heavy dependence21 on agricultural and raw-materials exports into finished goods manufacturing and services.

迅速转向制成品制造业和服务业的国家有关。

That said, higher growth prospects22 come with greater volatility23, especially owing to high political, currency, and other risks.

但更高的增长前景伴随着更大的波动性,特别是由于较高的政治、汇率和其他风险。

This explains the valuation/GDP mismatch, and it's also why emerging-markets investment strategies fall in and out of favor so frequently.

这就解释了估值和GDP之间的错误搭配,也是新兴市场投资策略频繁起起落落的原因。


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 sages 444b76bf883a9abfd531f5b0f7d0a981     
n.圣人( sage的名词复数 );智者;哲人;鼠尾草(可用作调料)
参考例句:
  • Homage was paid to the great sages buried in the city. 向安葬在此城市的圣哲们表示敬意。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Confucius is considered the greatest of the ancient Chinese sages. 孔子被认为是古代中国最伟大的圣人。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
2 equities 501c457a1f918a4b41824052f5a3f5eb     
普通股,股票
参考例句:
  • These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
  • They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。
3 prospect P01zn     
n.前景,前途;景色,视野
参考例句:
  • This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
  • The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。
4 robust FXvx7     
adj.强壮的,强健的,粗野的,需要体力的,浓的
参考例句:
  • She is too tall and robust.她个子太高,身体太壮。
  • China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道,中国希望保持经济强势增长,以减少贫困和失业状况。
5 burgeoning f8b25401f10e765adc759ee165d5c1c5     
adj.迅速成长的,迅速发展的v.发芽,抽枝( burgeon的现在分词 );迅速发展;发(芽),抽(枝)
参考例句:
  • Our company's business is burgeoning now. 我们公司的业务现在发展很迅速。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • These efforts were insufficient to contain the burgeoning crisis. 这些努力不足以抑制迅速扩散的危机。 来自辞典例句
6 sector yjczYn     
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形
参考例句:
  • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
  • The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。
7 zigzagging 3a075bffeaf9d8f393973a0cb70ff1b6     
v.弯弯曲曲地走路,曲折地前进( zigzag的现在分词 );盘陀
参考例句:
  • She walked along, zigzagging with her head back. 她回头看着,弯弯扭扭地向前走去。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • We followed the path zigzagging up the steep slope. 我们沿着小径曲曲折折地爬上陡坡。 来自互联网
8 sprint QvWwR     
n.短距离赛跑;vi. 奋力而跑,冲刺;vt.全速跑过
参考例句:
  • He put on a sprint to catch the bus.他全速奔跑以赶上公共汽车。
  • The runner seemed to be rallied for a final sprint.这名赛跑者似乎在振作精神作最后的冲刺。
9 earnings rrWxJ     
n.工资收人;利润,利益,所得
参考例句:
  • That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
  • Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。
10 momentum DjZy8     
n.动力,冲力,势头;动量
参考例句:
  • We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
  • The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。
11 revival UWixU     
n.复兴,复苏,(精力、活力等的)重振
参考例句:
  • The period saw a great revival in the wine trade.这一时期葡萄酒业出现了很大的复苏。
  • He claimed the housing market was showing signs of a revival.他指出房地产市场正出现复苏的迹象。
12 collapsed cwWzSG     
adj.倒塌的
参考例句:
  • Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
  • The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。
13 looming 1060bc05c0969cf209c57545a22ee156     
n.上现蜃景(光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼)v.隐约出现,阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 );隐约出现,阴森地逼近
参考例句:
  • The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看,在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望
14 investors dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99     
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
  • a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会
15 rummaging e9756cfbffcc07d7dc85f4b9eea73897     
翻找,搜寻( rummage的现在分词 ); 海关检查
参考例句:
  • She was rummaging around in her bag for her keys. 她在自己的包里翻来翻去找钥匙。
  • Who's been rummaging through my papers? 谁乱翻我的文件来着?
16 affiliates 8039227006b7ce850a1cb99be5471e50     
附属企业( affiliate的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • She affiliates with an academic society. 她是某学术团体的成员。
  • For example, these security affiliates participated in the floating of 19,000,000,000 of issues in 1927. 例如,这些证券发行机构在1927年的流通证券中,就提供了一百九十亿美元的证券。
17 mutual eFOxC     
adj.相互的,彼此的;共同的,共有的
参考例句:
  • We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
  • Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。
18 retirement TWoxH     
n.退休,退职
参考例句:
  • She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
  • I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。
19 retired Njhzyv     
adj.隐退的,退休的,退役的
参考例句:
  • The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
  • Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。
20 turmoil CKJzj     
n.骚乱,混乱,动乱
参考例句:
  • His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
  • The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。
21 dependence 3wsx9     
n.依靠,依赖;信任,信赖;隶属
参考例句:
  • Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
  • He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。
22 prospects fkVzpY     
n.希望,前途(恒为复数)
参考例句:
  • There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
  • They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。
23 volatility UhSwC     
n.挥发性,挥发度,轻快,(性格)反复无常
参考例句:
  • That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
  • Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而,由于相当长的时间里波动性小,灾难短视就获胜了。
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