财富杂志 为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(3)

From early 2011 to the start of 2016, equities¹ tumbled 40%, measured in dollars.

从2011年早期到2016年年初，按美元计算，股市暴跌了40%。

For U.S. investors³, returns comprise two moving parts:

对于美国投资者来说，回报率包括两个变化的部分：

the trajectory⁴ of stock prices in local currencies and the exchange rate measuring the dollars the Chinese yuan or Brazilian real buys.

以本国货币计算的股价轨迹，以及衡量人民币或巴西雷亚尔兑美元的汇率。

A drop in exchange rates helped fuel the half-decade decline,

汇率下跌助长了长达五年的跌势，

a reversal in their currencies' fortunes fueled the 85% explosion starting in 2016,

始于2016年的货币财富逆转推动了85%爆炸式增长，

and another currency drop accounted for around one-third of the 20%-plus market decline from the heights in January.

市场从1月份的高点下跌了20%多，其中约三分之一是由于货币再次贬值造成的。

Emerging-market bulls rate the sectors⁵ risks to be greatly exaggerated.

看好新兴市场的人认为该行业的风险被严重夸大了。

For a disastrous⁶ spiral to take hold, a nation must be battling three negatives:

出现这种螺旋式上升，一个国家必须与三个负面因素斗争：

huge foreign (usually dollar) debt, a dearth⁷ of foreign reserves, and a trade deficit⁸.

巨大的外债（通常是美元），缺乏外汇储备以及贸易逆差。

In fact, only three countries face the full trio of headwinds: Argentina, Turkey, and Indonesia.

实际上，仅有三个国家面临着这三重逆风：阿根廷、土耳其以及印度尼西亚。

According to an analysis by Research Affiliates⁹, all three carry heavy dollar debt, and Argentina and Turkey are grappling with full-on crises.

根据锐联资产管理公司的分析，这三个国家都背负着沉重的美元债务，阿根廷和土耳其正在全力应对全面危机。

This year it took a $50 billion bailout from the International Monetary¹⁰ Fund to arrest the collapse¹¹ in the Argentine peso,

今年，其从国际货币基金组织获得了500亿美元的救助，以组织阿根廷比索崩溃，

and the country's central bank has hiked lending rates to 65%.

并且该国的中央银行将贷款利率大幅提升至65%。

Turkey's economy isn't in free fall, but it faces high inflation and a big balance of payment deficits¹².

土耳其的经济并不是处于自由落体状态，而是面临着高膨胀，且国际收支逆差大。

Relatively¹³ strong economic growth has enabled Indonesia to stabilize¹⁴ the rupiah by hiking rates to 5.75%.

相对强健的经济增长使印度尼西亚能够通过将利率提升至5.75%来稳定卢比。

Brazil and South Africa also merit concerns, if not as severe as the other three.

巴西和南非也值得关注，如果情况不像其他三个那么严重的话。

They have medium-size dollar debt loads and carry trade deficits that force them to borrow dollars.

他们的美元债务规模中等，并背负着迫使他们借入美元的贸易赤字。

"They're both flashing yellow," says Chris Brightman, chief investment officer for Research Affiliates.

“他们都需要谨慎，”锐联资产管理公司首席投资官Chris Brightman表示。

"But they also have large foreign reserves. And Brazil is finally emerging from a deep recession,

“但他们也都拥有大量外汇储备。并且巴西最终摆脱了严重的经济衰退，

while South Africa is lowering rates to restart growth."

而南非正在降低利率以恢复经济增长。

Argentina now rates high enough on "developed" metrics that it's not in the MSCI index, but as a past debt-crisis sufferer,

根据“发达”衡量标准（该指标不在MSCI指数中），阿根廷目前的利率已经足够高，但作为一个经历过债务危机的国家，

it still has the potential to stoke investor² concerns about other emerging markets.

它仍有可能引发投资者对其他新兴市场的担忧。

Put simply, the threat of a funding crisis in the nations that dominate the emerging-market index is minimal¹⁵.

简而言之，在新兴市场指数中占主导地位的国家发生融资危机的威胁很小。

"The Southeast Asian nations have not binged on dollar debt," says George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank.

“东南亚国家没有在美元债务中放纵，”Key Private Bank的首席投资官George Mateyo说到。

"They took their pain 20 years ago, and now all of emerging markets have been penalized¹⁶ with a broad brush."

“他们在20年前就经历过痛苦，现在所以新兴市场都受到了严厉的惩罚。”

What's more, even when emerging-market economies slow, they still grow faster than their grind-it-out, mature-economy counterparts.

此外，即使当新兴市场经济放缓，他们的增长速度仍然比那些已经筋疲力尽的成熟经济体要快。

Despite the downgrade, the IMF still expects developing economies to expand at 4.7% next year.

尽管降级，IMF仍然预计发展中经济体明年将以4.7%的速度增长。

The developed world is heading in the opposite direction.

发达国家正朝着反方向前进。

The agency forecasts that GDP expansion in the industrialized world will decline from 2.4% in 2018 to 2.1% next year.

该机构预计工业化世界的GDP扩张将从2018年的2.4%降至明年的2.1%。

"Keep in mind that the U.S. is in the 10th year of an economic up cycle, and emerging markets are in the second year,"

“要记住美国正处于经济上升周期的第10个年头，并且新兴市场在第二个年头，”

notes Chuck Knudsen, a portfolio¹⁷ specialist at T. Rowe Price.

T. Rowe Price的投资组合专家Chuck Knudsen指出。

1 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

2 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

5 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

7 dearth   

n.缺乏，粮食不足，饥谨

参考例句：

• There is a dearth of good children's plays.目前缺少优秀的儿童剧。
• Many people in that country died because of dearth of food.那个国家有许多人因为缺少粮食而死。

8 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

9 affiliates   

附属企业( affiliate的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• She affiliates with an academic society. 她是某学术团体的成员。
• For example, these security affiliates participated in the floating of 19,000,000,000 of issues in 1927. 例如，这些证券发行机构在1927年的流通证券中，就提供了一百九十亿美元的证券。

10 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

11 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

12 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

13 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

14 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

15 minimal   

adj.尽可能少的，最小的

参考例句：

• They referred to this kind of art as minimal art.他们把这种艺术叫微型艺术。
• I stayed with friends, so my expenses were minimal.我住在朋友家，所以我的花费很小。

16 penalized   

对…予以惩罚( penalize的过去式和过去分词 )； 使处于不利地位

参考例句：

• You will be penalized for poor spelling. 你拼写不好将会受到处罚。
• Team members will be penalized for lateness. 队员迟到要受处罚。

17 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。