财富杂志 为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(2)

So while experts pursuing emerging-markets investment strategies insist they present a buying opportunity,

所以虽然追求新兴市场投资策略的专家坚称，他们提供了一个买入机会，

to commonsense¹ civilians² and other skeptics, they look and feel like a trap. Who's right?

但对普通民众和其他持怀疑态度的人来说，它们看起来且感觉上都像是一个陷阱。谁是对的？

For the sake of prudence³, let's start with the considerable risks.

为了谨慎起见，让我们先从重要风险说起。

These involve understanding this year's big selloff and acknowledging that by betting on the likes of China, Mexico, and India,

其中涉及了解今年的大抛售，以及承认通过押注中国、墨西哥和印度，

investors⁴ are embarking⁵ on a potentially lucrative⁶ but almost certainly bumpy⁷ ride. Two principal factors triggered this year's drop:

投资者开始了一段可能有利可图但几乎肯定崎岖不平的旅程。两个主要因素触发了今年的下跌：

shock waves from moves by the Federal Reserve Bank that raised interest rates in the U.S.

美联储提高利率的冲击

and the rise in global trade tensions stoked by the Trump⁸ administration. Those factors, in turn, triggered a slowdown in emerging-market growth rates.

以及特朗普政府激起的全球贸易紧张局势。这些因素反过来触发了新兴市场增长率的减速。

What ensued was fear of a meltdown that could mirror the Asian debt crisis of 1997.

随之而来的是对经济崩溃的担忧，这可能与1997年的亚洲债务危机如出一辙。

A funding crisis occurs when companies borrow heavily in dollars,

当公司大量借入美元，

and investors lose confidence in the ability of national governments or leading corporations to cover the interest payments.

并且投资方对国家政府或龙头企业偿还利息的能力失去信心时，就会发生资金危机。

The lenders then refuse to refinance the debt, leading to a wave of bankruptcies⁹. That's what happened in the late 1990s.

贷方随后拒绝为债务再融资，导致了一波破产浪潮。这就是20世纪90年代末发生的事情。

"People read these headlines about countries with big currency problems, and given the disaster of 20 years ago, they get really scared," says GMO's John Thorndike.

“人们读到了关于国家遭遇巨大货币问题的新闻，鉴于20年前的灾难，他们真的害怕了，”GMO的John Thorndike表示。

Investors can be forgiven their concern, considering that funding crises have already hit Argentina and Turkey.

考虑到资金危机已经重创阿根廷和土耳其，投资方的担忧可以被原谅。

The Fed's rate hikes caused the U.S. dollar to spike¹⁰ relative to currencies in the developing world.

美联储加息导致美元兑发展中国家货币汇率飙升。

Many of those countries have underdeveloped capital markets, so their governments and companies borrow from abroad, frequently in dollars.

其中很多国家的资本市场都不发达，所以其政府和公司从国外借款，通常是美元。

As the greenback appreciates, they're forced to pay a lot more in Indonesian rupiah or Argentine pesos,

随着美元增值，他们被迫支付更多的印度尼西亚盾或阿根廷比索，

for example, to meet their dollar-denominated interest payments.

以支付以美元计价的利息。

Central banks then lift their own rates to prevent their currencies from sliding even more, a move that slows their economies,

随后央行抬高本行利率，以防止本国货币进一步贬值，此举减缓了他们的经济，

further curbing¹¹ the business and tax revenues needed to repay foreign lenders.

进一步抑制了需要偿还外国银行的商业和税收收入。

Since late 2017, Mexico, South Korea, Russia, Indonesia, and Turkey have all raised rates, with Turkey going this year from 8% to 24%.

自2017年底以来，韩国、俄罗斯、印尼和土耳其都提高了利率，其中土耳其今年将利率从8%提高到24%。

That vicious circle may cause a downgrade in their credit, so as principal payments on their debt come due,

这种恶性循环可能会导致它们的信用降级，因此当它们的债务本金到期时，

overseas banks demand double-digit rates to refinance their loans. The possible upshot: a replay of the defaults and devaluations of 20 years ago.

海外银行会要求两位数的利率来对它们的贷款进行再融资。可能的结果：20年前的违约和贬值重演。

The other peril¹² is volatility¹³. Emerging-market equities¹⁴ flourished in the run-up of global commodities prices

另一个危险是波动性。在本世纪头十年的大部分时间里，新兴市场股票在全球商品价格的急剧增长中繁荣，

for most of the 2000s as many involve resource-rich countries and net exporters.

因为其中许多股票都涉及资源丰富的国家和净出口国。

But then pricey currencies and falling prices for oil and other raw materials sent the sector¹⁵ into a five-year bear market.

但昂贵的货币和石油及其他原材料价格下跌将，让该行业进入了为期五年的熊市。

1 commonsense   

adj.有常识的；明白事理的；注重实际的

参考例句：

• It is commonsense to carry an umbrella in this weather.这种天气带把伞是很自然的。
• These results are no more than a vindication of commonsense analysis.这些结果只不过是按常理分析得出的事实。

2 civilians   

平民，百姓( civilian的名词复数 )； 老百姓

参考例句：

• the bloody massacre of innocent civilians 对无辜平民的血腥屠杀
• At least 300 civilians are unaccounted for after the bombing raids. 遭轰炸袭击之后，至少有300名平民下落不明。

3 prudence   

n.谨慎，精明，节俭

参考例句：

• A lack of prudence may lead to financial problems.不够谨慎可能会导致财政上出现问题。
• The happy impute all their success to prudence or merit.幸运者都把他们的成功归因于谨慎或功德。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 embarking   

乘船( embark的现在分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• He's embarking on a new career as a writer. 他即将开始新的职业生涯——当一名作家。
• The campaign on which were embarking was backed up by such intricate and detailed maintenance arrangemets. 我们实施的战争，须要如此复杂及详细的维护准备。

6 lucrative   

adj.赚钱的，可获利的

参考例句：

• He decided to turn his hobby into a lucrative sideline.他决定把自己的爱好变成赚钱的副业。
• It was not a lucrative profession.那是一个没有多少油水的职业。

7 bumpy   

adj.颠簸不平的，崎岖的

参考例句：

• I think we've a bumpy road ahead of us.我觉得我们将要面临一段困难时期。
• The wide paved road degenerated into a narrow bumpy track.铺好的宽阔道路渐渐变窄，成了一条崎岖不平的小径。

8 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

9 bankruptcies   

n.破产( bankruptcy的名词复数 )；倒闭；彻底失败；（名誉等的）完全丧失

参考例句：

• It's a matter of record that there were ten bankruptcies in the town last year. 去年这个城市有十家破产是事实。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Business bankruptcies rose 50 percent over the previous year. 破产企业的数量比前一年增加５０％。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件

10 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

11 curbing   

n.边石，边石的材料v.限制，克制，抑制( curb的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Progress has been made in curbing inflation. 在控制通货膨胀方面已取得了进展。
• A range of policies have been introduced aimed at curbing inflation. 为了抑制通货膨胀实施了一系列的政策。

12 peril   

n.(严重的)危险；危险的事物

参考例句：

• The refugees were in peril of death from hunger.难民有饿死的危险。
• The embankment is in great peril.河堤岌岌可危。

13 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

14 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

15 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。