2022年经济学人 美国通货膨胀再超预期（2）

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America is hardly alone in struggling with high prices.

美国并不是唯一一个在与高物价作斗争的国家。

Inflation in the euro area is expected to have risen to 8.6% in June.

欧元区6月通胀率预计已经升至8.6%。

But the details are different.

但细节是不同的。

Europe’s problems are more closely linked to surging gas costs, both exacerbating¹ the risk of an imminent² recession and perhaps limiting the European Central Bank’s scope for rate increases.

欧洲的问题与飙升的天然气价格联系更为密切，这既加剧了经济衰退迫在眉睫的风险，也可能限制了欧洲央行的加息空间。

That has hurt the euro, which has fallen by more than 10% since the start of the year, bringing it to parity³ with the dollar for the first time in two decades.

这对欧元造成了影响，自今年年初以来，欧元已下跌逾10%，20年来首次与美元平价。

The White House has tried to put as positive a gloss⁴ as possible on the figures.

白宫试图尽可能正面地粉饰这些数据。

Before the data release, it drew attention to the recent decline in petrol prices.

在数据发布之前，它让人们注意到最近汽油价格的下跌。

The national average is now about $4.63 per gallon, 5% lower than in June.

目前全国平均油价约为每加仑4.63美元，比6月份低了5%。

With the price of crude down by even more, that does probably set the stage for a lower inflation reading in July.

随着原油价格进一步下跌，这可能确实为7月份通胀率走低奠定了基础。

Moreover, President Joe Biden’s advisers⁵ have noted⁶ that an alternative gauge⁷ of inflation, the personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) price index, which is usually seen as more reliable by the Fed, has been more muted.

此外，总统乔·拜登的顾问们指出，另一种衡量通胀的指标，即美联储通常认为更可靠的个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数更为模糊不清。

Neither argument is all that reassuring⁸.

这两种说法都不能让人放心。

Energy prices have weakened over the past month, but with the war in Ukraine dragging on and winter looming⁹, they may resume their upward climb before long.

过去一个月，能源价格有所下降，但随着乌克兰战争的拖延和冬季的临近，能源价格可能很快就会恢复上升势头。

As for PCE inflation, it is indeed less extreme than CPI inflation, but it is still more than twice as high as the Fed’s 2% target, and rising prices for services such as health care may nudge it higher still.

至于PCE通胀，它确实没有CPI通胀那么极端，但仍是美联储2%目标的两倍多，而医疗保健等服务价格的上涨可能会进一步推高它。

The best news about inflation is that the Fed’s tightening¹⁰ is in fact gaining traction¹¹ in the crucial realm of expectations.

有关通胀的最好消息是，美联储的紧缩政策实际上在关键的预期领域获得了推动力。

The Fed cannot solve supply-chain snarls¹² or reduce oil prices.

美联储既不能解决供应链混乱，也不能降低油价。

Where it can be uniquely effective is in tempering the outlook for prices.

它唯一有效的地方是在缓和价格前景方面。

A basic measure of market expectations for annual inflation over the next five years is now 2.5%, down by more than a percentage point since March.

衡量市场对未来五年年度通胀率预期的基本指标现在是2.5%，自3月份以来下降了一个多百分点。

In the middle of June a closely watched consumer survey by the University of Michigan put expected annual inflation at 3.3% for the next five years; by the end of the month it was down to 3.1%.

6月中旬，密歇根大学一项备受关注的消费者调查显示，未来五年的预期年通胀率为3.3%；到月底时，这一数字降到了3.1%。

That is precisely¹³ what the Fed wants to see.

这正是美联储希望看到的。

Unfortunately, economists¹⁴, firms and investors¹⁵ are also busily ratcheting down their expectations for economic growth—a consequence the Fed cannot avoid.

不幸的是，经济学家、公司和投资者也在忙于降低他们对经济增长的预期--这是美联储无法避免的后果。

1 exacerbating   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• This pedagogical understretch is exacerbating social inequalities. 这种教学张力不足加重了社会不平等。 来自互联网
• High fertilizer prices are exacerbating the problem. 高涨的肥料价格更加加剧了问题的恶化。 来自互联网

2 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

3 parity   

n.平价，等价，比价，对等

参考例句：

• The two currencies have now reached parity.这两种货币现已达到同等价值。
• Women have yet to achieve wage or occupational parity in many fields.女性在很多领域还没能争取到薪金、职位方面的平等。

4 gloss   

n.光泽，光滑；虚饰；注释；vt.加光泽于；掩饰

参考例句：

• John tried in vain to gloss over his faults.约翰极力想掩饰自己的缺点，但是没有用。
• She rubbed up the silver plates to a high gloss.她把银盘擦得很亮。

5 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

6 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

7 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

8 reassuring   

a.使人消除恐惧和疑虑的，使人放心的

参考例句：

• He gave her a reassuring pat on the shoulder. 他轻拍了一下她的肩膀让她放心。
• With a reassuring pat on her arm, he left. 他鼓励地拍了拍她的手臂就离开了。

9 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

10 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

11 traction   

n.牵引；附着摩擦力

参考例句：

• I'll show you how the traction is applied.我会让你看如何做这种牵引。
• She's injured her back and is in traction for a month.她背部受伤，正在作一个月的牵引治疗。

12 snarls   

n.（动物的）龇牙低吼( snarl的名词复数 )；愤怒叫嚷（声）；咆哮（声）；疼痛叫声v.（指狗）吠，嗥叫， （人）咆哮( snarl的第三人称单数 )；咆哮着说，厉声地说

参考例句：

• I don't know why my hair snarls easily. 我不知道我的头发为什么容易缠结。 来自辞典例句
• She combed the snarls out of her hair. 她把头发的乱结梳理通。 来自辞典例句

13 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

14 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会