财富杂志 为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(4)

Also, their government debt loads, generally averaging less than 50% of GDP,

此外，他们的政府债务负担平均不到GDP的50%，

are far less burdensome than those of many major economies, including Japan (253%) and the United Kingdom (85%).

远低于许多主要经济体的负担，包括日本（253%）和英国（85%）。

And emerging markets hold 80% of the world's people.

新兴市场拥有全球80%的人口。

Both Research Affiliates¹ and GMO predict far higher future returns in emerging markets compared with U.S. stocks, despite the volatility².

尽管市场波动较大，但锐联资产管理和GMO均预测新兴市场的未来回报远高于美国股市。

Both point to a gap in valuations that's unjustified by fundamentals.

两者都表明，估值差距并不符合基本原理。

The best measure, they say, is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings³ ratio, or CAPE⁴, developed by Yale economist⁵ Robert Shiller.

他们说，最好的衡量标准是周期性地调整市盈率，即由耶鲁大学经济学家Robert Shiller提出的CAPE。

It uses a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings as the denominator, correcting for temporary peaks and valleys in earnings.

其使用经通胀调整后的10年平均收益作为分母，对收益的暂时峰值和低谷进行修正。

Today, the CAPE for the S&P 500 stands at 31.1, vs. 12.5 for emerging markets.

如今，标准普尔500指数的CAPE为31.1，而新兴市场的CAPE为12.5。

"That means emerging-market stocks are 60% cheaper than U.S. stocks," says Arnott.

“这意味着新兴市场股票比美国股票便宜60%，”Arnott说到。

Earnings growth of 3.8% in emerging markets is just a bit better than in the U.S., says Research Associates.

新兴市场3.8%的收入增幅仅略高于美国，Research Affiliates说到。

In part, that's because big companies headquartered in those countries face competitive factors similar to those of the U.S. and European giants.

这在一定程度上是因为总部位于这些国家的大公司面临着与欧美巨头类似的竞争因素。

But dividend⁶ yields of 3.1% are well above the 1.9% offered by the U.S. benchmark S&P 500. (Yields reflect dividends⁷ as a percentage of prices.)

但3.1%的股息收益率远高于美国基准标普500指数1.9%的收益率。（收益率反映股息占价格的百分比。）

Then there's the lure⁸ that so many emerging-market stocks are so darn cheap.

还有一个诱惑是，许多新兴市场股票都非常便宜。

Rising valuations, says Brightman of Research Affiliates, should add another 1% a year.

Research Affiliates的Brightman表示，不断上升的估值应该每年再增加1%。

Add all the components⁹, and emerging-market stocks should return around 10% annually¹⁰ over the next decade.

所有因素加在一起，在未来十年内，新兴市场股票的年回报率应该约为10%。

Research Affiliates' forecast for the U.S.: 2.6%. GMO is less optimistic but believes a 5.2% annual return is probable.

Research Affiliates对美股的预测为2.6%。GMO就没那么乐观，但也认为5.2%的年回报率是有可能的。

Still, it thinks U.S. stocks, hit by a steady contraction¹¹ in valuations, will fare miserably¹², saddling investors¹⁴ with average annual losses of 3.2% through 2025.

但其认为，受到估值持续缩水的打击，美股表现将会很糟糕，到2025年，投资者将承受3.2%的平均年跌幅。

Those rich emerging-market returns come at a price—a performance chart that careens from sharp spikes¹⁵ to jolting¹⁶ drops.

新兴市场丰厚的回报是需要付出代价的——一张从飙升到暴跌的表现图。

According to Research Affiliates, emerging-market stocks are 50% more volatile¹⁷ than U.S. equities¹⁸.

根据Research Affiliates，新兴市场股市波动性比美国股市高出50%。

In two-thirds of all the months you own them, you can expect 6% swings to be normal. That's a lot of lurching around.

在你持有这些股票的三分二的时间里，你可以预计6%的波动是正常的。周围颠簸重重

Thorndike of GMO explains why braving the roller coaster is worth it.

GMO的Thorndike解释了为什么冒险坐过山车是值得的。

"The great thing about cheap," he says, "is that as an investor¹³, you don't need anything great to happen.

“便宜的好处，”他说，“就是作为投资者，你不需要什么好事情发生。”

You just need a lot of bad things not to happen."

你只需要不发生太多坏事就行了。”

It's possible that this basket of stocks will get worse before it gets better, so you need to take the long view.

这一揽子股票有可能在好转之前变得更糟，所以你需要看得长远。

When pessimism¹⁹ is much too high, and prices are much too low, that's the perfect time to pounce²⁰.

当悲观情绪过高，且价格过低时，就是出击的最佳时机。

1 affiliates   

附属企业( affiliate的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• She affiliates with an academic society. 她是某学术团体的成员。
• For example, these security affiliates participated in the floating of 19,000,000,000 of issues in 1927. 例如，这些证券发行机构在1927年的流通证券中，就提供了一百九十亿美元的证券。

2 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

3 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

4 cape   

n.海角，岬；披肩，短披风

参考例句：

• I long for a trip to the Cape of Good Hope.我渴望到好望角去旅行。
• She was wearing a cape over her dress.她在外套上披着一件披肩。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 dividend   

n.红利，股息；回报，效益

参考例句：

• The company was forced to pass its dividend.该公司被迫到期不分红。
• The first quarter dividend has been increased by nearly 4 per cent.第一季度的股息增长了近 4%。

7 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

8 lure   

n.吸引人的东西，诱惑物；vt.引诱，吸引

参考例句：

• Life in big cities is a lure for many country boys.大城市的生活吸引着许多乡下小伙子。
• He couldn't resist the lure of money.他不能抵制金钱的诱惑。

9 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

10 annually   

adv.一年一次，每年

参考例句：

• Many migratory birds visit this lake annually.许多候鸟每年到这个湖上作短期逗留。
• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。

11 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

12 miserably   

adv.痛苦地；悲惨地；糟糕地；极度地

参考例句：

• The little girl was wailing miserably. 那小女孩难过得号啕大哭。
• It was drizzling, and miserably cold and damp. 外面下着毛毛细雨，天气又冷又湿，令人难受。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

14 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

15 spikes   

n.穗( spike的名词复数 )；跑鞋；（防滑）鞋钉；尖状物v.加烈酒于( spike的第三人称单数 )；偷偷地给某人的饮料加入（更多）酒精（ 或药物）；把尖状物钉入；打乱某人的计划

参考例句：

• a row of iron spikes on a wall 墙头的一排尖铁
• There is a row of spikes on top of the prison wall to prevent the prisoners escaping. 监狱墙头装有一排尖钉，以防犯人逃跑。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 jolting   

adj.令人震惊的

参考例句：

• 'she should be all right from the plane's jolting by now. “飞机震荡应该过了。
• This is perhaps the most jolting comment of all. 这恐怕是最令人震惊的评论。

17 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

18 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

19 pessimism   

n.悲观者，悲观主义者，厌世者

参考例句：

• He displayed his usual pessimism.他流露出惯有的悲观。
• There is the note of pessimism in his writings.他的著作带有悲观色彩。

20 pounce   

n.猛扑；v.猛扑，突然袭击，欣然同意

参考例句：

• Why do you pounce on every single thing I say?干吗我说的每句话你都要找麻烦？
• We saw the tiger about to pounce on the goat.我们看见老虎要向那只山羊扑过去。